The following appeared in a memorandum from the CEO of a consumer electronics manufacturing firm to the head of the company's human resources department, who is responsible for hiring new employees: "Eight years ago, our firm's profits were increasing with each new employee we added. We discovered that each employee had the skills and motivation to generate more revenue for the firm than his or her salary cost us. However, for the past two years, our profit margin has been falling, even though we have continued to add employees. Thus, our newer employees are not generating enough revenue to justify their salaries. We must not be hiring new employees with the same level of skills and motivation as those we used to attract. Clearly, then, failures in the human resources department account for our falling profits." 请大家给点思路？
"Eight years ago, our firm's profits were increasing with each new employee we added. We discovered that each employee had the skills and motivation to generate more revenue for the firm than his or her salary cost us. However, for the past two years, our profit margin has been falling, even though we have continued to add employees. Thus, our newer employees are not generating enough revenue to justify their salaries. We must not be hiring new employees with the same level of skills and motivation as those we used to attract. Clearly, then, failures in the human resources department account for our falling profits."
请大家给点思路？
错误对比（纵向）。8年前跟现在很不一样，不能一概而论。可能8年前的工资太低了，所以边际利润大，而现在由于有最低工资的限制所以边际利润就少了。也可能8年前刚起步，利润大，现在是稳定期或者波动期，利润就少了。
错误因果。吸引跟原来相似的员工与利润减少没有直接因果关系。先增加的员工，然后利润减少而已。
证据缺失。利润减少不一定是人力资源的问题，可能是行业不景气，也可能是整个经济不好，没有证据说明不是外部原因。
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