61. The recent decline in the value of the dollar was triggered by a prediction of slower economic growth in the coming year. But that prediction would not have adversely affected the dollar had it not been for the government’s huge budget deficit, which must therefore be decreased to prevent future currency declines.
Which of the following, if true, would most seriously weaken the conclusion about how to prevent future currency declines?
(A) The government has made little attempt to reduce the budget deficit.
(B) The budget deficit has not caused a slowdown in economic growth.
(C) The value of the dollar declined several times in the year prior to the recent prediction of slower economic growth.
(D) Before there was a large budget deficit, predictions of slower economic growth frequently caused declines in the dollar’s value.
D
(E) When there is a large budget deficit, other events in addition to predictions of slower economic growth sometimes trigger declines in currency value.
61.
The argument assumes that a particular predict can cause a currency decline only if accompanied by a large budget deficit. Since choice D states that this prediction can cause a currency decline without a large budget deficit, choice D is the best answer.
选什么呢？是B吗，我没OG10
答案是D
論述中認為預測只有伴隨著預算赤字才會造成貨幣貶值
如選項D所說
D) Before there was a large budget deficit, predictions of slower economic growth frequently caused declines in the dollar’s value
在還沒有赤字前 就已經有出現貨幣貶值了
B中說(B) The budget deficit has not caused a slowdown in economic growth.
沒有提到prediction of slower economic growth
赤字有沒有影響到prediction of slower economic growth 是無關的
重點是赤字會不會間接造成貨幣貶值
But that prediction would not have adversely affected
the dollar had it not been for the government’s huge budget deficit这个部分怎么理解?
had it not been...应该是条件状语从句。理解为“如果不是因为政府巨大的财政赤字，这个预言也不会反过来影响到美元(的估值)”
所以逻辑顺序是：财政赤字－> 经济下滑-> 美元下跌
对于题目的结论“阻止美元下跌 必须 减缓财政赤字”，我感觉Ｄ答案更好些
没有财政赤字，也会存在 经济下滑的预测-> 美元下跌（全面描述了三者的关系），所以减缓了财政赤字未必会阻止美元下跌（很好的weaken）
而Ｂ只说 财政赤字->经济下滑（注意不是预测，且经济下滑的预测对美元的影响只能由题干来推出)，虽然也说得过去，但是有Ｄ在的话，Ｂ就不是最佳答案。
所以我觉得答案Ｄ比Ｂ好
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