Meteorologists say that if only they could design an accurate mathematical model of the atmosphere with all its complexities, they could forecast the weather with real precision. But this is an idle boast, immune to any evaluation, for any inadequate weather forecast would obviously be blamed on imperfections in the model.
Which of the following, if true, would cast the most serious doubt on the meteorologists’ boast, aside from the doubt expressed in the passage above?
(A) The amount of energy that the Earth receives from the Sun is monitored closely and is known not to be constant.
(B) Volcanic eruptions, the combustion of fossil fuels, and several other processes that also cannot be quantified with any accuracy are known to have a significant and continuing impact on the constitution of the atmosphere.
(C) As current models of the atmosphere are improved, even small increments in complexity will mean large increases in the number of computers required for the representation of the models.
(D) Frequent and accurate data about the atmosphere collected at a large number of points both on and above the ground are a prerequisite for the construction of a good model of the atmosphere.(B)
(E) With existing models of the atmosphere, large scale weather patterns can be predicted with greater accuracy than can relatively local weather patterns.
气象学家是说要准确预测天气就要有一个很复杂的数学模型,B说得是,VE,CFF, 和其他一些不能够被精确量化的process被知道对大气的形成有重要而且深远的影响。
要反对气象学家个话,为什么是B呢?重要且深远的影响和准确预测是两码事情啊,这怎么能够类比呢?
谢谢!!
气象学家是说要准确预测天气就要有一个很复杂的数学模型,有了这个模型就能预测天气。
而B说,Volcanic eruptions, the combustion of fossil fuels, and several other processes 能够 have a significant and continuing impact on the constitution of the atmosphere,即对大气造成很大影响。但是这些VE,CFF等,并不能够quantified with any accuracy。因此,即使气象学家有很复杂、准确的数学模型,也无法进行准确的预测。
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