第一次写，时间不够，勉力完成，还是想请NN们帮忙鉴定，以便以后提高。叩谢！
AA31:
The following appeared as part of the business plan of an investment and financial consulting firm.
`Studies suggest that an average coffee drinker's consumption of coffee increases with age, from age 10 through age 60. Even after age 60, coffee consumption remains high. The average cola drinker's consumption of cola, however, declines with increasing age. Both of these trends have remained stable for the past 40 years. Gi ven that the number of older adults will significantly increase as the population ages over the next 20 years, it follows that the demand for coffee will increase and the demand for cola will decrease during this period. We should, therefore, consider transferring our investments from Cola Loca to Early Bird Coffee.~
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The author recommends the transferring of the firm's investment from Cola Loca to Early Bird Coffee. This recommend bases on the assumption that the population of older adults will significantly increase, along with the trend that consumption of cola will decline with increasing age while that of coffee will increase with age. Although this argument makes kind of sense, its unwarranted assumptions require close examination. The author commits two flaws in reasoning.
In the first place, the trend which consumption of cola declines as the drinker's age increases and the consumption of coffee does the contrary way is not as sounded as it stands. The author cites the fact that this trend remains stable for the past 40 years to support the assumption the trend will continue. However, there's no further evidence to ensure this assumption. It is possible that factors, such as drinker's consumption pattern or costs of manufacturing these drinks are already changed. Therefore this trend might turnover during the future.
In the second place, the statement that the number of older adults will increase in the next 20 yeas is quite misleading. It doesn't offer any comparable statistics to confirm the proportional advantage on population. For example, the population of young people may also increase to the same extent or even greater over the next 20 years. This expectation would seriously undermine the author's statement.
In the third place, the author's recommendation also relies on an assumption that even if all the preceding assumptions are proved true, it doesn't foreshadow an increasing profit or market value on these two companies. It isn't impossible that these two companies' performance in market would not follow the trend on consumption of cola and coffee. There are many other factors in determining a company's profit. Lack of more specific information of these two companies, it would be unwise to accept the author's recommendation.
To sum up, the author's argument is not convincing. Thus, the recommendation on investment transformation is not worth taking into account To substantiate the argument, the author should provide further evidence to warrant the assumption on consumption trend, population trend and the companies' profitability. These efforts would render the author's advice a more persuasive one.
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