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标题: 请教陈向东书里有关阳光增长销售的一题，无因无果和同因同果的讨论 [打印本页]

作者: buckeyegirl 时间: 2008-4-18 14:39
标题: 请教陈向东书里有关阳光增长销售的一题，无因无果和同因同果的讨论
请教陈向东书里的一题

The sales can be increased by the presence of sunlight within a store has been shown by the experience of the only Savefast department store with a large skylight. The skylight allows sunlight into half of the store, reducing the need for artificial light. The rest of the store uses only artificial light. Since the store opened two years ago, the departments on the sunlit side have had substantially higher sales than the other departmens.

Which of the following, if true, most strengthens the argument?

答案是When the store is open at night, the department in the part of the store under the skylight have sales that are no higher than those of other department.

它还有一个选项是The department in the part of the store under the skylight are the departments that generally have the highest sales in other stores in the Savefast chain.这个为什么不可以呢？

想了半天也不明白，如果说正确答案是无因无果，那干扰选项不也是同因同果吗？为什么不对呢？

垦盼nn指导。

作者: anistonlucky 时间: 2008-4-18 14:59

答案是When the store is open at night, the department in the part of the store under the skylight have sales that are no higher than those of other department.

这个说明high sale is due to the sunlight，

选项说到了晚上，销量就不行了，这样就用一个比较试验的方式，来更说明除了阳光是不行，

你反过来想，如果晚上销量还是那么好的话，那是不是就不是白天阳光的效应使得销量上升了呢？

那样的话，就是其他原因了啊！

作者: buckeyegirl 时间: 2008-4-21 15:27
谢谢anistonlucky，我知道正确选项为什么对，我是想不通为什么干扰选项不对。

作者: buckeyegirl 时间: 2008-4-22 02:27
自己顶。nn能不能帮忙解惑啊。

作者: jj_banana 时间: 2008-4-24 00:48

说说我的看法，菜鸟~~

题目的比较对象是这个SKYLIGHT之下的两个SIDE，这个错误的选项它的比较对象是SKYLIGHT下的DEPARTMENT与STORE的其他DEPARTMENTS，所以是无关选项，应该可以排除。

而正确的选项告诉你没有SUNLIGHT，则两个SIDE是一样的，就是排除了除SUNLIGHT外其他原因导致销售量不同，SUPPORT原文的结论，即SUNLIGHT是销售好的原因。

作者: anistonlucky 时间: 2008-4-24 00:56

MM，

你选的那个干扰选项，at first glance, it appeas to be somewhat convincing,

但是，它只说了一个现象，就是在白天的那些store比其他地方的销量都高，这并不能说明是skylight起到关键的决定因素，

你想啊，如果他们只是巧合怎么办？

如果销量高和skylight只是巧合同时出现怎么办？

so a mere postional correlation does not necessarily prove a causal relationship!

作者: buckeyegirl 时间: 2008-4-28 13:15

非常感谢，jj_banana和anistonlucky。

尤其是anistonlucky妹妹，your point make my mind open completely. 我遇到的挺多题目都是这个情况啊。你真是做了件大好事啊。

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