When people predict that a certain result will not take place unless a certain action is taken, they believe that they have learned that the prediction is correct when the action is taken and the result occurs. On reflection, however, it often becomes clear that the result admits of more than one interpretation.
Which of the following, if true, best supports the claims above?
A. Judging the success of an action requires specifying the goal of the action.
B. Judging which action to take after a prediction is made requires knowing about other actions that have been successful in similar past situations.
C. Learning whether a certain predictive strategy is good requires knowing the result of using that strategy through several trails.
D. Distinguishing a correct prediction and effective action from an incorrect prediction and ineffective action is often impossible.
E. Making a successful prediction requires knowing the facts about the context of that prediction.
选D
首先你要读明白题意：当人们预测一结果不会发生除非某一行动被实行时，人们相信他们的预测是准确的因为实行了某行动后，那个结果发生了。（因->果，所以无因->无果）但其实一结果的产生可能有多种的解释。（一果可能有多因）下面哪一个support啊？
A.goal of action 无关
B.做出预测后采取哪个行动 无关
C.好的预测方法需要多次实验 无关
D.准确分辨真假因果关系是经常做不到的 － support 一结果的产生可能有多种的解释，一果可能有多因
E. 类似C，无关
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