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标题: [求助]哪位好心人帮我看看 [打印本页]
作者: happypoor88    时间: 2007-7-31 12:43
标题: [求助]哪位好心人帮我看看

这题是什么意思，看了半天都没有看懂，能否给些提示呢？

139. Roland: The alarming fact is that 90 percent of the people in this country now report that they know someone who is unemployed.

 

Sharon: But a normal, moderate level of unemployment is 5 percent, with 1 out of 20 workers unemployed. So at any given time if a person knows approximately 50 workers, 1 or more will very likely be unemployed.

 

Sharon's argument relies on the assumption that

(A) normal levels of unemployment are rarely exceeded

(B) unemployment is not normally concentrated in geographically isolated segments of the population

(C) the number of people who each know someone who is unemployed is always higher than 90% of the population

(D) Roland is not consciously distorting the statistics he presents
            B

(E) knowledge that a personal acquaintance is unemployed generates more fear of losing one's job than does knowledge of unemployment statistics
            

 

139.

Sharon’s argument assumes that people are generally similar in how likely they are to have among their acquaintances people who are unemployed. Since heavy concentrations of unemployment in geographically isolated segments of the population would produce great differences in this respect, Sharon’s argument assumes few, if any, such concentrations. Choice B is therefore the best answer.

 

If normal levels of unemployment were exceeded relatively frequently, and if Roland’s figure of 90 percent were an exaggeration, Sharon’s argument would be unaffected, so choices A and D are incorrect. At exceptionally low levels of unemployment, Sharon’s argument suggests that choice C is likely to be false, so C is not assumed. The fear of losing one’s job is not part of Sharon’s argument, so choice E is incorrect.

作者: Justinchen01    时间: 2007-7-31 13:27

这道题目首先排除BCE三个无关项。然后在AD之间作选择。

A说正常失业率一般不会超额，D说Roland没有歪曲事实。

两者取非：

A如果说normal level unemployment can be exceeded, Sharon就没有必要为自己辩护，声称any given time怎么怎么。

D如果说Roland是在故意歪曲事实，那么Sharon的辩解还是有意义的。

所以我觉得应该是A为Sharon的assumption。不知道对不对？

作者: happypoor88    时间: 2007-7-31 16:07

but correct answer is B

作者: tommytang    时间: 2007-7-31 16:38
B是对的。Roland说90%的人都说他们认识某个人失业,Roland对这一事实表示惊讶；而Sharon说通常失业率只有5%,也就是说一个人如果认识50个工人，其中1个或者更多的人有可能是失业的。Sharon的意思就是Roland说的事实和5%的失业率并不冲突。举个例子，有50个工人，其中一个人失业，失业率低于5%,在这50个人中，几乎都认识这个失业的人，所以说知道有人失业的比率是很高的。因为失业的人通常是很多人都认识，而不是只有一个人认识。
作者: happypoor88    时间: 2007-7-31 16:48
哦～～～，经你中文这么一说，我完全明白了，谢谢
作者: Justinchen01    时间: 2007-7-31 18:44

这道题目和OG11上的76题题干一样，但题目问题不同。

我的疑问是：sharon的conclusion是什么？如果对B取非的话，他的conclusion就不成立了吗？

麻烦高人把完整的分析思路说一下，谢谢！





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