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标题: gwd5-37谢谢哈 [打印本页]
作者: jessiebetty    时间: 2006-7-20 11:14
标题: gwd5-37谢谢哈

GWD5

Q37:

Escalating worldwide demand for corn has led to a sharp increase in the market price of corn, and corn prices are likely to remain high.  Corn is extensive used as feed for livestock, and because profit margins are tight in the livestock business, many farmers are expected to leave the business.  With fewer suppliers, meat prices will surely rise.  Nonetheless, observers expect an immediate short-term decrease in meat prices.

 

Which of the following, if true, most helps to justify the observers’ expectation?

 

  1. The increase in corn prices is due more to a decline in the supply of corn than to a growth in demand for it.

  2. Generally, farmers who are squeezed out of the livestock business send their livestock to market much earlier than they otherwise would.

  3. Some people who ate meat regularly in the past are converting to diets that include little or no meat.

  4. As meat prices rise, the number of livestock producers is likely to rise again.

E.Livestock producers who stay in the business will start using feed other than corn more extensively than they did in the past.

WHY b WHY not e

作者: allen0018    时间: 2006-7-20 11:46

无关里面的“细分市场”

Livestock producers who stay in the business

不还是有一些人走掉了吗？

because profit margins are tight in the livestock business, many farmers are expected to leave the business.

他们走了---〉 meat prices will surely rise  

这些都是背景知识，不需要理解，不能推翻

另外，用别的粮食根据头脑空白，也许也是贵了 哪怕贵了1块钱都不能解释为什么 price 下降

作者: gonghao    时间: 2006-7-20 12:48

其实这个题：

玉米的需求增加，价格高，且会维持。玉米一般给牲口吃，但是呢牲口的生意的利润低，所以N多养牲口的人不干了。由于养牲口人不干的多了，牲口少了，肉就少了，肉的价格就高了。而观察家觉的短期内，肉的价格是会降低的。

这不是废话吗？大批的农民的不养牲口了，把牲口大量的拿到市场上去卖，自然短期内市场上牲口多，肉多，价格就低了。

找选项B。没啥问题。

E：用其它东西养牲口，这样的话，牲口不会卖了，怎么能造成短期内肉价低呢？E反而weaken了结论。

作者: 顾风    时间: 2006-7-20 14:05

B说明了一个问题，就是因为farmer业务转型，要抛出现有的 livestock。

E并不能说明meat rice会降价，因为农民使用别的东西做食物，这个E只有这个假设，如果别的东西不贵，肉类不会涨价。但并不说明会降价。

作者: gonghao    时间: 2006-7-20 14:24
以下是引用顾风在2006-7-20 14:05:00的发言：

B说明了一个问题，就是因为farmer业务转型，要抛出现有的 livestock。

E并不能说明meat rice会降价，因为农民使用别的东西做食物，这个E只有这个假设，如果别的东西不贵，肉类不会涨价。但并不说明会降价。

补充：如果其它用来养牲口的饲料贵的话，肉的价格还会涨呢，成本高了。这样更不可能短期内下降，等着肉价飞涨吧
作者: yunhan123    时间: 2006-7-20 21:08
B选项真是狡猾大大的,但无奈同意是正确选项;
B意思有点引伸:大批农民不养家畜了,说明肉市场供大于求,于是早点去卖,否则下午更不值钱, 暗指肉价下落.
感觉加上了点常识来解题.我的理解对吗?




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