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标题: [求助]费费135－70 [打印本页]

作者: ggyum 时间: 2006-5-2 01:51
标题: [求助]费费135－70

70. A low-pressure weather system is approaching Plainville; rainfall results from about 70 percent of such systems in the Plainville area. Moreover, the current season, spring, is the time of year in which thundershowers, which sometimes result from low-pressure systems, are most likely to occur in Plainville.

Knowing which one of the following, in addition to the information above, would be most useful for determine the probability that Plainville will have a thundershower soon?

A. the percentage of thundershowers in Plainville that occur in the spring

B. the percentage of spring rainfalls in Plainville that are thundershowers

C. the percentage of thundershowers in Plainville that result from low-pressure systems

D. whether low-pressure systems in other areas are associated with rainfall

E. whether Plainville has more or fewer thundershowers each spring than do near by towns

参考答案：C

思路：文中给出两个条件，1是低压天气将到达，而70%的低压天气导致降雨，2是现在正是1年中雷阵雨最多的季节且雷阵雨有时也是由于低压天气导致；答案（C）给出了低压天气导致雷阵雨的比率，用70%乘以这个比率，就可以得到下雷阵雨的概率了。

A、B没能和低压天气联系起来，D、E为无关选项

“用70%乘以这个比率，就可以得到下雷阵雨的概率了”是不是有那么一DD问题呢？用任何的比率×70％肯定少于70％，但是很明显题目中的两个条件是并列的，两个条件是比只有一个条件进一步增加了thundershower的可能性，那又怎么可能是比率相乘呢？？？

thundershower的概率估计应该是1－[（1－70％）×（1－？％）]才对～～～～

作者: yaoyao99 时间: 2006-5-2 08:25
Because thundershower is part of rainfall, it makes sense for the probability of thundershower to be lower than the probability of rain.

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