下周就要考试了。每天还要工作，没有太多时间准备作文，请诸位同学多指正，并提些建议。谢谢！
时间：32分钟
12. (黄金80题)
The following appeared as part of a promotional campaign to sell advertising space in the Daily Gazette to grocery stores in the Marston area.
“Advertising the reduced price of selected grocery items in the Daily Gazette will help you increase your sales. Consider the results of a study conducted last month. Thirty sale items from a store in downtown Marston were advertised in the Gazette for four days. Each time one or more of the 30 items was purchased, clerks asked whether the shopper had read the ad. Two-thirds of the 200 shoppers asked answered in the affirmative. Furthermore, more than half the customers who answered in the affirmative spent over $100 at the store.”
12. 在把Gazette日报的广告版向Marston地区的蔬菜商销售的计划：
在Gazette日报宣传特价菜会帮助你提高销售额。考虑上月的一个研究的结果。Marston中心区的一个商店的30种特价菜在Gazette做了4天广告。每当有特价菜被卖出，职员就问顾客是否读过广告。200顾客中的2/3回答是肯定的。而且，持肯定回答的顾客中有超过一半的人在店里的消费超过100美元。ristine dateTime=2006-04-04T07:00>
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In this argument, the author is trying to establish that advertising the reduced price of selected grocery items in Daily Gazette will help to in crease sales. The author points out that when one or more of the 30 items was purchased, two-thirds of the 200 shoppers answered in the affirmatiristine dateTime=2006-04-04T06:43>ove. In addition, the author also points out that more than half the customer who answered in the affirmatiristine dateTime=2006-04-04T06:43>ove spent over $100 at the store. Furthermore, the author assumes that this circumstance contribute to the advertisristine dateTime=2006-04-04T06:43>ement in the Daily Gazette. After a closely examining, we can find that none of ristine dateTime=2006-04-04T06:44>these ristine dateTime=2006-04-04T06:44>this evideristine dateTime=2006-04-04T06:43>nceristine dateTime=2006-04-04T06:44>s provides sufficient support to the conclusion, and the author omits some inmportant infromation information that must be addressed to substanciate substantiate the conclusion. This argument is problematic in the following reasons.
At the beginning, the author rests the conclusion the the poll that of 200 shoppers. However, the validity of the survey itself is unwarranted. The survery is too vague to be informative.The author did not show how, when and where the survey was conducted, neither what is the sample size, and how the sample size was selected. The sample size of 200 shoppers may not representative of all shoppers. Thereforre, without further evidence it is biased to draw the conclusion for the survey.
In the second place, it is necessary to point out another flaw that significantly undermines this arugument that the arguement reasons that advertising the reduced price of selected grocery items in the Daily Gazette will increase sales. The only evidence to support the conclusion is that more than half the customers who answered in the affirmative spent over $100 at the store. However, this evidence is insufufficient to establish the causal connection. Perhaps some other reasons lead to increase the spend consumption of shoppers, for example those days may near the Christmas or some other holledaysholidays. If the author cannot rull out other possibilities that can cause the increase of sales, the conclusion is prolematic.
The last but the least, the argument also commits a 'After this, Becasuse of these, Therefore' fallacy. The author conclusdes that the sales increased because of the advertisement just because the sales increased after the advertisement. The causal claim based on the correlation is premature.
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