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标题: [揽瓜阁逻辑小分队] day104 [打印本页]

作者: Ysandre 时间: 2023-1-1 13:26
标题: [揽瓜阁逻辑小分队] day104

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作者: Serenatt 时间: 2023-1-1 13:45
看一下！

作者: Serenatt 时间: 2023-1-1 13:55
Day 104
1.       鱼和水污染
一个州长提名 A 竞选州长，而之前有前任州长提名的人选在大选中赢了。所以得出结论这次这个获得州长提名的人赢的可能性也很大。Flaw

P：之前提名的人在大选中赢了，当上了州长
C：所以这次提名的人很可能也会赢
Q：逻辑漏洞
方向：错误地认为之前的事儿还能适用于现在的情况
【答案：认为过去发生过的现象现在也能发生】

2.       农民种柑橘
农民在果园里种柑橘，柑橘晚上的时候经常掉，导致产量减少，一个政府就想要开发果园周围的 wetland 来种柑橘，但是农民纷纷反对，问原因。

方向：原因要说到这个wetland的重要性
【答案：wetland 可以避免果园晚上的温度降得过低】

3.       犯罪率
The violent crime rate (number of violent crimes per 1,000 residents) in Meadowbrook is 60 percent higher now than it was four years ago. The corresponding increase for Parkdale is only 10 percent. These figures support the conclusion that residents of Meadowbrook are more likely to become victims of violent crime than are residents of Parkdale.
The argument above is flawed because it fails to take into account
A.       Changes in the population density of both Meadowbrook and Parkdale over the past four years.【人口数量变化无关】
B.       How the rate of population growth in Meadowbrook over the past four years compares to the corresponding rate for Parkdale【人口数量变化也无关】
C.       The ratio of violent to nonviolent crimes committed during the past four years in Meadowbrook and Parkdale【没犯罪的无关】
D.       The violent crime rates in Meadowbrook and Parkdale four years ago【bingo，没有考虑之前的情况】
E.       How Meadowbrooks’ expenditures for crime prevention over the past four years compare to Parkdale’s expenditures.【跟expenditure无关】

P：M地现在的犯罪率比4年前的高60%
P：P地的增长只有10%
C：所以M地的人比P的的人更爱犯罪
Q：flaw
方向：没有考虑到之前犯罪基数的问题
答案：D

作者: Ak777 时间: 2023-1-1 14:03
同意！

作者: Ak777 时间: 2023-1-1 14:13
Day 104
1.       鱼和水污染
一个州长提名 A 竞选州长，而之前有前任州长提名的人选在大选中赢了。所以得出结论这次这个获得州长提名的人赢的可能性也很大。Flaw
-找出一些，获前任州长提名与最终大选胜利无关的因素

2.       农民种柑橘
农民在果园里种柑橘，柑橘晚上的时候经常掉，导致产量减少，一个政府就想要开发果园周围的 wetland 来种柑橘，但是农民纷纷反对，问原因。
-开发wetland丢了西瓜捡芝麻。wetland有一些动物/植物/irrigation对果园的柑橘生长非常重要/wetland中有些经济作物远超柑橘

3.       犯罪率
The violent crime rate (number of violent crimes per 1,000 residents) in Meadowbrook is 60 percent higher now than it was four years ago. The corresponding increase for Parkdale is only 10 percent. These figures support the conclusion that residents of Meadowbrook are more likely to become victims of violent crime than are residents of Parkdale.
The argument above is flawed because it fails to take into account
A.       Changes in the population density of both Meadowbrook and Parkdale over the past four years.
B.       How the rate of population growth in Meadowbrook over the past four years compares to the corresponding rate for Parkdale
C.       The ratio of violent to nonviolent crimes committed during the past four years in Meadowbrook and Parkdale
D.       The violent crime rates in Meadowbrook and Parkdale four years ago
E.       How Meadowbrooks’ expenditures for crime prevention over the past four years compare to Parkdale’s expenditures.

-D 题干是犯罪率的增长率，而不是犯罪率。涨的多不等于现在就多，需要知道四年前是多少，

作者: PennyWen95 时间: 2023-1-1 17:47
看一下！

作者: PennyWen95 时间: 2023-1-1 18:01
[揽瓜阁逻辑小分队] day104
Day 104
1.       鱼和水污染
一个州长提名 A 竞选州长，而之前有前任州长提名的人选在大选中赢了。所以得出结论这次这个获得州长提名的人赢的可能性也很大。Flaw

Flaw: 是因为它因而不是州长提名。之前的参选人本身的能力和优势就很强，就算没有州长提名也可以大选成功。
认为过去发生过的现象现在也能发生

2.       农民种柑橘
农民在果园里种柑橘，柑橘晚上的时候经常掉，导致产量减少，一个政府就想要开发果园周围的 wetland 来种柑橘，但是农民纷纷反对，问原因。
Wetland有其他用途，如果用来种柑橘，可能会导致负面影响。
wetland 可以避免果园晚上的温度降得过低

3.       犯罪率
The violent crime rate (number of violent crimes per 1,000 residents) in Meadowbrook is 60 percent higher now than it was four years ago. The corresponding increase for Parkdale is only 10 percent. These figures support the conclusion that residents of Meadowbrook are more likely to become victims of violent crime than are residents of Parkdale.
The argument above is flawed because it fails to take into account
A.       Changes in the population density of both Meadowbrook and Parkdale over the past four years.
B.       How the rate of population growth in Meadowbrook over the past four years compares to the corresponding rate for Parkdale
C.       The ratio of violent to nonviolent crimes committed during the past four years in Meadowbrook and Parkdale
D.       The violent crime rates in Meadowbrook and Parkdale four years ago
E.       How Meadowbrooks’ expenditures for crime prevention over the past four years compare to Parkdale’s expenditures.

作者: PBkk 时间: 2023-1-1 19:10
看一下！

作者: PBkk 时间: 2023-1-1 19:18
Day 104
1.       鱼和水污染
一个州长提名 A 竞选州长，而之前有前任州长提名的人选在大选中赢了。所以得出结论这次这个获得州长提名的人赢的可能性也很大。Flaw相关因果
前任州长提名的人中，并不代表这次就会中。用前次结论比拟这次，而关系并不统一。
Weaken:
原理：他因：赢的原理和州长提名没关系；
因果关系：州长提名大多数不会赢

2.       农民种柑橘
农民在果园里种柑橘，柑橘晚上的时候经常掉，导致产量减少，一个政府就想要开发果园周围的 wetland 来种柑橘，但是农民纷纷反对，问原因。

C: 农民纷纷反对
Weaken:
原理：
否定性副作用：副作用导致现有的柑橘产量进一步降低
可操作性：wetland因为某种元素导致更不能种柑橘

3.       犯罪率
The violent crime rate (number of violent crimes per 1,000 residents) in Meadowbrook is 60 percent higher now than it was four years ago. The corresponding increase for Parkdale is only 10 percent. These figures support the conclusion that residents of Meadowbrook are more likely to become victims of violent crime than are residents of Parkdale.
The argument above is flawed because it fails to take into account
A.       Changes in the population density of both Meadowbrook and Parkdale over the past four years.
B.       How the rate of population growth in Meadowbrook over the past four years compares to the corresponding rate for Parkdale
C.       The ratio of violent to nonviolent crimes committed during the past four years in Meadowbrook and Parkdale
D.       The violent crime rates in Meadowbrook and Parkdale four years ago
E.       How Meadowbrooks’ expenditures for crime prevention over the past four years compare to Parkdale’s expenditures.

P: violent crime rate： M增长60%，P增长10%
C: M的居民更容易受到伤害

Weaken：
- 原理：增长量和绝对量取决于基数：如果基数低，则不一定新的绝对数大；有可能victims of M 一直都是同一拨人

作者: xxxx44 时间: 2023-1-1 20:18
DAY 104
1.
P: 某州长提名A竞选州长
C: 此前有前任州长提名的人选胜出，所以这次赢得几率很大
flaw：false analogy，此前提名的人选竞争力和A相比如何？前任州长的支持度和现任州长的支持度相比如何？

2.
P：某果园的柑橘晚上落果导致产量减少
C: 果农反对政府关于开发周围湿地种植柑橘的提议
explanation：周围的土壤并不适合种植柑橘

3.
P: M地的犯罪率比四年前上升60%， P地只有10%，
C: M地居民的人身安全受到威胁更大
flaw： A 两地人口基数变化 B 两地四年间人口增长率 C 两地四年内暴力犯罪和非暴力犯罪比例 D 四年前两地犯罪率 E 两地在预防犯罪支出的比较

作者: Shell_liang 时间: 2023-1-1 21:48
看一下！

作者: 小连oooo 时间: 2023-1-1 21:56
看一下！

作者: Cocoboyxx 时间: 2023-1-1 21:56
我看

作者: Shell_liang 时间: 2023-1-1 22:14
Day 104
1. 鱼和水污染
一个州长提名 A 竞选州长，而之前有前任州长提名的人选在大选中赢了。所以得出结论这次这个获得州长提名的人赢的可能性也很大。Flaw

之前赢得不代表之后赢，候选人情况不一样呢

2. 农民种柑橘
农民在果园里种柑橘，柑橘晚上的时候经常掉，导致产量减少，一个政府就想要开发果园周围的 wetland 来种柑橘，但是农民纷纷反对，问原因。

农民反对政府开发wetland，开发wetland有什么副作用？比如影响柑橘产量啥的？

3. 犯罪率
The violent crime rate (number of violent crimes per 1,000 residents) in Meadowbrook is 60 percent higher now than it was four years ago. The corresponding increase for Parkdale is only 10 percent. These figures support the conclusion that residents of Meadowbrook are more likely to become victims of violent crime than are residents of Parkdale.
The argument above is flawed because it fails to take into account
A. Changes in the population density of both Meadowbrook and Parkdale over the past four years.
B. How the rate of population growth in Meadowbrook over the past four years compares to the corresponding rate for Parkdale
C. The ratio of violent to nonviolent crimes committed during the past four years in Meadowbrook and Parkdale
D. The violent crime rates in Meadowbrook and Parkdale four years ago
E. How Meadowbrooks’ expenditures for crime prevention over the past four years compare to Parkdale’s expenditures.

M地犯罪率比之四年前高60%
P地犯罪率比之前高10%
=>M更危险

错误在哪？之前的基数不知道，选D

作者: Severus. 时间: 2023-1-1 22:23
看一下！

作者: 林limbo 时间: 2023-1-1 22:43
看一下！

作者: 林limbo 时间: 2023-1-1 22:45
DAY 104

1、解释题，找出A和之前提名人的不同，比如是否能够当选并不只受是否被提名这个因素影响（引入他因进行解释）
2、找wetland对于果园更重要的选项——如wetland的存在能够避免果园掉更多的果
3、D/需要知道这两个国家四年前的犯罪率分别是多少

作者: Severus. 时间: 2023-1-1 23:03
1.       鱼和水污染
一个州长提名 A 竞选州长，而之前有前任州长提名的人选在大选中赢了。所以得出结论这次这个获得州长提名的人赢的可能性也很大。Flaw
前任州长提名的人是本身就获得了很高支持率的人
错误类比，认为去年发生的事情现在也能发生
2.       农民种柑橘
农民在果园里种柑橘，柑橘晚上的时候经常掉，导致产量减少，一个政府就想要开发果园周围的 wetland 来种柑橘，但是农民纷纷反对，问原因。
wetland掉的柑橘尤其多
wetland可以避免果园晚上的温度降的过低
3.       犯罪率
The violent crime rate (number of violent crimes per 1,000 residents) in Meadowbrook is 60 percent higher now than it was four years ago. The corresponding increase for Parkdale is only 10 percent. These figures support the conclusion that residents of Meadowbrook are more likely to become victims of violent crime than are residents of Parkdale. D
The argument above is flawed because it fails to take into account
A.       Changes in the population density of both Meadowbrook and Parkdale over the past four years.
B.       How the rate of population growth in Meadowbrook over the past four years compares to the corresponding rate for Parkdale
C.       The ratio of violent to nonviolent crimes committed during the past four years in Meadowbrook and Parkdale
D.       The violent crime rates in Meadowbrook and Parkdale four years ago
E.       How Meadowbrooks’ expenditures for crime prevention over the past four years compare to Parkdale’s expenditures.

作者: petittomato 时间: 2023-1-2 01:36
看一下！

作者: abc1654 时间: 2023-1-2 10:30
标记它！

作者: Carolineccc 时间: 2023-1-2 22:49
Mark一下！

作者: Carolineccc 时间: 2023-1-2 23:03
Day 104
1.P: 一个竞选人获得州长提名了。上一任提名成为州长了
  C：这个获得提名的人赢得可能性很大
  Weaken: 获得提名的不止一人
2.P：柑橘园里晚上经常掉柑橘，产量减少，一个政府想要开发橘园旁的沼泽地来种柑橘
  C：农民纷纷反对
  Reason: 沼泽地不适合种柑橘/ 沼泽地对现在的橘园有用
3.P: M的犯罪率比四年前高了60%，而P的犯罪率只增长了10%
  C：M的居民比P的更容易成为罪犯
  D

作者: wlive2022 时间: 2023-1-3 00:07
Day 104
1.       鱼和水污染
一个州长提名 A 竞选州长，而之前有前任州长提名的人选在大选中赢了。所以得出结论这次这个获得州长提名的人赢的可能性也很大。Flawflaw 就是两者不可类比

2.       农民种柑橘
农民在果园里种柑橘，柑橘晚上的时候经常掉，导致产量减少，一个政府就想要开发果园周围的 wetland 来种柑橘，但是农民纷纷反对，问原因。
比较简单

3.       犯罪率
The violent crime rate (number of violent crimes per 1,000 residents) in Meadowbrook is 60 percent higher now than it was four years ago. The corresponding increase for Parkdale is only 10 percent. These figures support the conclusion that residents of Meadowbrook are more likely to become victims of violent crime than are residents of Parkdale.
The argument above is flawed because it fails to take into account
A.       Changes in the population density of both Meadowbrook and Parkdale over the past four years.
B.       How the rate of population growth in Meadowbrook over the past four years compares to the corresponding rate for Parkdale
C.       The ratio of violent to nonviolent crimes committed during the past four years in Meadowbrook and Parkdale
D.       The violent crime rates in Meadowbrook and Parkdale four years ago
E.       How Meadowbrooks’ expenditures for crime prevention over the past four years compare to Parkdale’s expenditures.

典型的讨论变化时需要比较基数才知道变化大小

作者: erichh317 时间: 2023-1-3 06:19
看一下！

作者: slowdiving 时间: 2023-1-3 16:34
感谢分享！

作者: slowdiving 时间: 2023-1-3 16:43
Day104
1.答案猜测：flaw
之前的人赢除了因为提名，还有别的因素，比如自身实力过硬 ✅
答案补充：
这里答案给的是一种genera的错误定义，认为all the things are equal
2.答案猜测：为什么农民反对把wetland也开发成柑橘低？
a.经济原因：wetland有别的更高收入的作物或者产业/wetland不适合中柑橘/wetland开发的成本很高，会影响村民自身的经济收入
b.生态原因：wetland对当地的气候和生产有很大的好处，开发成果园后会破坏生态 ✅
补充：wetland 可以避免果园晚上的温度降得过快/就是说还是得回到橘子上来，说明对橘子的好处
3.flaw：只比较增长率，没有考虑到原来的基础
D.四年前的犯罪率 ✅

作者: 断了的弦 时间: 2023-1-4 00:09
kkk

作者: 断了的弦 时间: 2023-1-4 00:14
Day 104
1.       鱼和水污染
一个州长提名 A 竞选州长，而之前有前任州长提名的人选在大选中赢了。所以得出结论这次这个获得州长提名的人赢的可能性也很大。Flaw
这是类比关系，可能有他因削弱，例如提名州长人有不良声誉

2.       农民种柑橘
农民在果园里种柑橘，柑橘晚上的时候经常掉，导致产量减少，一个政府就想要开发果园周围的 wetland 来种柑橘，但是农民纷纷反对，问原因。
wetland 更易减产

3.       犯罪率
The violent crime rate (number of violent crimes per 1,000 residents) in Meadowbrook is 60 percent higher now than it was four years ago. The corresponding increase for Parkdale is only 10 percent. These figures support the conclusion that residents of Meadowbrook are more likely to become victims of violent crime than are residents of Parkdale.
The argument above is flawed because it fails to take into account
A.       Changes in the population density of both Meadowbrook and Parkdale over the past four years.
B.       How the rate of population growth in Meadowbrook over the past four years compares to the corresponding rate for Parkdale
C.       The ratio of violent to nonviolent crimes committed during the past four years in Meadowbrook and Parkdale
D.       The violent crime rates in Meadowbrook and Parkdale four years ago
E.       How Meadowbrooks’ expenditures for crime prevention over the past four years compare to Parkdale’s expenditures.
d

作者: 佛系A子在線讀書 时间: 2023-1-4 13:05
看一下！

作者: luzitao630 时间: 2023-1-4 13:39
NB

作者: luzitao630 时间: 2023-1-4 14:09
一个州长提名 A 竞选州长, 而之前有前任州长提名的人选在大选中赢了. 所以得出结论这次这个获得州长提名的人赢的可能性也很大。
问削弱 (类比推理)?
P: 因为前任州长提名了然后大选中赢了. C: 所以这次提名A, A也可以竞选上州长
A和前任州长有没有什么不同点, 比如亲和力是否不一样, 口才有没有前任的好, 是否对百姓更差等等 (只要提到和竞选有关的不同点其实就没什么问题了, 而且对A不利)
The violent crime rate (number of violent crimes per 1,000 residents) in Meadowbrook is 60 percent higher now than it was four years ago. The corresponding increase for Parkdale is only 10 percent. These figures support the conclusion that residents of Meadowbrook are more likely to become victims of violent crime than are residents of Parkdale.
P: M地区的犯罪率的增长率相较于4年前上涨了60%; 同时, P地区相应的增长率才10%
C: 这表明, M地的人更容易成为犯罪事件的受害者
模式: 条件论证
漏洞: 没有提到两地基数 (4年前犯罪率是什么个情况) 是什么, 自然也就不能知道实际情况
举例: A地区的犯罪率是16%, 但是4年前是10%; B地区的犯罪率是99%, 但是去年是90%
所以仅仅通过增长率并不能说明哪个地区的人更容易成为受害者
The argument above is flawed because it fails to take into account
A. Changes in the population density of both Meadowbrook and Parkdale over the past four years.
B. How the rate of population growth in Meadowbrook over the past four years compares to the corresponding rate for Parkdale
C. The ratio of violent to nonviolent crimes committed during the past four years in Meadowbrook and Parkdale
D. The violent crime rates in Meadowbrook and Parkdale four years ago-BINGO, 没有提到基数讲的是, ABC有关但是不优
E. How Meadowbrooks’ expenditures for crime prevention over the past four years compare to Parkdale’s expenditures.-无关
农民的橘子产量一到晚上就下降, 政府打算利用旁边的wetland湿地去开发新果园, 但是遭到了农民的反对, 为什么 (手段目的)?
手段: 开采附近的wetland
目的: 改善晚上产量下降的现状
问削弱
方向: 湿地对橘子产量的重要性-可能开采了情况更糟糕

作者: 佛系A子在線讀書 时间: 2023-1-5 13:10
1.某州長提名的人過去有選上，所以他這次提名的人大概也會選上
>>過去不可預測未來

2.柑橘晚上會掉所以政府想要增產，被農民反對
>>土壤營養有限
>>wetland對果園有負面影響

3.D

作者: 花花嘛嘛 时间: 2023-1-7 07:30
Mark一下！

作者: 花花嘛嘛 时间: 2023-1-7 07:45
Day 104
1.       鱼和水污染
一个州长提名 A 竞选州长，而之前有前任州长提名的人选在大选中赢了。所以得出结论这次这个获得州长提名的人赢的可能性也很大。Flaw
P：前任州长提名的人赢得大选
C：这次州长提名的人赢得可能性大。
Flaw: 忽视了被提名的人的影响性和关键性
过分夸大州长提名的决定性

2.       农民种柑橘
农民在果园里种柑橘，柑橘晚上的时候经常掉，导致产量减少，一个政府就想要开发果园周围的 wetland 来种柑橘，但是农民纷纷反对，问原因。
解释原因：开发果园周围的wetland中柑橘，柑橘种得多掉得也多，损失更大

3.       犯罪率
The violent crime rate (number of violent crimes per 1,000 residents) in Meadowbrook is 60 percent higher now than it was four years ago. The corresponding increase for Parkdale is only 10 percent. These figures support the conclusion that residents of Meadowbrook are more likely to become victims of violent crime than are residents of Parkdale.
The argument above is flawed because it fails to take into account
A.       Changes in the population density of both Meadowbrook and Parkdale over the past four years.
B.       How the rate of population growth in Meadowbrook over the past four years compares to the corresponding rate for Parkdale
C.       The ratio of violent to nonviolent crimes committed during the past four years in Meadowbrook and Parkdale
D.       The violent crime rates in Meadowbrook and Parkdale four years ago
E.       How Meadowbrooks’ expenditures for crime prevention over the past four years compare to Parkdale’s expenditures.

作者: 小张的诗 时间: 2023-1-21 15:20
1.       鱼和水污染
一个州长提名 A 竞选州长，而之前有前任州长提名的人选在大选中赢了。所以得出结论这次这个获得州长提名的人赢的可能性也很大。FlawP：一个州长提名 A 竞选州长，而之前有前任州长提名的人选在大选中赢了。
C：这次这个获得州长提名的人赢的可能性也很大。
flaw：不能只考虑提名这一个因素，上一个可能是偶然
2.       农民种柑橘
农民在果园里种柑橘，柑橘晚上的时候经常掉，导致产量减少，一个政府就想要开发果园周围的 wetland 来种柑橘，但是农民纷纷反对，问原因。
P：柑橘晚上的时候经常掉，导致产量减少，一个政府就想要开发果园周围的 wetland 来种柑橘
C：农民纷纷反对
在wetland上种植，减少的产量多余夜晚掉落的
3.       犯罪率
The violent crime rate (number of violent crimes per 1,000 residents) in Meadowbrook is 60 percent higher now than it was four years ago. The corresponding increase for Parkdale is only 10 percent. These figures support the conclusion that residents of Meadowbrook are more likely to become victims of violent crime than are residents of Parkdale.
P：M犯罪率多余P犯罪率
C：M地方的人比P的地方更容易犯罪
Flaw：
The argument above is flawed because it fails to take into account
A.       Changes in the population density of both Meadowbrook and Parkdale over the past four years.
B.       How the rate of population growth in Meadowbrook over the past four years compares to the corresponding rate for Parkdale
C.       The ratio of violent to nonviolent crimes committed during the past four years in Meadowbrook and Parkdale
D.       The violent crime rates in Meadowbrook and Parkdale four years ago
E.       How Meadowbrooks’ expenditures for crime prevention over the past four years compare to Parkdale’s expenditures.

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