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标题: [揽瓜阁逻辑小分队] day40 [打印本页]

作者: Ysandre 时间: 2022-10-29 01:37
标题: [揽瓜阁逻辑小分队] day40

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作者: 林limbo 时间: 2022-10-29 01:42
看一下！

作者: 林limbo 时间: 2022-10-29 01:51
1\住在偏远地方的人不会因为修桥而受益
2\没限速地区的白鲸并没有同步上升
3\PLAN：引入虾作为食物 GOAL：缓解三文鱼业收入下滑的格局 GAP：三文鱼变大变多后是否会影响单价/虾是否能够真的被三文鱼吃掉
D 虾不是三文鱼的主要食物来源且虾因为自身活不下去所以无法满足三文鱼的食物需求

作者: 小张的诗 时间: 2022-10-29 08:19
同意！

作者: 小张的诗 时间: 2022-10-29 08:31
1、住在偏远地区永远都不过桥
2、没有速度限制的地方数量没有提高
3、P：三文鱼是一个地方的经济来源
   P：三文鱼由于没有食物数量减少，经济下滑
   C：引入虾米来缓解这个情况
   削弱：虾不是三文鱼的主要食物来源且虾很难生存

作者: Serenatt 时间: 2022-10-29 08:40
thx

作者: Shell_liang 时间: 2022-10-29 09:37
看一下！

作者: Ak777 时间: 2022-10-29 10:02
同意！

作者: Ak777 时间: 2022-10-29 10:12
1. 修桥
一个地方要修桥。修桥的钱要从民众募集。但是这个桥只有一部分居民经常使用，另一部分住在偏远地方的人用不上。所以向所有人募集钱是不公平的。Assumption
-排除掉任何或使偏远地区居民同等收益的因素：偏远地区的人不用桥；桥上不会经常跑货车，which为偏远地区送物资

2. 珍稀白鲸
有一种珍稀白鲸死亡率很高而且原因是因为colison（忘了怎么拼了就是撞击那个单词）with ships 所以就调低了在某些白鲸密集区域船只航行速度的limit 果然白鲸数量上升了说明政策有效问还需要知道什么条件我选的是在没限速的区域白鲸的数量
-速度limit感觉不等于实际行驶速度，可能还需要知道航船实际速度
-他因，是否因为限速导致很多船都不从这里经过了
总之，“没限速区域白鲸数量”IMO是不需要知道的条件

3. 三文鱼和小虾米
The economy around Lake Paqua depends on fishing of the lake's landlocked salmon population. In recent years, scarcity of food for salmon there has caused a decline in both the number and the size of the adult salmon in the lake. As a result, the region's revenues from salmon fishing have declined significantly. To remedy this situation, officials plan to introduce shrimp, which can serve as a food source for adult salmon, into Lake Paqua.
Which of the following, if true, most seriously calls into question the plan's chances for success?
(A) Salmon is not a popular food among residents of the Lake Paqua region.
(B) Tourists coming to fish for sport generate more income for residents of the Lake Paqua region than does commercial fishing.
(C) The shrimp to be introduced into Lake Paqua are of a variety that is too small to be harvested for human consumption.
(D) The primary food for both shrimp and juvenile salmon is plankton, which is not abundant in Lake Paqua.
(E) Fishing regulations prohibit people from keeping any salmon they have caught in Lake Paqua that are smaller than a certain minimum size.

D

作者: Shell_liang 时间: 2022-10-29 10:29
1. 修桥
一个地方要修桥。修桥的钱要从民众募集。但是这个桥只有一部分居民经常使用，另一部分住在偏远地方的人用不上。所以向所有人募集钱是不公平的。Assumption

P：桥只有一部分居民使用
C：向所有人募集钱不公平
假设：使用这个桥就应该付费，用的人多的付费多
2. 珍稀白鲸
有一种珍稀白鲸死亡率很高而且原因是因为colison（忘了怎么拼了就是撞击那个单词）with ships 所以就调低了在某些白鲸密集区域船只航行速度的limit 果然白鲸数量上升了说明政策有效问还需要知道什么条件我选的是在没限速的区域白鲸的数量

船航行速度下降=》白鲸数量上升=》政策有效
还有什么条件？没限速的地区白鲸数量少

3.
食物减少=》三文鱼减少=》收入减少
引入虾米=》三文鱼有食物=》plan成功
plan成功的可能性不行-- CQ1:方案可行性 CQ2:方案可操作性 CQ3:方案的否定性副作用
三文鱼一定会吃虾米吗？有没有别的竞争？虾米投多了会不会有其他问题？虾米本身有没有问题？
选D

作者: Carolineccc 时间: 2022-10-29 10:55
Mark一下！

作者: Carolineccc 时间: 2022-10-29 11:17
Day 40:
1.P：一个地方要修桥，修桥的钱要从民众募集。这个桥只有一部分居民经常使用，另一部分住的偏的人几乎用不上
  C：向所有人募集钱是不公平的
  Assumption: 修桥的钱——居民使用度
— 住的偏的人完全不从这座桥走
— 按照走桥的频率来收费是公平的
2.P1：调低某些白鲸密集区船的最高航行速度，白鲸数量上升
C：白鲸死亡率高和船的撞击有关
  P2：- 白鲸非密集区船的航行速度改变导致的白鲸数量的变化
3.Plan：原本湖里三文鱼的食物数量和大小下降导致三文鱼数量下降。政府现在计划引入虾，也可以作为三文鱼的食物来源
  Calls into question (weaken):
- 虾的移动速度很快三文鱼很难捉到
- 虾生活在湖底，三文鱼不易捕捉
- 虾在这片湖中存活率很低

作者: miawang00088 时间: 2022-10-29 11:31
在

作者: yumna 时间: 2022-10-29 12:33
看一下！

作者: yumna 时间: 2022-10-29 12:52
1. 修桥
一个地方要修桥。修桥的钱要从民众募集。但是这个桥只有一部分居民经常使用，另一部分住在偏远地方的人用不上。所以向所有人募集钱是不公平的。Assumption

F：修桥要全部民众出钱。
P：这个桥只有一部分居民经常使用，另一部分住在偏远地方的人用不上。
C：向所有人募集钱是不公平的

Assumption: 按使用桥的频率来收费。

2. 珍稀白鲸
有一种珍稀白鲸死亡率很高而且原因是因为collision（忘了怎么拼了就是撞击那个单词）with ships 所以就调低了在某些白鲸密集区域船只航行速度的limit 果然白鲸数量上升了说明政策有效问还需要知道什么条件。

F：珍稀白鲸会因为撞船而死。调低船只航行速度，白鲸数量上升。
C：调低航行速度能够减少白鲸撞船死的概率
类型：因果相关性推理

条件：船只速度快慢和致死率有关，开得慢致死率低，开得快致死率高。

3. 三文鱼和小虾米
The economy around Lake Paqua depends on fishing of the lake's landlocked salmon population. In recent years, scarcity of food for salmon there has caused a decline in both the number and the size of the adult salmon in the lake. As a result, the region's revenues from salmon fishing have declined significantly. To remedy this situation, officials plan to introduce shrimp, which can serve as a food source for adult salmon, into Lake Paqua.
Which of the following, if true, most seriously calls into question the plan's chances for success?
(A) Salmon is not a popular food among residents of the Lake Paqua region.
(B) Tourists coming to fish for sport generate more income for residents of the Lake Paqua region than does commercial fishing.
(C) The shrimp to be introduced into Lake Paqua are of a variety that is too small to be harvested for human consumption.
(D) The primary food for both shrimp and juvenile salmon is plankton, which is not abundant in Lake Paqua.
(E) Fishing regulations prohibit people from keeping any salmon they have caught in Lake Paqua that are smaller than a certain minimum size.

F：三文鱼食物减少，导致成年三文鱼数量和体积减少。
P：引进成年三文鱼的食物虾
C：能够提升三文鱼数量
类型：解决方案，问削弱
分析：方案带来其它负面影响：例如虾会抢占幼年三文鱼的食物
选D

作者: anduyin 时间: 2022-10-29 14:55
同意！

作者: ladyJH 时间: 2022-10-29 15:48
同意！

作者: Baba886 时间: 2022-10-29 17:28
看一下！

作者: island0927 时间: 2022-10-29 18:53
感谢分享！

作者: Catherine107 时间: 2022-10-29 20:17
同意！

作者: Catherine107 时间: 2022-10-29 20:21

Day 40
1. 修桥
一个地方要修桥。修桥的钱要从民众募集。但是这个桥只有一部分居民经常使用，另一部分住在偏远地方的人用不上。所以向所有人募集钱是不公平的。Assumption
答：
假设题
假设：偏远地方的人不会间接受益于修桥

2. 珍稀白鲸
有一种珍稀白鲸死亡率很高而且原因是因为colison（忘了怎么拼了就是撞击那个单词）with ships 所以就调低了在某些白鲸密集区域船只航行速度的limit 果然白鲸数量上升了说明政策有效问还需要知道什么条件我选的是在没限速的区域白鲸的数量
答：
假设题
政策没有改变该区域船只的数量

3. 三文鱼和小虾米
The economy around Lake Paqua depends on fishing of the lake's landlocked salmon population. In recent years, scarcity of food for salmon there has caused a decline in both the number and the size of the adult salmon in the lake. As a result, the region's revenues from salmon fishing have declined significantly. To remedy this situation, officials plan to introduce shrimp, which can serve as a food source for adult salmon, into Lake Paqua.
Which of the following, if true, most seriously calls into question the plan's chances for success?
(A) Salmon is not a popular food among residents of the Lake Paqua region.
(B) Tourists coming to fish for sport generate more income for residents of the Lake Paqua region than does commercial fishing.
(C) The shrimp to be introduced into Lake Paqua are of a variety that is too small to be harvested for human consumption.
(D) The primary food for both shrimp and juvenile salmon is plankton, which is not abundant in Lake Paqua.
(E) Fishing regulations prohibit people from keeping any salmon they have caught in Lake Paqua that are smaller than a certain minimum size.
答：
D

作者: Yoga54 时间: 2022-10-29 20:40
同意！

作者: Yoga54 时间: 2022-10-29 20:50
1. 修桥
一个地方要修桥。修桥的钱要从民众募集。但是这个桥只有一部分居民经常使用，另一部分住在偏远地方的人用不上。所以向所有人募集钱是不公平的。Assumption
其他人不是必须通过这座桥跟偏远地区的人联系？

2. 珍稀白鲸
有一种珍稀白鲸死亡率很高而且原因是因为colison（忘了怎么拼了就是撞击那个单词）with ships 所以就调低了在某些白鲸密集区域船只航行速度的limit 果然白鲸数量上升了说明政策有效问还需要知道什么条件我选的是在没限速的区域白鲸的数量
船只数量没变
3. 三文鱼和小虾米
The economy around Lake Paqua depends on fishing of the lake's landlocked salmon population. In recent years, scarcity of food for salmon there has caused a decline in both the number and the size of the adult salmon in the lake. As a result, the region's revenues from salmon fishing have declined significantly. To remedy this situation, officials plan to introduce shrimp, which can serve as a food source for adult salmon, into Lake Paqua.
Which of the following, if true, most seriously calls into question the plan's chances for success?
(A) Salmon is not a popular food among residents of the Lake Paqua region.
(B) Tourists coming to fish for sport generate more income for residents of the Lake Paqua region than does commercial fishing.
(C) The shrimp to be introduced into Lake Paqua are of a variety that is too small to be harvested for human consumption.
(D) The primary food for both shrimp and juvenile salmon is plankton, which is not abundant in Lake Paqua.
(E) Fishing regulations prohibit people from keeping any salmon they have caught in Lake Paqua that are smaller than a certain minimum size.

光考虑adult不合适吧，是不是得考虑young salmon，D

作者: Baba886 时间: 2022-10-29 20:54
1.修桥：
假设住在偏远山区的人绝对不会用桥，不考虑其间接用桥的情况（eg:如偏远地区的粮食的供应的车辆需要通过这座桥）

2.珍惜白鲸：
即控制变量。如果限制前区域的白鲸数量比限制后同一个区域的白鲸数量多，则该政策的信度缺乏说服力，所有还需要知道限制区限制前后白鲸的数量。

3.D。虾的引入是为了增多三文鱼的食物来源，如果虾和三文鱼的食物来源有重叠，则虾的引入可能会减少三文鱼的食物来源，从而使得三文鱼数量进一步减少。

作者: 佛系A子在線讀書 时间: 2022-10-29 21:58
同意！

作者: mushroom_GMAT 时间: 2022-10-29 22:16
看一下！

作者: mushroom_GMAT 时间: 2022-10-29 22:32
看一下！

作者: mushroom_GMAT 时间: 2022-10-29 22:34
1. 修桥
一个地方要修桥。修桥的钱要从民众募集。但是这个桥只有一部分居民经常使用，另一部分住在偏远地方的人用不上。所以向所有人募集钱是不公平的。Assumption

按照使用频率收费是公平的

2. 珍稀白鲸
有一种珍稀白鲸死亡率很高而且原因是因为colison（忘了怎么拼了就是撞击那个单词）with ships 所以就调低了在某些白鲸密集区域船只航行速度的limit 果然白鲸数量上升了说明政策有效问还需要知道什么条件我选的是在没限速的区域白鲸的数量

没限速的区域白鲸的数量就很少

3. 三文鱼和小虾米
The economy around Lake Paqua depends on fishing of the lake's landlocked salmon population. In recent years, scarcity of food for salmon there has caused a decline in both the number and the size of the adult salmon in the lake. As a result, the region's revenues from salmon fishing have declined significantly. To remedy this situation, officials plan to introduce shrimp, which can serve as a food source for adult salmon, into Lake Paqua.
Which of the following, if true, most seriously calls into question the plan's chances for success?

(D) The primary food for both shrimp and juvenile salmon is plankton, which is not abundant in Lake Paqua.
方案的可行性不高

作者: 鸡麦特焖焖 时间: 2022-10-29 22:50
1

作者: 鸡麦特焖焖 时间: 2022-10-29 23:43

1. 修桥
一个地方要修桥。修桥的钱要从民众募集。但是这个桥只有一部分居民经常使用，另一部分住在偏远地方的人用不上。所以向所有人募集钱是不公平的。Assumption

P：一部分偏远的人用不上桥却要给钱修桥
C：向所有人募集钱不公平

逻辑：太远了用不上桥却要给钱-不公平
gap：1.修桥对偏远的人是否有用桥以外的好处
2.虽然偏远不容易用桥，但必要时是否很有用
3.公平的定义？
assumption：
1.修桥不是偏远的人去某地的必经之路
2.公共事务都是一起给钱的，其他好处那些不偏远的人捞不到也同样要给钱

2. 珍稀白鲸
有一种珍稀白鲸死亡率很高而且原因是因为colison（忘了怎么拼了就是撞击那个单词）with ships 所以就调低了在某些白鲸密集区域船只航行速度的limit 果然白鲸数量上升了说明政策有效问还需要知道什么条件我选的是在没限速的区域白鲸的数量

背景：和船撞击导致白鲸死亡率高
事实现象：白鲸数量上升
相关现象：此处限制了船速
C：限制船速可以导致白鲸数量上升
gap：是否有其他原因导致白鲸数量上升
同意狗主答案，有可能那段时间白鲸数量就是上升了

3. 三文鱼和小虾米
The economy around Lake Paqua depends on fishing of the lake's landlocked salmon population. In recent years, scarcity of food for salmon there has caused a decline in both the number and the size of the adult salmon in the lake. As a result, the region's revenues from salmon fishing have declined significantly. To remedy this situation, officials plan to introduce shrimp, which can serve as a food source for adult salmon, into Lake Paqua.

目的：增加成年三文鱼数量
方案：增加shrimp
有效性：shrimp并不足以挽救食物少的状况/shrimp会被其他鱼吃掉
副作用：shrimp导致三文鱼的predators更多

Which of the following, if true, most seriously calls into question the plan's chances for success?
(A) Salmon is not a popular food among residents of the Lake Paqua region.
(B) Tourists coming to fish for sport generate more income for residents of the Lake Paqua region than does commercial fishing.
(C) The shrimp to be introduced into Lake Paqua are of a variety that is too small to be harvested for human consumption.
(D) The primary food for both shrimp and juvenile salmon is plankton, which is not abundant in Lake Paqua.
(E) Fishing regulations prohibit people from keeping any salmon they have caught in Lake Paqua that are smaller than a certain minimum size.

D ABE都没提到方案
C无关

作者: abc1654 时间: 2022-10-30 06:03

作者: PennyWen95 时间: 2022-10-30 08:34
Mark一下！

作者: PennyWen95 时间: 2022-10-30 08:56
[揽瓜阁逻辑小分队] day40
1. 修桥
一个地方要修桥。修桥的钱要从民众募集。但是这个桥只有一部分居民经常使用，另一部分住在偏远地方的人用不上。所以向所有人募集钱是不公平的。Assumption

应该只对有使用桥梁的人收取费用。距离桥梁越远的偏远地方，越用不上桥梁。
加强：按照proportion来收费的；
削弱：虽然偏远的没走这里，但是通过他们产生的某些东西依旧是使用这座桥的；
☆ 按照走桥频率来收费是公平的

2. 珍稀白鲸
有一种珍稀白鲸死亡率很高而且原因是因为collision（忘了怎么拼了就是撞击那个单词）with ships 所以就调低了在某些白鲸密集区域船只航行速度的limit 果然白鲸数量上升了说明政策有效问还需要知道什么条件我选的是在没限速的区域白鲸的数量

是不是其他地方的白鲸最近也出现在白鲸密集区域
☆ 没限速的区域白鲸的数量（这里如果很多的情况下，加强结论）
☆ whale聚集到啥地方，死翘翘后尸体咋的漂浮出，然后沉船会碰到（削弱）

D

作者: Rickyri 时间: 2022-10-30 10:15
同意！

作者: 花花嘛嘛 时间: 2022-10-30 10:21
Mark一下！

作者: 700啊700 时间: 2022-10-30 10:54

修桥

一个地方要修桥。修桥的钱要从民众募集。但是这个桥只有一部分居民经常使用，另一部分住在偏远地方的人用不上。所以向所有人募集钱是不公平的。Assumption

募集钱与否与是否使用相关

2. 珍稀白鲸

有一种珍稀白鲸死亡率很高而且原因是因为colison（忘了怎么拼了就是撞击那个单词）with ships 所以就调低了在某些白鲸密集区域船只航行速度的limit 果然白鲸数量上升了说明政策有效问还需要知道什么条件

白鲸不密集区限航速后数量变化

3. 三文鱼和小虾米

The economy around Lake Paqua depends on fishing of the lake's landlocked salmon population. In recent years, scarcity of food for salmon there has caused a decline in both the number and the size of the adult salmon in the lake. As a result, the region's revenues from salmon fishing have declined significantly. To remedy this situation, officials plan to introduce shrimp, which can serve as a food source for adult salmon, into Lake Paqua.

Which of the following, if true, most seriously calls into question the plan's chances for success?

(A) Salmon is not a popular food among residents of the Lake Paqua region.

(B) Tourists coming to fish for sport generate more income for residents of the Lake Paqua region than does commercial fishing.

(C) The shrimp to be introduced into Lake Paqua are of a variety that is too small to be harvested for human consumption.

(D) The primary food for both shrimp and juvenile salmon is plankton, which is not abundant in Lake Paqua.

(E) Fishing regulations prohibit people from keeping any salmon they have caught in Lake Paqua that are smaller than a certain minimum size.

作者: 花花嘛嘛 时间: 2022-10-30 11:01
Day 40
1. 修桥
一个地方要修桥。修桥的钱要从民众募集。但是这个桥只有一部分居民经常使用，另一部分住在偏远地方的人用不上。所以向所有人募集钱是不公平的。Assumption
P：另一半偏远的人不用桥
C：募集钱不公平
Gap：不用=不用捐钱=公平
假设：在偏远地方修建水库，用不上的人是不用募集捐钱的
大家认为公平的标准就是谁用谁捐钱

2. 珍稀白鲸
有一种珍稀白鲸死亡率很高而且原因是因为colison（忘了怎么拼了就是撞击那个单词）with ships 所以就调低了在某些白鲸密集区域船只航行速度的limit 果然白鲸数量上升了说明政策有效问还需要知道什么条件我选的是在没限速的区域白鲸的数量
P：限制航行速度——白鲸数量增加
C：政策奏效
Gap：政策——白鲸数量增加
增强的方向：没有限制航行速度的区域，白鲸的死亡率仍然很高
排除他因：别的地方白鲸没有迁移过来；不是白鲸的繁殖期导致数量上升

3. 三文鱼和小虾米
The economy around Lake Paqua depends on fishing of the lake's landlocked salmon population. In recent years, scarcity of food for salmon there has caused a decline in both the number and the size of the adult salmon in the lake. As a result, the region's revenues from salmon fishing have declined significantly. To remedy this situation, officials plan to introduce shrimp, which can serve as a food source for adult salmon, into Lake Paqua.
Which of the following, if true, most seriously calls into question the plan's chances for success?
(A) Salmon is not a popular food among residents of the Lake Paqua region.
(B) Tourists coming to fish for sport generate more income for residents of the Lake Paqua region than does commercial fishing.
(C) The shrimp to be introduced into Lake Paqua are of a variety that is too small to be harvested for human consumption.
(D) The primary food for both shrimp and juvenile salmon is plankton, which is not abundant in Lake Paqua.
(E) Fishing regulations prohibit people from keeping any salmon they have caught in Lake Paqua that are smaller than a certain minimum size.
P：引进虾
C：三文鱼数量变多
Gap：虾来了——三文鱼存活率高——数量变多
削弱的方向：虾吃小三文鱼
虾来了不会引起三文鱼数量的增加

作者: Rickyri 时间: 2022-10-30 11:12

Ak777 发表于 2022-10-29 10:12
1. 修桥
一个地方要修桥。修桥的钱要从民众募集。但是这个桥只有一部分居民经常使用，另一部分住在偏远地方 ...

Day40
1. 修桥
一个地方要修桥。修桥的钱要从民众募集。但是这个桥只有一部分居民经常使用，另一部分住在偏远地方的人用不上。所以向所有人募集钱是不公平的。Assumption

P：桥只有一部分居民使用
C：向所有人募集钱不公平
假设：使用这个桥就应该付费，用的人多的付费多
【答案】
☆ 按照走桥频率来收费是公平的

2. 珍稀白鲸
有一种珍稀白鲸死亡率很高而且原因是因为collision（忘了怎么拼了就是撞击那个单词）with ships 所以就调低了在某些白鲸密集区域船只航行速度的limit 果然白鲸数量上升了说明政策有效问还需要知道什么条件我选的是在没限速的区域白鲸的数量

船航行速度下降->白鲸数量上升->政策有效
还有什么条件？没限速的地区白鲸数量少
【答案】
☆ 没限速的区域白鲸的数量（这里如果很多的情况下，加强结论）
☆ whale聚集到啥地方，死翘翘后尸体咋的漂浮出，然后沉船会碰到（削弱）

3.
食物减少->三文鱼减少->收入减少
引入虾米->三文鱼有食物->plan成功
plan成功的可能性不行-- CQ1:方案可行性 CQ2:方案可操作性 CQ3:方案的否定性副作用
三文鱼一定会吃虾米吗？有没有别的竞争？虾米投多了会不会有其他问题？虾米本身有没有问题？
选D
【考古原题】
The economy around Lake Paqua depends on fishing of the lake's landlocked salmon
population. In recent years, scarcity of food for salmon there has caused a decline in
both the number and the size of the adult salmon in the lake. As a result, the region's
revenues from salmon fishing have declined significantly. To remedy this situation,
officials plan to introduce shrimp, which can serve as a food source for adult salmon,
into Lake Paqua.
Which of the following, if true, most seriously calls into question the plan's chances for
success?
(A) Salmon is not a popular food among residents of the Lake Paqua region.
(B) Tourists coming to fish for sport generate more income for residents of the Lake
Paqua region than does commercial fishing.
(C) The shrimp to be introduced into Lake Paqua are of a variety that is too small to be
harvested for human consumption.
(D) The primary food for both shrimp and juvenile salmon is plankton, which is not
abundant in Lake Paqua.
(E) Fishing regulations prohibit people from keeping any salmon they have caught in
Lake Paqua that are smaller than a certain minimum size.
【答案】D

作者: Rickyri 时间: 2022-10-30 11:15
Day40
1. 修桥
一个地方要修桥。修桥的钱要从民众募集。但是这个桥只有一部分居民经常使用，另一部分住在偏远地方的人用不上。所以向所有人募集钱是不公平的。Assumption

P：桥只有一部分居民使用
C：向所有人募集钱不公平
假设：使用这个桥就应该付费，用的人多的付费多
【答案】
☆ 按照走桥频率来收费是公平的

2. 珍稀白鲸
有一种珍稀白鲸死亡率很高而且原因是因为collision（忘了怎么拼了就是撞击那个单词）with ships 所以就调低了在某些白鲸密集区域船只航行速度的limit 果然白鲸数量上升了说明政策有效问还需要知道什么条件我选的是在没限速的区域白鲸的数量

船航行速度下降->白鲸数量上升->政策有效
还有什么条件？没限速的地区白鲸数量少
【答案】
☆ 没限速的区域白鲸的数量（这里如果很多的情况下，加强结论）
☆ whale聚集到啥地方，死翘翘后尸体咋的漂浮出，然后沉船会碰到（削弱）

3.
食物减少->三文鱼减少->收入减少
引入虾米->三文鱼有食物->plan成功
plan成功的可能性不行-- CQ1:方案可行性 CQ2:方案可操作性 CQ3:方案的否定性副作用
三文鱼一定会吃虾米吗？有没有别的竞争？虾米投多了会不会有其他问题？虾米本身有没有问题？
选D
【考古原题】
The economy around Lake Paqua depends on fishing of the lake's landlocked salmon
population. In recent years, scarcity of food for salmon there has caused a decline in
both the number and the size of the adult salmon in the lake. As a result, the region's
revenues from salmon fishing have declined significantly. To remedy this situation,
officials plan to introduce shrimp, which can serve as a food source for adult salmon,
into Lake Paqua.
Which of the following, if true, most seriously calls into question the plan's chances for
success?
(A) Salmon is not a popular food among residents of the Lake Paqua region.
(B) Tourists coming to fish for sport generate more income for residents of the Lake
Paqua region than does commercial fishing.
(C) The shrimp to be introduced into Lake Paqua are of a variety that is too small to be
harvested for human consumption.
(D) The primary food for both shrimp and juvenile salmon is plankton, which is not
abundant in Lake Paqua.
(E) Fishing regulations prohibit people from keeping any salmon they have caught in
Lake Paqua that are smaller than a certain minimum size.
【答案】D

作者: slowdiving 时间: 2022-10-30 11:58
看一下！

作者: slowdiving 时间: 2022-10-30 12:10
10.29
1.p：这个桥只有一部分居民经常使用，另一部分住在偏远地方的人用不上
c：所以向所有人募集钱是不公平的
答案猜测：assumption
a.以使用次数来衡量价值（与之相对的削弱有，偏远地区虽然使用次数少，但是连接了输送物质的命脉或者很重要的交通要道），所以也是假设了偏远地区的人不需要用这个桥来实现重要交通 ✅
b.募集的金额会影响公平，所有人都要交差不多的钱吗（偏远地区少交不就行了）
2.p：调低了在某些白鲸密集区域船只航行速度的limit
c：果然白鲸数量上升了说明政策有效
gap：是否只是白鲸数量上升的巧合
答案猜测：还需要什么条件
没限速的区域的白鲸的数量 ✅
3.goal：提供更多食物给salmon缓解饥荒
plan：引进一种新的虾
答案猜测：质疑
有效性：新的虾是否会真的缓解饥荒，是否会和salmon抢食 D ✅

作者: ladyJH 时间: 2022-10-30 12:17
Day 40
修桥1.
P: 桥只有一部分居民经常使用，另一部分住在偏远地方的人用不上
C: 向所有人募集钱是不公平的
Assumption: 偏远地区的人确定一直不会用桥
按照走桥的频率来收费是公平的
2. 珍稀白鲸
没限速区域白鲸数量没有上升
3. 三文鱼和小虾米
D 三文鱼的事物本来就scarcity，虾米又吃，解决不了原文问题

作者: EchoQAQ 时间: 2022-10-30 12:30
看一下

作者: ElodieZHU 时间: 2022-10-30 13:01
同意！

作者: ElodieZHU 时间: 2022-10-30 14:36
1. 修桥
一个地方要修桥。修桥的钱要从民众募集。但是这个桥只有一部分居民经常使用，另一部分住在偏远地方的人用不上。所以向所有人募集钱是不公平的。Assumption

前提：一部分在偏远地区的人用不上这个桥
结论：向所有人募集钱不公平
演绎推理
假设：建了这个桥后对偏远地区的人的生活没有一点改善（不会方便贸易之类的）

2. 珍稀白鲸
有一种珍稀白鲸死亡率很高而且原因是因为colison（忘了怎么拼了就是撞击那个单词）with ships 所以就调低了在某些白鲸密集区域船只航行速度的limit 果然白鲸数量上升了说明政策有效问还需要知道什么条件我选的是在没限速的区域白鲸的数量

事实：白鲸因为撞击船，死亡率很高
前提：调低白鲸密集地区船航行速度
结论：白鲸数量上升，政策有效
逻辑链：调低速度-白鲸数量⬆️
补充条件：上升的数量是不是在这个降低速度的地区发生的

3. 三文鱼和小虾米
The economy around Lake Paqua depends on fishing of the lake's landlocked salmon population. In recent years, scarcity of food for salmon there has caused a decline in both the number and the size of the adult salmon in the lake. As a result, the region's revenues from salmon fishing have declined significantly. To remedy this situation, officials plan to introduce shrimp, which can serve as a food source for adult salmon, into Lake Paqua.
前提：三文鱼的食物减少，导致三文鱼数量大小下降
方案：引入虾作为三文鱼的食物
方案推理
Which of the following, if true, most seriously calls into question the plan's chances for success?
削弱：副作用、可行性、可操作性
(A) Salmon is not a popular food among residents of the Lake Paqua region.
(B) Tourists coming to fish for sport generate more income for residents of the Lake Paqua region than does commercial fishing.
(C) The shrimp to be introduced into Lake Paqua are of a variety that is too small to be harvested for human consumption.
(D) The primary food for both shrimp and juvenile salmon is plankton, which is not abundant in Lake Paqua. 引入虾，虾还得和三文鱼竞争食物，自己估计也活不久
(E) Fishing regulations prohibit people from keeping any salmon they have caught in Lake Paqua that are smaller than a certain minimum size.

作者: miawang00088 时间: 2022-10-30 18:22
1 用不上=不公平
as：用不上，也没有其他方式呈现的好处，比如
2 在白鲸密集区限制航行速度--白鲸数量上升了--》限速有效
as：没有其他原因让白敬数量上升，比如，这段时间白鲸的繁殖能力提高
3 增加shrimp提供食物--salmon数量和尺寸变大
as：可以往河里增加shrimp
增加shrimp提供食物可以让salmon数量和尺寸变大
weak：投入shrimp，s也没有足够的食物，所以不能最终增加salmon的食物让其增加

作者: island0927 时间: 2022-10-30 19:11
1. 修桥
一个地方要修桥。修桥的钱要从民众募集。但是这个桥只有一部分居民经常使用，另一部分住在偏远地方的人用不上。所以向所有人募集钱是不公平的。Assumption只有用的人才要交钱。取非不用的话不用交钱

2. 珍稀白鲸
有一种珍稀白鲸死亡率很高而且原因是因为colison（忘了怎么拼了就是撞击那个单词）with ships 所以就调低了在某些白鲸密集区域船只航行速度的limit 果然白鲸数量上升了说明政策有效问还需要知道什么条件我选的是在没限速的区域白鲸的数量撞击=》鲸鱼数量下降
没撞击的地方鲸鱼数量如何？如果是更多就可以符合。
限速和不限速的地方进行对比，如果死亡率下降，说明限速可以提高白鲸数量。
如果死亡率不变，就说明速度对白净无影响

3. 三文鱼和小虾米
The economy around Lake Paqua depends on fishing of the lake's landlocked salmon population. In recent years, scarcity of food for salmon there has caused a decline in both the number and the size of the adult salmon in the lake. As a result, the region's revenues from salmon fishing have declined significantly. To remedy this situation, officials plan to introduce shrimp, which can serve as a food source for adult salmon, into Lake Paqua.
Which of the following, if true, most seriously calls into question the plan's chances for success?
(A) Salmon is not a popular food among residents of the Lake Paqua region.
(B) Tourists coming to fish for sport generate more income for residents of the Lake Paqua region than does commercial fishing.
(C) The shrimp to be introduced into Lake Paqua are of a variety that is too small to be harvested for human consumption.
(D) The primary food for both shrimp and juvenile salmon is plankton, which is not abundant in Lake Paqua.
(E) Fishing regulations prohibit people from keeping any salmon they have caught in Lake Paqua that are smaller than a certain minimum size.

通过投入?=》提高三文鱼数量
三文鱼一定吃的到吗 ?投放之后能活下来吗？，有没有可能排放杂物威胁到了三文鱼的数量

作者: 佛系A子在線讀書 时间: 2022-10-30 20:41
1.修橋向所有人募資不公平(應該要使用者付費)
>>住在偏遠地區的人沒有間接使用到這座橋(從城市過來的物資一定要經過這座橋才能到之類)

2.白鯨因為撞船所以死亡率高，把船速調低之後白鯨數量就變多了，所以這個做法有效
>>白鯨的死亡只跟船速有關，不可以有他因

3.引進蝦米讓鮭魚吃，assume魚會變多
>>D

作者: vestofmmw 时间: 2022-10-30 21:19
看一下！

作者: 多喝烫水 时间: 2022-10-30 21:27
看一下！

作者: vestofmmw 时间: 2022-10-30 21:36
1. 修桥
一个地方要修桥。修桥的钱要从民众募集。但是这个桥只有一部分居民经常使用，另一部分住在偏远地方的人用不上。所以向所有人募集钱是不公平的。AssumptionP 修桥募捐，一部分人使用桥
C 向所有人收钱不公平
Q assumption
捐多少钱应该和用桥频率成正比

2. 珍稀白鲸
有一种珍稀白鲸死亡率很高而且原因是因为colison（忘了怎么拼了就是撞击那个单词）with ships 所以就调低了在某些白鲸密集区域船只航行速度的limit 果然白鲸数量上升了说明政策有效问还需要知道什么条件我选的是在没限速的区域白鲸的数量
P 珍稀白鲸死亡率可能是因为撞船→调整白鲸密集区航速
C 白鲸数量上升→政策有效
Q assumption
选项白鲸密集区其他鱼数量也上升了

3. 三文鱼和小虾米
The economy around Lake Paqua depends on fishing of the lake's landlocked salmon population. In recent years, scarcity of food for salmon there has caused a decline in both the number and the size of the adult salmon in the lake. As a result, the region's revenues from salmon fishing have declined significantly. To remedy this situation, officials plan to introduce shrimp, which can serve as a food source for adult salmon, into Lake Paqua.
Which of the following, if true, most seriously calls into question the plan's chances for success?
(A) Salmon is not a popular food among residents of the Lake Paqua region.
(B) Tourists coming to fish for sport generate more income for residents of the Lake Paqua region than does commercial fishing.
(C) The shrimp to be introduced into Lake Paqua are of a variety that is too small to be harvested for human consumption.
(D) The primary food for both shrimp and juvenile salmon is plankton, which is not abundant in Lake Paqua.
(E) Fishing regulations prohibit people from keeping any salmon they have caught in Lake Paqua that are smaller than a certain minimum size.

weaken题，找虾不好的选项。D

作者: 多喝烫水 时间: 2022-10-30 21:51
day40
1、假设：这些偏远地方的人不再其他方面用这些桥（用这种向所有人募集的方法很公平）
2、船只的速度确实与白鲸的数量有关
3、D通过引进新的食物（虾）来源来改善三文鱼的数量，但是虾在这也存活不了太多（因为虾的食物也非常少）

作者: T7willG700 时间: 2022-10-31 01:17

作者: lastchance2010 时间: 2022-10-31 12:25
感谢分享！

作者: lastchance2010 时间: 2022-10-31 12:39
Day 40
1. 修桥
一个地方要修桥。修桥的钱要从民众募集。但是这个桥只有一部分居民经常使用，另一部分住在偏远地方的人用不上。所以向所有人募集钱是不公平的。Assumption
答案：偏移的人里面没有需要用到这个桥去别的地方的；不太会啊，原理或者必然结果。。。不用就不出钱就是公平？

2. 珍稀白鲸
有一种珍稀白鲸死亡率很高而且原因是因为colison（忘了怎么拼了就是撞击那个单词）with ships 所以就调低了在某些白鲸密集区域船只航行速度的limit 果然白鲸数量上升了说明政策有效问还需要知道什么条件我选的是在没限速的区域白鲸的数量
答案：都有什么变了 – 速度而且只是某些区域，那就看看没有限速的区域有没有一样的结果，有就说明跟限速无关。

3. 三文鱼和小虾米 D

作者: shirleyliu_46 时间: 2022-10-31 13:44
看一下！

作者: shirleyliu_46 时间: 2022-10-31 13:49
1. 只有获得好处的人才应该为了修桥出钱; 住在偏远地区的人不会因为修桥而获得好处（例如地区经济整体发展更好）
2. 控制变量，没有实行航行速度限制的地区白鲸数量是否上升
3. D

作者: OuyangYang 时间: 2022-10-31 15:46
同意！

作者: OuyangYang 时间: 2022-10-31 19:50
1. 修桥
P：向民众募捐修桥
P：只有一部分人要用，远的人用不上
C：向所有人募资不公平
问assumption：
分析：远处的人不会因为修桥间接受益
2. 珍稀白鲸
有一种珍稀白鲸死亡率很高而且原因是因为colison（忘了怎么拼了就是撞击那个单词）with ships 所以就调低了在某些白鲸密集区域船只航行速度的limit 果然白鲸数量上升了说明政策有效问还需要知道什么条件我选的是在没限速的区域白鲸的数量
P：白鲸因为船只撞击死亡率很高
P：在白鲸密集地限制了船只航行的速度，白鲸数量上升
C：限制船速有效
问缺少的条件
解析：在白鲸不密集的地方减速也有效
3. 三文鱼和小虾米
P：经济依靠三文鱼的数量
P：三文鱼的食物减少导致数量和大小减少
P：当地经济受损
C：引入shrimp作为成年三文鱼的食物，解决上述问题
问削弱
分析：找shrimp无法作为或者满足三文鱼食物的选项；D说shrimp和小三文鱼的食物不够，那这样的话shrimp和小三文鱼可能会数量减少，三文鱼数量还是会减少。

作者: Sophie_Lee 时间: 2022-11-1 15:00
看一下！

作者: Sophie_Lee 时间: 2022-11-1 15:14
1. 修桥
一个地方要修桥。修桥的钱要从民众募集。但是这个桥只有一部分居民经常使用，另一部分住在偏远地方的人用不上。所以向所有人募集钱是不公平的。Assumption

想偏远地方匀速物资啥的也不会通过这座桥/ 偏远地区的人和这座桥一点关系都没有

2. 珍稀白鲸
有一种珍稀白鲸死亡率很高而且原因是因为colison（忘了怎么拼了就是撞击那个单词）with ships 所以就调低了在某些白鲸密集区域船只航行速度的limit 果然白鲸数量上升了说明政策有效问还需要知道什么条件我选的是在没限速的区域白鲸的数量

3. 三文鱼和小虾米
The economy around Lake Paqua depends on fishing of the lake's landlocked salmon population. In recent years, scarcity of food for salmon there has caused a decline in both the number and the size of the adult salmon in the lake. As a result, the region's revenues from salmon fishing have declined significantly. To remedy this situation, officials plan to introduce shrimp, which can serve as a food source for adult salmon, into Lake Paqua.
Which of the following, if true, most seriously calls into question the plan's chances for success? D
(A) Salmon is not a popular food among residents of the Lake Paqua region.
(B) Tourists coming to fish for sport generate more income for residents of the Lake Paqua region than does commercial fishing.
(C) The shrimp to be introduced into Lake Paqua are of a variety that is too small to be harvested for human consumption.
(D) The primary food for both shrimp and juvenile salmon is plankton, which is not abundant in Lake Paqua.
(E) Fishing regulations prohibit people from keeping any salmon they have caught in Lake Paqua that are smaller than a certain minimum size.

作者: cdnbyd 时间: 2022-11-1 15:18
mark

作者: ZZhiyan 时间: 2022-11-1 23:55
看一下！

作者: ZZhiyan 时间: 2022-11-2 00:11
1. 修桥
一个地方要修桥。修桥的钱要从民众募集。但是这个桥只有一部分居民经常使用，另一部分住在偏远地方的人用不上。所以向所有人募集钱是不公平的。Assumption
答案：偏远地方的人不会因为修桥收益

2. 珍稀白鲸
有一种珍稀白鲸死亡率很高而且原因是因为colison（忘了怎么拼了就是撞击那个单词）with ships 所以就调低了在某些白鲸密集区域船只航行速度的limit 果然白鲸数量上升了说明政策有效问还需要知道什么条件我选的是在没限速的区域白鲸的数量
答案：没限速区的白鲸数量比限速的少很多，说明限速是有效措施

3. 三文鱼和小虾米
The economy around Lake Paqua depends on fishing of the lake's landlocked salmon population. In recent years, scarcity of food for salmon there has caused a decline in both the number and the size of the adult salmon in the lake. As a result, the region's revenues from salmon fishing have declined significantly. To remedy this situation, officials plan to introduce shrimp, which can serve as a food source for adult salmon, into Lake Paqua.
Which of the following, if true, most seriously calls into question the plan's chances for success?
(A) Salmon is not a popular food among residents of the Lake Paqua region.
(B) Tourists coming to fish for sport generate more income for residents of the Lake Paqua region than does commercial fishing.
(C) The shrimp to be introduced into Lake Paqua are of a variety that is too small to be harvested for human consumption.
(D) The primary food for both shrimp and juvenile salmon is plankton, which is not abundant in Lake Paqua.
(E) Fishing regulations prohibit people from keeping any salmon they have caught in Lake Paqua that are smaller than a certain minimum size.

作者: PBkk 时间: 2022-11-2 00:13
看一下！

作者: Xxxxxyi 时间: 2022-11-2 18:33
111

作者: PBkk 时间: 2022-11-2 20:07
1. 修桥
一个地方要修桥。修桥的钱要从民众募集。但是这个桥只有一部分居民经常使用，另一部分住在偏远地方的人用不上。所以向所有人募集钱是不公平的。Assumption

P：一部分居民能用 & 一部分居民用不上
C：向所有人募集资金不公平

Assumption：
1）募钱的公平标准：根据使用/受益频次决定
2）任何关于“不同居民受益程度不同”的描述。

2. 珍稀白鲸
有一种珍稀白鲸死亡率很高而且原因是因为colison（忘了怎么拼了就是撞击那个单词）with ships 所以就调低了在某些白鲸密集区域船只航行速度的limit 果然白鲸数量上升了说明政策有效问还需要知道什么条件我选的是在没限速的区域白鲸的数量

P（现象）：调低航行速度同时，白鲸数量上升
C（结论）：调低航行速度的政策 -> 白鲸数量上升

条件：控制变量 - 没有政策 & 白鲸数量的关系

3. 三文鱼和小虾米
The economy around Lake Paqua depends on fishing of the lake's landlocked salmon population. In recent years, scarcity of food for salmon there has caused a decline in both the number and the size of the adult salmon in the lake. As a result, the region's revenues from salmon fishing have declined significantly. To remedy this situation, officials plan to introduce shrimp, which can serve as a food source for adult salmon, into Lake Paqua.
Which of the following, if true, most seriously calls into question the plan's chances for success?
(A) Salmon is not a popular food among residents of the Lake Paqua region.
(B) Tourists coming to fish for sport generate more income for residents of the Lake Paqua region than does commercial fishing.
(C) The shrimp to be introduced into Lake Paqua are of a variety that is too small to be harvested for human consumption.
(D) The primary food for both shrimp and juvenile salmon is plankton, which is not abundant in Lake Paqua.
(E) Fishing regulations prohibit people from keeping any salmon they have caught in Lake Paqua that are smaller than a certain minimum size.

P：没食物 -> size & number of adult salmon下降 - > revenue下降
C：引入虾 -> 有食物 -> size & number of adult salmon不下降 - > revenue不下降

引入虾是否能导致有食物？D 反驳了该逻辑链条

作者: WinnerWSW 时间: 2022-11-11 19:14
同意！

作者: WinnerWSW 时间: 2022-11-13 16:12
1. 修桥
一个地方要修桥。修桥的钱要从民众募集。但是这个桥只有一部分居民经常使用，另一部分住在偏远地方的人用不上。所以向所有人募集钱是不公平的。Assumption解析：
假设题：
①桥修好之后会有一部分居民经常使用，这些居民转而去使用新桥并不能减弱偏远地区居民的交通负担，或者这些居民去使用新桥对于偏远地区居民来说没有一丁点好处，如果是这样的话，新桥确实跟偏远地区的居民不相干，他们才有理由不交钱，如果，这座新桥能分流一部分居民而减轻偏远居民出行时的交通负担（比如，拥堵减轻）或者这些被分流的居民不再需要经过偏远地区居民们的住宅区，以此减少了偏远地区的污染和噪音，那么这些都可以算作新桥为偏远地区居民带来的好处，尽管偏远地区居民虽然没有直接利用这座桥出行，但是他们也间接地获得了建桥的好处，应该交钱。

2. 珍稀白鲸
有一种珍稀白鲸死亡率很高而且原因是因为collision with ships 所以就调低了在某些白鲸密集区域船只航行速度的limit 果然白鲸数量上升了说明政策有效问还需要知道什么条件我选的是在没限速的区域白鲸的数量解析：
①要评估一项政策是否有效，需要用到“无因是否也有果”来判定政策到底有没有带来变化，所以需要与没有进行限速的区域的白鲸数量变化进行对比，如果没限速的区域白鲸数量与之前没区别，还是有那么高的死亡率，而限速区的白鲸数量死亡率没那么高了，就能够说明限速确实有效果；但如果没限速区的白鲸死亡率也降低了（无因也有果），那就不能确定限速是有效的了，可能还有其他的因素造成白鲸死亡率降低。

3. 三文鱼和小虾米
The economy around Lake Paqua depends on fishing of the lake's landlocked salmon population. In recent years, scarcity of food for salmon there has caused a decline in both the number and the size of the adult salmon in the lake. As a result, the region's revenues from salmon fishing have declined significantly. To remedy this situation, officials plan to introduce shrimp, which can serve as a food source for adult salmon, into Lake Paqua.
Which of the following, if true, most seriously calls into question the plan's chances for success?
(A) Salmon is not a popular food among residents of the Lake Paqua region.
(B) Tourists coming to fish for sport generate more income for residents of the Lake Paqua region than does commercial fishing.
(C) The shrimp to be introduced into Lake Paqua are of a variety that is too small to be harvested for human consumption.
(D) The primary food for both shrimp and juvenile salmon is plankton, which is not abundant in Lake Paqua.
(E) Fishing regulations prohibit people from keeping any salmon they have caught in Lake Paqua that are smaller than a certain minimum size.
答案：D
解析：
削弱题
某地的经济依靠捕捞湖里的鲑鱼，但是近年来由于鲑鱼的食物缺乏，导致成年鲑鱼数量和大小都减小了，当地的渔业收入也大幅下降，为了解决这个问题，官员们计划引入一种可以作为成年鲑鱼食物的虾。以下哪项成立的话，会削弱这个计划？
A.对于该湖当地的居民来说，鲑鱼并不是一种受欢迎的食物。无关选项，鲑鱼作为食物受不受到当地人欢迎都不影响其成为当地的经济收入来源，因为可以把鲑鱼运出去卖给外地人。
B.把捕获P湖里的鲑鱼当作一种运动的游客为当地居民带来的收入超过了商业化的渔业收入。与主要逻辑线无关，没提到作为鲑鱼食物的虾能不能对当地渔业经济起到改善作用。就算吸引游客来钓鱼产生的经济收益大于商业捕鱼，但是并不能否认把商业化捕鱼振兴起来可以为当地增加更多收入。
C.被引入P湖的虾的品种太小而不能供人类食用。无关，虾是鲑鱼的食物，没说是给人类准备的。
D.虾和幼年鲑鱼的主要食物浮游生物在P湖里并不丰富。正确，表明虾的引入会与幼年鲑鱼起到竞争作用，不管二者中谁的竞争力更强都会对渔业不利，如果虾的竞争力更强，虽然虾能作为成年鲑鱼的食物，但是对于食物本就不丰富的幼年鲑鱼来说是雪上加霜，幼年鲑鱼还没长大到能够吃虾的年纪就饿死了。如果幼年鲑鱼的竞争力更强，那么虾的食物有都被幼年鲑鱼抢走了，虾在这个湖里活不下去，那么成年鲑鱼还是缺乏食物，引不引入没区别。
E.渔业的规定禁止人们养殖他们在P湖抓的比某最小尺寸还小的鲑鱼。与逻辑主线无关，没有提到引入虾的影响，并且该选项具有支持的意味，而不是削弱。

作者: 顾周i 时间: 2023-2-26 16:45

Day 40

1. 修桥
一个地方要修桥。修桥的钱要从民众募集。但是这个桥只有一部分居民经常使用，另一部分住在偏远地方的人用不上。所以向所有人募集钱是不公平的。Assumption

削弱点：你自己不用，你衣食住行生活起居进口出口也不用是吧

assumption：对，咱不用，各个方面都不用

2. 珍稀白鲸
有一种珍稀白鲸死亡率很高而且原因是因为colison（忘了怎么拼了就是撞击那个单词）with ships 所以就调低了在某些白鲸密集区域船只航行速度的limit 果然白鲸数量上升了说明政策有效问还需要知道什么条件我选的是在没限速的区域白鲸的数量

白鲸撞船就容易嘎了——船只降速——白鲸数量上升

C：政策有效

补gap：

切入点：白鲸数量上涨是他因导致，所以要排他因，加强限速和白鲸数量之间的逻辑关联

取非：不限速的地区，白鲸数量仍然是下降的

3. 三文鱼和小虾米
The economy around Lake Paqua depends on fishing of the lake's landlocked salmon population. In recent years, scarcity of food for salmon there has caused a decline in both the number and the size of the adult salmon in the lake. As a result, the region's revenues from salmon fishing have declined significantly. To remedy this situation, officials plan to introduce shrimp, which can serve as a food source for adult salmon, into Lake Paqua.
Which of the following, if true, most seriously calls into question the plan's chances for success?
(A) Salmon is not a popular food among residents of the Lake Paqua region.
(B) Tourists coming to fish for sport generate more income for residents of the Lake Paqua region than does commercial fishing.
(C) The shrimp to be introduced into Lake Paqua are of a variety that is too small to be harvested for human consumption.
(D) The primary food for both shrimp and juvenile salmon is plankton, which is not abundant in Lake Paqua.
(E) Fishing regulations prohibit people from keeping any salmon they have caught in Lake Paqua that are smaller than a certain minimum size.

这题做过，虾米不和三文鱼抢吃的——D

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