24-14: In 1983 Argonia’s currency, the argon, underwent a reduction in value relative to the world’s strongest currencies. This reduction resulted in a significant increase in Argonia’s exports over 1982 levels. In 1987 a similar reduction in the value of the argon led to another increase in Argonia’s exports. Faced with the need to increase exports yet again, Argonia’s finance minister has proposed another reduction in the value of the argon.
Which of the following, if true, most strongly supports the prediction that the finance minister’s plan will not result in a significant increase in Argonia’s exports next year?
A) The value of the argon rose sharply last year against the world’s strongest currencies.
B) In 1988 the argon lost a small amount of its value, and Argonians exports rose slightly in 1989.
C) The value of Argonia’s exports was lower last year than it was the year before.
D) All of Argonia’s export products are made by factories that were operating at full capacity last year, and new factories would take years to build.
E) Reductions in the value of the argon have almost always led to significant reductions in the amount of goods and services that Argonians purchase from abroad.
answer is D, however obviously there is a gap between the statements of option D and the argument of the question. No evidence establishes that all of Argonia’s export has already reach its peak so that no additional marginal export can be gained through the currency reduction.
Let us consider this case, there are many export productions in the stocks of the factories which operate at the full capacity. Therefore the currency reduction truely can increase the export.
Please give me some help, I really can not figure out the correct answer.
In my opinion, the Best choice should be A. If the currency has already reached such a high level that a little reduction may not eventually stimulate the export.
呵呵呵呵呵。
自己想通了。
浪费CD的宝贵资源了
According to your hypothesis to the stocks of the factories, we could also hypothesize that after a peak level of value of argon, there was a rapidly drop following...
Lets add a "not" in A, and I think that even last year value of the argon droped, no effects on the this year's situation.
Similarly, by adding a "not" in D, if factories have no capacities for new products, definitely no exports, and no increase of value of argon.
Lets discuss
Luckgirls, I did not make clear your point.
Actually this is a weaken type, do you mean that this kind of issue can be soluted in the same method of assumption type?
支持D
A不对哦.因为passage中已经提到的"两次贬值带来两次出口增加”并没有specify贬值前货币的价值情况，也即不管它之前有没有升值，只要贬值了，出口就增加了（从历史的情况来看）
D是正确的，因为就算贬值带来了出口需求的增加，由于生产力的不足，出口产品的实际出口数量仍然不会增加
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