AA133的提纲，请赐教 - ChaseDream

133.

The following appeared as part of a business plan by the Capital Idea investment firm.

“In recent years the worldwide demand for fish has grown, and improvements in fishing technology have made larger catches and thus increased supply possible: for example, last year’s tuna catch was 9 percent greater than the previous year’s. To capitalize on these trends, we should therefore invest in the new pugfish processing plant on Pugfish Island, where increasing revenues from tourism indicate a strong local economy.”

133. CI投资公司的商业计划：
最近几年，全球范围内对鱼的需求增加，而且捕鱼技术的提高使捕捞量增大，因此使增加供应成为可能。例如，去年的Tuna鱼的捕捞量比前年增加了9％。为了投资于这个趋势，我们应该投资Tartfish岛的新的tartfish处理设备，那里来自旅游业的收入的增长显示了很强的本地经济。

1/ insufficient sample: last year’s increase in tuna catch is not sufficient to prove that fish catch as a whole has been increased by improvements in fishing technology.

2/ gratuitous assumption: increasing revenues from tourism is a good indicator of a strong local economy

对于“应该投资于tartfish processing plant on Tartfish Island” 应该怎么驳呢？请xdjm们指点指点

misapplied generalization:就算世界捕鱼总的趋势是增加的，但是这个趋势未必在这个岛上能够应用。例如这个岛的环境因素，就算投资了捕鱼处理厂（new pugfish processing plant） 在这个岛上，虽然有了技术，但是可能水质问题导致鱼的少，而不能带来利益。

要是我就这么写，不知道对不对，期待着大家的反驳与新观点！

-- 作者：sacrati
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挺好的驳点，我以前一直忽视了misaaplied generalization 这种错误。

另外觉得另一个问题就是：“a strong local economy” 不能成为tartfish processing plant will be profitable 的有力证据。