A14. The following appeared in a memo from the president of the Meltaway Company, a producer of ice cream.
“Health concerns and convenience appear to be the key factors affecting sales of ice cream. Last year’s publication of research suggesting that some types of fat can be beneficial to health must have made people more willing to eat regular ice cream, which contains fat. Over the past year, national sales of regular ice cream increased about 8 percent, while sales of fat-free or lowfat ice cream increased by only 1 percent. During the same time period, sales of ice cream were similarly affected by consumers’ demand for convenience, as grocery stores increased their sales volume for ice cream by 9 percent, compared to a 3 percent increase for ice-cream parlors and other stores specializing in ice cream. Therefore, we can expect that most of our profits over the next few years will come from providing regular ice cream to grocery stores.”
1The positive statistical relationship does not necessarily guarantee the author's assertion.
2Whether those types of fat are contained in the regular ice cream is still open to doubt.
3Other factors such as the prices of those two kinds of ice cream may contribute to the different increase rate.
4The absolute sales volumes are unkonwn, thus making the author's conclusion gratuitous.
Add my something: Even if all of the foregoing is right,(1,2,3,4) M can not surely guarantee their profits in the future. Rivals of M will probably also realize such key factors as convenience and then adjust their sales campign to focus more on grocery stores. Thus the competition will be fierce, and profits of the whole industry may be come down.
1。时间上的错误，前不等于后。fat theory may be replaced by its opposite side.
2。没有排除其他的因素影响了两种icecream price.
3.statistics used to indicate the unchanged condition of convenience is just in fact to demonstrate that it is easier to buy icecream from grocery.
1.充分性。the two factors mentioned in the author's recommendation might not be sufficient to bring about the desired result。忽略了他因
2.时间上的外推错误。去年的消费和增长趋势不一定continue in the next few years
3.统计数据是否被精确表述。见斑竹姐姐的第四条4 The absolute sales volumes are unkonwn, thus making the author's conclusion gratuitous.
Since this argument includes too many aspects to be questioned and to organize similar flaws into one topic sentence or into one paragraph is quite tough, I am wondering whether we can write the essay just following the given sequence in the argument.
(1) The factor that people will be willing to consume more fat by way of eating ice cream can boost sales of regular ice cream.
(2) The convenience of different stores causes those distinct increasing rates yet the market shares of different kinds of stores are unknown.
As a result, this essay will have only 4 paragraphs.
Open to discuss.
there is an assumption in the argument which says the grocery store is the most convenient place to buy ice cream.However,....
1, Future study may find that regular ice cream does not contain the right types of fat and thus discourage people to consume in the future.
2, Future study may also find that regular ice cream contains too much or certain type of fat that is detrimental to health, and therefor discourage people to consume in the future.
3, Supporting factors should also be considered, including services, prices, etc. These factors may change in the future and old claim may not hold if this happens.
4, the others discussed before: unrepresentative samples; past results not indicative of future development; etc.
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