A13. The following appeared in a memo from the vice president of the Fizzle Soda Company.
“There is apparently a market for new beverages, as can be seen from the fact that other companies have recently introduced new juice drinks and sports drinks. Given this market and customer surveys indicating that many drinkers of regular Fizzle soda add chocolate syrup to their soda, we can increase our company’s sales by creating a new chocolate-flavored soda, ‘Choco-Fizz.’ Choco-Fizz will help us attract new customers and keep our customers who might otherwise switch to our competitors’ chocolate beverages. And Choco-Fizz will be more successful than Fizzle Plus, our most recently introduced flavor, because it will be easier to distinguish from regular Fizzle soda.”
1There is no causal relationshiop between the introductions of new drinks and the apparent market for new beverages.
2The process of the survey has not been given which makes the suggestion open to doubt.
3The competitors' promotion strategies should be considered. If they also add the syrup, the success can not be guaranteed.
4Easy to distinguishi does not necessarily mean good sale.
错误假设： 开发有巧克力口味的饮料是从竞争者那赢得顾客的唯一因素。 也许竞争者公司靠的是其他因素，比如一些兑奖活动。所以即便两个公司都卖同类饮料，你也不能说吸引新顾客而且拉住老顾客。
哦哦哦，还真想不出来别的大毛病了……
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