ChaseDream
搜索
123下一页
返回列表 发新帖
查看: 3941|回复: 28

[阅读小分队] 【Native Speaker每日综合训练—45系列】【45-06】经管

[复制链接]
发表于 2014-11-28 19:44:40 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
内容Wensd1111 编辑neverland1021

Stay tuned to our latest post! Follow us here ---> http://weibo.com/u/3476904471

本期的小分队关注矿业,speaker是关于高盛与摩根的大宗商品交易欺诈;speed有矿业股票投资,矿业基金;obstacle来自高盛“铁矿石时代的结束”。
大家,enjoy!

Part I: Speaker

Senate Panel Probes Fed's Oversight Of Commodity Trading


Source: NPR
http://www.npr.org/2014/11/21/365638369/senate-panel-probes-fed-s-oversight-of-commodity-trading

[Rephrase 1, 1:58]

本帖子中包含更多资源

您需要 登录 才可以下载或查看,没有帐号?立即注册

x
 楼主| 发表于 2014-11-28 19:44:41 | 显示全部楼层
Part II: Speed


How to Invest in Mining Stocks
by Nihar Patel

[Time 2]
Base materials always have been an attractive investment. These materials are the basic building blocks of everything. Mining stocks are a way to invest in these base materials, but as an ongoing business rather than directly in a certain commodity. Investing in mining stocks is as simple as buying any other stock, but you do not always have to buy stock in the companies to invest in them.

Step 1
Create a list of mining companies, as well as exchange traded funds (ETFs) that invest in mining companies. You can find companies by searching by sector or industry on stock screeners. ETFs can be found through the ETF database. ETFs are the quickest way to diversify your investment and can simplify research and monitoring. ETFs pool capital and invest in a way that is consistent with their focus. There are general mining ETFs or specialized ETFs, such as those that invest in junior miners.

Step 2
Study how the company's stock moves with the primary metals it extracts and sells. These are companies, so standard business metrics such as profit margins apply to the analysis, but they generate revenue by extracting and selling metals. Keep in mind that price changes in the metal will have an effect on the price of the mining stock, though this factor varies among companies and metals. Most companies do not focus on only one metal. The relationship is not always clear, but understanding the relationship between the price of the metal and the mining stock will help identify significant events.

Step 3
Buy the stock once you understand it, and monitor both the mining company and the metals to keep an eye on any significant developments. For ETFs, you can look at the overall metal and the mining company with the most weight in the ETF. When buying ETFs, keep an eye on expense ratios and transaction fees, which eat into overall returns.
[319wards]

Source: Zacks.com
http://finance.zacks.com/invest-mining-stocks-6882.html

SouthGobi seeks funding to pay delayed $8.1m interest to China Investment
20TH NOVEMBER 2014| BY CREAMER MEDIA REPORTER



[Time 3]
TSX- and HKSE-listed coal producer SouthGobi Resources is delaying payment to the China Investment Corporation (CIC) of about $8.1-million in cash – the November 2014 installment of cash interest due on the secured convertible debenture it entered into with a wholly owned subsidiary of the CIC.

As of Thursday, SouthGobi, in which Turquoise Hill has a 56% shareholding, only had $4.9-million cash and continued to seek additional funding to meet its interest obligations under the CIC convertible debenture. Rio Tinto has a majority shareholding in Turquoise Hill, which took management control of SouthGobi in September 2012, making changes to the board and senior management.

SouthGobi was due to pay the installment on November 19, but the CIC had advised the company that it would extend the cash interest payment date to December 1.

“In the event the company fails to make the CIC convertible debenture interest installment on December 1, this would result in an event of default under the CIC convertible debenture and the CIC would have the right to declare the principal and accrued interest owing thereunder immediately due and payable, which could result in voluntary or involuntary proceedings involving SouthGobi,” the company explained.
[196wards]

[Time 4]
HISTORY OF AGREEMENT
In November 2009, SouthGobi entered into a financing agreement with a wholly owned subsidiary of the CIC for $500-million in the form of a secured, convertible debenture-bearing interest at 8% – 6.4% payable semiannually in cash and 1.6% payable annually in the company's shares – with a maximum term of 30 years. The CIC convertible debenture was secured by a charge over SouthGobi assets and certain subsidiaries.

On March 29, 2010, SouthGobi exercised its right to call for the conversion of up to $250-million of the CIC convertible debenture into about 21.5-million shares. The CIC currently owned about 16.5% of the issued and outstanding common shares of SouthGobi.

SouthGobi is focused on exploration and development of its metallurgical and thermal coal deposits in Mongolia's South Gobi region and has a 100% shareholding in SouthGobi Sands, a Mongolian registered company that holds the mining and exploration licenses in Mongolia and operates the company’s flagship Ovoot Tolgoi coal mine.
[158words]

Source: Miningweekly.com
http://www.miningweekly.com/article/southgobi-seeks-funding-to-pay-delayed-interest-payment-to-china-investment-corporation-2014-11-20

The best commodity mutual funds
By Jay Way, eHow Contributor

[Time 5]
Commodities are an important asset class and can be a viable investment alternative to stocks and bonds for investors looking for broader investment diversifications. But investing in commodities directly can be challenging for small, individual investors as participants in commodity markets traditionally are commodity producers, users, professional traders and speculators. Thus, commodity mutual funds provide an easy way for individual investors to gain commodity exposure. Commodity mutual funds come in different types and use different investment strategies. Depending on their preferred market exposure within particular markets, different investors may choose different types funds as their best commodity mutual funds. Have a question? Get an answer from a personal Investing in Commodities Investing in commodities helps diversify investors' risk exposure since commodities can be both an inflation hedge and a hedge against financial market declines in general. With inflation on the rise, prices of stocks and bonds are likely to decrease, as inflation increases both the costs of doing business and the interest rates of issuing debt. On the other hand, prices of commodities usually rise with inflation, directly benefiting commodity investors. Other times, commodity prices also have low correlations, if not completely negative, to prices of other financial markets. If stock prices are coming down, commodity prices don't always move in tandem, enabling investors with certain commodity exposure to make up stock losses with commodity gains.

Passive Commodity Funds

To benefit from commodities in general, some investors and certain commodity mutual funds prefer a passive investment strategy. This approach allows investments to be allocated among various commodities, including energy, metal and agriculture, based on the same weights used to compose a particular commodity index. For example, one of the best commodity mutual funds Oppenheimer Real Asset Fund follows the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index. The relative amounts of investments among different commodities remain unchanged without funds trying to predict potential moves in one commodity market or the other. Passive commodity mutual funds with a conservative investment approach are best suited for investors with relatively low levels of investment risk tolerance.
[339wards]

[Time 6]

Active Commodity Funds

Active commodity mutual funds aim to outperform their benchmark commodity indexes. Managers of active commodity mutual funds often seek more concentrated investment exposure to particular commodities based on changing economic and market conditions. A mutual fund company may have both passive and active commodity funds within its fund family to meet the needs of different investors. For example, Oppenheimer also offers the actively managed Oppenheimer Commodity Strategy Total Return Fund, which constantly buys and sells different commodity futures contracts. Active commodity mutual funds have higher potential risks but also the expectation of higher returns, which can be most appealing to risk-taking investors.

Commodity Stock Funds

Commodity mutual funds may invest directly in real commodities, such as certain gold mutual funds that actually hold gold bullion, or they can invest in commodity futures and profit from price changes in futures contracts, which is a more common type of commodity mutual funds. Commodity related mutual funds also include funds that invest exclusively in commodity stocks whose companies are in the commodity business and producers of different commodities from oil, natural gas, industrial and precious metal to various agricultural commodities. By not directly investing in commodities themselves, these commodity stock mutual funds may provide investors a level of safety buffer in the event of commodity declines. Companies as commodity producers often can better hedge the sales of their commodity productions ahead of market declines.
[234wards]

Resource:Ehow
http://www.ehow.com/info_8424160_commodity-mutual-funds.html

本帖子中包含更多资源

您需要 登录 才可以下载或查看,没有帐号?立即注册

x
 楼主| 发表于 2014-11-28 19:44:42 | 显示全部楼层
Part III: Obstacle

Goldman Declares The "End Of The Iron Age"
by Tyler Durden on 09/10/2014

[Paraphrase 7]

Back in the summer of 2008, when crude seemed poised to take out $150, Goldman decided to declare the start of a commodity supercycle and boosted its oil price forecast to $200. Shortly thereafter crude cratered, plunging to the low double digits, and causing many to scratch their heads whether Goldman was merely taking advantage of the pre-Lehman panic to sell into the euphoria. The same questions, but inverted, will likely follow today's just as seminal note, one which this time calls for the end of a super cycle, this time of iron, with "The end of the Iron Age."

While intuitively this makes sense considering iron ore prices have tumbled nearly 40% YTD and were at multi-year lows at last check with the demand picture going from bad to atrocious, the reality is that a protracted period of deflation in this key commodity will have very adverse implications for not only China, where CapEx amounts to over half of GDP and will likely force the transition to a consumer-driven economy - something the Politburo has been delaying for years - but for the rest of the commodity suppliers countries, with the most negative impact hitting Brazil and Australia. Worse, for a country like China which has thrived on commodity oversupply and overcapacity, the collapse in the equilibrium price driven largely by demand, will mean thousands of suppliers will be left out in the cold and forced to liquidate with massive ripple effects through the fabric of the Chinese economy.

To be sure, for the time being local governments, banks and other SOEs, and the central bank, have been successful in isolating the assorted pockets of deflation that has hammered China in the past several years, but if Goldman is correct and if indeed a iron (and other commodities) are shifting from the "Investment Phase" to the "Exploitation Phase" as Goldman calls it, then watch out below not only China, but the rest of the world as well.

So what exactly does Goldman say? Let's dig into their latest note:
The end of the Iron Age

Producers and investors have enjoyed a long period of supply tightness, cost inflation and above trend profitability; in our reports we have referred to this period as the Iron Age. In our view, 2014 is the inflection point where new production capacity finally catches up with demand growth, and profit margins begin their reversion to the historical mean; in other words, the end of the Iron Age is here.

Iron ore has entered a new exploitation phase

As we have previously argued, a period of overinvestment in production capacity has ended, giving way to an exploitation phase where supply growth comes mainly from more efficient utilization of existing capacity. Production volumes grow with a certain time lag behind the investment decision; the lag in the mining industry between investment approval and production at full capacity is typically between 5 and 10 years. Based on historical trends, we believe that many market dynamics are reversed in the shift from investment to exploitation, and the current exploitation phase in iron ore could last for a decade.

On the demand side, lower prices for iron ore and steel are unlikely to boost demand in a material way. Instead, the day when steel production in China will peak gets ever closer. In the past decade, the Chinese economy added steel to its economy at a rate three times faster than the US did during the 20th century. On a per capita basis, the average household in China is accumulating steel at a rate equivalent to the purchase of a new car every 8 months (without disposing of its older cars). In other words, the volume of steel stock in China is racing towards the US level of 13 tonnes per person. If China is to converge towards the US level, steel consumption will eventually have to stabilize and steel recycling will play a larger role.

On the supply side, the capital stock of the iron ore industry in Australia, Brazil and China increased by US$180 billion during the period 2003-12; this will fuel production growth for years to come. Now that the market has transitioned to an exploitation phase we expect new approvals for capital intensive projects to become increasingly rare, largely because the economics of greenfield projects will be challenging in an oversupplied market. However, projects approved in the later stages of the investment phase will support production growth in the years ahead, and low cost brownfield expansions at Tier 1 producers will remain attractive.

Can prices recover once marginal supply is gone? We don’t think so

In principle, the displacement of marginal producers should eventually lead to a balanced market with a high level of concentration among the top 4 miners, raising the prospect of a price recovery further down the road. In practice, we believe that market fundamentals will continue to see supply growth outpacing demand growth by a ratio of 3 to 1 over our forecast period. Not only is the growth pipeline set to deliver several large projects over our forecast period (Minas Rio, Roy Hill, Serra Sul as well as large expansions at Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton), but the supply side will also have many idled mines waiting on the sidelines and ready to resume production should prices recover.

Moreover, iron ore markets went through a 20-year period of declining prices in real terms during the previous exploitation phase that ended in 2004. The iron ore price in 2003 was the same as in 1983 in nominal terms; this is equivalent to an annual deflation rate of 3% in real terms . In our view, iron ore prices will display a similar trend of cost deflation in the current exploitation phase.

Cost curves become flatter via the loss of marginal supply and they shift downwards via rising productivity and weaker commodity currencies. Commodity currencies have started to depreciate relative to the US dollar; the weighted average across five of the largest seaborne exporters has lost 16% since January 2011. Given that a majority of production costs are denominated in local currency, this has a direct impact on the level of marginal production costs. On the productivity front, the increased focus on efficiency and the ramp-up of production has already resulted in a modest decline in unit costs among some producers; we expect this trend to continue.
[1066 words]

[The rest]
Many moving parts but China remains the key question

The veil on Chinese iron ore production and the level of cost support it would provide to seaborne prices was supposed to be lifted as the market moved into surplus during 2014. But instead of a clear answer, recent data from China only raise further questions regarding the scale of the supply response low prices. In the seaborne market, the delivery of new projects in Australia and Brazil more than offsets the closure of marginal producers. Meanwhile, slower growth in low grade ore supply should see grade discounts normalize.

Chinese riddle: making sense of production statistics

The Chinese iron ore sector is highly fragmented and the data on supply trends is rather limited, but official statistics on price and volume have been roughly consistent in the past: high domestic prices coincided with growth in raw ore production, while market corrections in 2H 2012 triggered production cuts among marginal miners. On that basis, the recent decline in domestic concentrate prices should have led to another deceleration or even contraction in raw ore volumes. Instead, NBS statistics suggest that volume growth has accelerated. We find this highly counterintuitive. First, media reports from Platts and other sources indicate that many small mines stopped production from Q2 2014 onwards. Second, a rising volume of domestic ore would be inconsistent with the reported statistics on steel production and iron ore imports which show high growth in Fe supply but low growth in Fe consumption.

What does this all mean? We consider the following hypotheses:

Official statistics do not reflect actual iron ore production. Provincial governments may set GDP or tax revenue targets at the start of the year, and set iron ore production estimates accordingly.  Official statistics only capture some production. The smallest miners may slip through the cracks if they fall below the threshold used in data collection, preventing the closure of small private mines from appearing in official statistics. Production can cut at the concentrator rather than the mine. Mines may choose to suspend sales to concentrators but continue to operate in order to minimize disruption to their operations.

In our view, a combination of these factors could be responsible for the muddied picture, forcing us to look for alternative ways to assess current trends in Chinese iron ore supply. On option is to calculate the implied production of iron ore from statistics on crude steel production and iron ore imports. Taking into account the changes in iron ore inventory and the modest variations in the grade of imported ore, this analysis suggests that Chinese iron ore production on a 62% Fe basis grew during Q1 (partly reflecting limited disruption from a mild winter) before contracting in the following quarter; implied production in the year to July is down 11% . Importantly, the timing of this contraction coincides neatly with the decline in the price of cosmetic concentrate in Hebei.

Industry sources also suggest that some Chinese supply has been displaced. The MySteel survey shows that utilization rates began to drop in May 2014 when the domestic price of concentrate was heading towards Rmb900/t, with the smallest mines reporting the lowest rates of utilization. Meanwhile, the consensus view at a recent conference on Chinese iron ore was that many private mines had indeed closed, even if the aggregate impact on production was limited
due to their small size. However, producers also indicated that efforts to expand domestic production are ongoing, as implied by the volume of investment in the sector.

Given this wide range of sometimes conflicting indicators, we assume that future Chinese iron ore production would remain roughly stable before mine closures, as new projects and depletion at existing mines offset each other. We continue to assume that the average grade mined in China will remain stable at c. 20% Fe based on a) the reported grade of new projects and b) the fact that closures are likely to affect mines with below-average grades the most. After factoring in mine closures, we forecast domestic production to decline by c.9% per year on a Fe adjusted basis.

Over our forecast period, we expect input cost inflation to moderate as labor markets loosen and suppliers (from consumables to rail and port operators) see margin compression. The depreciation of key currencies including the A$ and the Brazilian real is likely to continue as weaker commodity prices weigh on the local economy. Finally, just as mining productivity began to improve among metallurgical coal producers during 2013, we now expect a similar type of improvement in the iron ore sector. On balance, we apply a 3% rate of annual deflation in real terms to derive our price forecasts for 2016-17 from our starting point of US$80/t in 2015.
[797 words]

Source: Zero Hedge         
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-09-10/goldman-declares-end-iron-age

本帖子中包含更多资源

您需要 登录 才可以下载或查看,没有帐号?立即注册

x
发表于 2014-11-28 22:41:40 | 显示全部楼层
Speed
2. 2'10'' The investment in mining stocks are mainly divided into three steps: Use ETFs, keep an eye on metal price and monitor the significant development with ETFs.
3.1'30'' SouthGobi had to delay to pay its interest to China and if it fail to pay off by December 1, it may pay price of involuntary proceedings.
4.1'10s The original agreement SouthGobi came to with CIC is borrow XXX at an interest rate of XXX... and the main sectors SouthGobi involved in are mining, sand...
5.3'15''The commodity mutual fund is a good choice for individual investors to avoid risk, and passive commodity mutual funds which show conservative approach in investment are suited investors who dislike investment risk.
6.1'30''Active commodity funds are with higher potential risk and return. And companies usually have different feature funds to meet the need of investors.
发表于 2014-11-28 22:42:17 | 显示全部楼层
Obstacle
1.The phase of ore investing is ended and the exploition phase has come for the supply of metal is several times more than its demand.
2.The supply is continue to accumulating especially in China, and the demand tend to decrease. The balance of them two makes the price decrease and will not recover when marginal supply was gone.
发表于 2014-11-28 23:02:49 | 显示全部楼层
掌管 6        00:13:42.86        00:23:20.32
掌管 5        00:01:25.78        00:09:37.45
掌管 4        00:03:04.06        00:08:11.67
掌管 3        00:01:10.17        00:05:07.60
掌管 2        00:01:57.19        00:03:57.42
掌管 1        00:02:00.23        00:02:00.23


看得好晕。。。好多词感觉都懂,放在一起就不知道它们的意思了还是要好好背单词,尤其要掌握它们在商业领域的意思。
依旧是在计时时间内看懂了大意,但是逻辑关系理不清楚,也写不下来回忆。

http://www.commoditymutualfund.net/
提供个commodity mutual fund的拓展阅读~
发表于 2014-11-28 23:16:32 | 显示全部楼层
02'47
01'43
01'36
03'12
02'08
发表于 2014-11-29 07:49:51 | 显示全部楼层
[Speaker]
Major banks are claimed to manipulate stock prices by accumulating huge shares of commodities and fail to allocate enough capital to cover losses in extreme scenarios. But the banks defended that their activities have little impact on the stock prices.

[Speed]
[Time 2] 1:45
How to invest in mining stock:
list mining companies
Observe the trend of stock price movements along with metal price changes.
Buy stocks but always keep an eye on both mining companies and metal.
[Time 3] 1:03
CIC was delayed to pay CIC interests of about $8.1 million, and CIC obtains the right to declare the principal and accrued interest if CIC defaults.
[Time 4] 0:50
The historical agreement between SouthGobi and a wholly owned subsidiary of the CIC.
[Time 5] 2:13
Commodity mutual funds are valuable additions to investors’ investment portfolios to achieve diversification as their prices increase with the rise of inflation and have little correlation to prices of other financial markets.
Passive commodity funds are suitable for investors with low level of risk tolerance.
[Time 6] 1:40
Passive commodity funds are risky but also produce higher return.
Commodity Stock Funds invest directly in real commodities and act like a safety buffer in the event of commodity decline.
发表于 2014-11-29 09:44:37 | 显示全部楼层
Thanks for sharing!
[Time 2] 01:53
3 steps to invest in mining stock: get to know the market with the use of ETF-> observe the prove->invest and keep eye on how the company distribute the revenue
[Time 3] 01:03
SC failed to pay the debt on time
[Time 4] 00:56
The history of the agreement and simple introduction of SG.
[Time 5] 02:32
Commodity fund is suitable for individual investor. Types of commodity fund depends on its explore to market.The CF is relatively stable during the economic fluctuation;
PCF: invest in several commodity; conservative.
[Time 6] 01:23
ACF: most risking
CSF: investment in real commodity and commodity company. It's safe, as company gets to know the market change in advance.
[Obstacle] 07:00
"The end of the Iron" means that the iron supply meets the iron demand, and the iron price will fall. That's what happens in China, iron consuming countries and Brazil, Australia and other iron producing countries.
Even if later the supply decrease, the iron price won't rise in short term.
发表于 2014-11-29 10:35:35 | 显示全部楼层
speed
2'27
2'05
1'23
2'53
1'37
obstacle
7'40  
每次问题都出在障碍阅读这儿,大部分读懂了 大意掌握了,但是有几个单词不太明白所以也有些句子不知所云,但是猴哥说泛读就在于观其大略 但是。。。。整片读完我都不记得说过些什么最后写的回忆就是
crude oil price is rise to 150, and epect to 200  Goldman said that this will continue. But.....(忘了说了些什么trend) some people think Goldman forget something so that his predict is wrong.

the oil market will change into demand-driven market

china, Brazil and Austrial are the most oil production country

analysis the sentence that is said by Goldman
        what' s the Iron Age?
        will the age real end?
(这两段具体探讨了什么还给忘了-----)
然后回读文章发现有些回忆可能还是错!的!
您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 立即注册

Mark一下! 看一下! 顶楼主! 感谢分享! 快速回复:

手机版|ChaseDream|GMT+8, 2024-3-28 17:36
京公网安备11010202008513号 京ICP证101109号 京ICP备12012021号

ChaseDream 论坛

© 2003-2023 ChaseDream.com. All Rights Reserved.

返回顶部