【Native Speaker每日综合训练—42系列】【42-19】经管

wensd1111

内容：neverland1021 编辑：wensd1111

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本期的内容以mortgage为主，Speaker说的是米国的房贷新政，speed重点在我大天朝，而Obstacle说的是英国的房贷。
住房按揭贷款可能是身在天朝的小伙伴们现在或者以后不得不面对的一个问题，国庆之前央行宣布放松对首套房的认定标准，正式给房贷松绑，但这项措施究竟会对房地产市场甚至中国的经济产生多大的影响？
不啰嗦了，大家enjoy~

Part I: Speaker

New 15-Year Mortgage May Open Homeownership Door For More Buyers

Source:
http://www.npr.org/2014/10/03/353521437/new-15-year-mortgage-may-open-homeownership-door-for-more-buyers

[Rephrase 1, 04:37]

wensd1111

Part II: Speed

Is the Chinese property market wobbling towards collapse?
By Chris Newlands | October 6, 2014

[Time 2]
It is overbuilt, it is overpriced and it is overleveraged – is the Chinese property market wobbling towards collapse?

Numbers that were once impressive, such as the perhaps now well-worn fact that in 2011 and 2012 China produced more cement than the US did during the entire 20th century, have since dropped.

The latest figures remain striking, although now for the wrong reasons. In July, house prices fell in 64 of the 70 Chinese cities surveyed by the National Bureau of Statistics, the biggest monthly decline since records began in 2005.

Once a picture of health, the Chinese property market is now looking off-colour with construction activity cooling, land sales slowing, apartment sales sliding and unsold inventory rising. Meanwhile, access to finance is tightening.

If all of the above were happening somewhere else in the world it would still be worrying. Given it is taking place in the world’s second-largest economy makes it all the more alarming: some view China’s spluttering property market as the biggest threat to the global economy. But fears of an imminent collapse similar to that in the US after the subprime crisis are also overblown, say many. “It is not a long-term problem,” says Lan Shen, an economist at Standard Chartered Bank in Beijing.

The sense is that lending conditions for mortgage loans in China are too tight to cause any great concerns. The mandatory down payment ratio for most mortgage loans is between 30 and 40 per cent, even for first-time buyers. Down payments for second homes jump to 60-70 per cent.

As a result, those fearing that a steep fall in house prices might drown banks in bad debt could be overstating the issue. “The slowdown is less severe than the international media has portrayed,” says Ben Luk, global market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management. This year’s dip has been on everyone’s radar screen, he adds, “but strong household balance sheets and strict mortgage conditions will prevent the sector from derailing the overall economy”.

The International Monetary Fund agrees. In a paper published in April, it ranked China as having the fourth-lowest level of household debt among 11 Asian countries, at some 12 per cent of its gross domestic product. In New Zealand and Australia, debt levels exceed 90 per cent.
[377words]

[Time 3]
But concerns persist. Housing projects continue to lie empty and China’s much-reported and much-hyped “ghost towns“ continue to spook. The belief was that urbanisation would generate sufficient demand to fill the vast apartment blocks being built.

However, the problem has stemmed from the evident mismatch between supply and demand. Massive construction has taken place in second- and third-tier cities where urbanisation was never strong, while building in larger cities has catered for middle-to-high earners, leaving the many low-income households little option but to look on as construction took place. “The increase in house prices has created a huge wealth gap. It is up to the government to match demand and supply dynamics over the longer term,” says Luk.

The consensus is the government is ready to do that. An acceleration in the construction of social housing and a reduction in approval procedures has already taken place. More must be done, however. And what of the implications for the global property market? Knight Frank, the property consultancy, predicts that Chinese money flowing into international property will double before the year is out, with the number of deals originating from China expected to reach their highest levels since 2007.

Will that trend be derailed by issues at home? Russell Platt, chief executive of Forum Partners, a global property investment firm, thinks not. “I would contend that the biggest risk facing the global property market is not China but uncertainty surrounding the extent to which quantitative easing has created abnormally low property yields.”

The local property market is largely funded by Chinese savers and banks, he adds, and the impact of falling prices will “play out in a market that is still largely insulated from the rest of the world”.
[287 words]

Source:Finance Times
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/dfd0d4fc-4895-11e4-9d04-00144feab7de.html#ixzz3FMvksc7G

Double trouble - China property launches to deepen inventory overhang, price declines
Reuters | August 28, 2014, 9:18 am

[Time 4]
HONG KONG (Reuters) - Property launches in China are set to surge in the latter half of the year with developers sticking to their schedules despite mounting inventories, spelling double trouble for a market hammered by months of falling prices.

Prices started to decline in March as the slowing economy hit demand, inventories ballooned and developers began offering discounts. The current slump was confirmed by official data only around the middle of the year, way after developers had already committed themselves to completing projects for 2014.

Developers also have little choice but to heap even more supply in a bloated market due to regulations that stop them from sitting on undeveloped land. Those that fail to break ground on new projects a year after purchasing land will face fines, while those that wait more than two years could have their land confiscated.

The rush to expedite projects will worsen chronic oversupply that analysts warn may take years to clear. Unsold properties will also have broader implications - the sector accounts for over 15 percent of the economy and its fortunes are tied to other industries such as concrete and steel.

Earlier this month, Kaisa Group <1638.HK> and China Merchants Land <0978.HK> confirmed that they planned to launch around 70 percent of their 2014 projects in the second half. Country Garden <2007.HK> said it aimed to meet 60 percent of its sales target during the period.

Price cuts and promotions are the most common methods that developers use to clear inventory. But tight mortgage credit lines from banks and discrepancies in price expectations between developers and home buyers are not helping, analysts say.

"Buyers' attitude has changed. They feel they can wait," said CIFI Holdings <0884.HK> Chief Financial Officer Albert Yau.
[290 words]

[Time 5]
China's once white-hot housing market is slowing this year, weighed by the cooling economy and the government's five-year-long campaign to curb price rises. New home prices fell in July for a third consecutive month, with declines spreading to a record number of big cities including Beijing.

So far, only a handful of small developers such as China Overseas Grand Oceans <0081.HK> and Jingrui Holding <1862.HK> have issued profit warnings. Analysts see little prospect for improvement in the short term.

"The outlook for the next three to five years is not favourable," said Rosealea Yao, a Beijing-based analyst at Gavekal Dragonomics. "If sales are not recovering and inventory is not coming down fast enough, companies will have no choice but to cut their new starts construction."

Some developers such as Longfor, Greentown China <3900.HK> and Fantasia Holdings <1777.HK> have said they would slow construction according to market conditions.

Big-name developers Longfor Properties <0960.HK> and China Vanke <000002.SZ> said this month that 80 percent and 70 percent of their planned projects for 2014 were scheduled to be completed in the second half, respectively.
[181 words]

[Time 6]
Inventories rose 8.4 percent as of the end of July from March, when the industry correction started to gain traction, according to Reuters calculations based on data from China Real Estate Information Corp (CRIC). The Shanghai-based research firm tracks 28 mostly first and second-tier cities.

Of the 28 cities, inventories in 18 cities will take more than one year to clear, and among them two would require over two years, the research company said.

Shenyang city in northeast Liaoning province has the worst excess supply, with 34.6 months of inventory supply, CRIC said.

China Overseas Land & Investment <0688.HK>, Country Garden <2007.HK>, Evergrande Real Estate <3333.HK>, Longfor Properties, Beijing Capital Land <2868.HK> and Gemdale Corp <600383.SS> all have projects in the city.

"The board believes that with the peak of sales in the coming second half of 2014, the general situation of excessive housing supply is expected to continue," said Evergrande, China's third-largest developer.

Qingdao was the second-worst city in terms of oversupply, with CRIC estimating it would take 26.7 months to clear inventories. It forecast it would take around 23 months to clear excess supply in Ningbo, Fuzhou, Wuxi and Zhongshan.

Among the four top-tier cities, the overhang for Beijing and Shenzhen stands at 19.8 months and 20.4 months, respectively, up 129 percent and 122 percent from a year earlier.

"Our industry has been spoiled. Why does it expect inventory to appreciate after sitting there for one, two years? If it's a piece of electronics it will become very cheap," said Yu Liang, president of China Vanke, the country's largest residential developer.

"Cashflow is very important. If you cut price and get cash back, you may still be able to buy new land quickly and do well with your business."

Some developers, such as Evergrande, Greentown and Kaisa, are shifting projects to first-tier cities where demand is stronger, while state-backed developer China Merchants Land said it is helping customers to get mortgage quotas from banks to speed up the application process.

China Vanke said it is also working on enlarging its customer base by selling its projects directly on the Internet.

"We have to adapt to the new demand. We can't sit here and wait for customers like we used to anymore. We have to proactively look for customers," President Yu said.
[383 words]

Source:Yahoo
https://nz.news.yahoo.com/a/-/world/24833665/double-trouble-china-property-launches-to-deepen-inventory-overhang-price-declines/

wensd1111

Part III: Obstacle

Managing Housing-Market Risks in the United Kingdom

iMF direct | July 28th, 2014

[Paraphrase 7]
House prices are rising rapidly in the UK at an annual rate of 10.5 percent. House price inflation is particularly high in London (20 percent per year), and it is gradually accelerating in the rest of the country. The recent increases in house prices have been getting a lot of attention, and understandably have raised questions about living standards and whether another “boom-bust” cycle has begun.

The current UK housing cycle raises two important questions. What is driving the rise in house prices? And how should macroeconomic policies respond?

Macroeconomic policies should tackle two crucial issues in the housing market: (i) mitigating systemic financial risks during upswings in house prices and leverage; and (ii) encouraging an adequate supply of housing in order to safeguard affordability. In this blog, we discuss how the UK authorities are addressing these two issues and what additional policies may be necessary to manage risks from the housing market.

The current UK Housing Cycle

Historically, episodes of high house price inflation in the UK have been associated with a rapid expansion of incomes and mortgage credit. But the current housing cycle is notably different from the past episodes: aggregate mortgage credit growth has been relatively weak (only 1 percent over the past year), as has gross disposable income (0.5 percent growth in 2013), yet, in spite of this, house prices have been steadily increasing.

Accelerating prices explain in large part by a structural undersupply of housing in areas where demand is high, compounded by pent-up demand as credit conditions ease and consumer confidence returns.

Perhaps because of expectations of further house price increases and a desire to get on the housing ladder, some households are taking larger loans relative to their incomes. The increase in the number of high loan-to-income (LTI) mortgages is more pronounced in London and among first-time buyers. As a result, an increasing number of households are vulnerable to negative income and interest rate shocks.

Addressing financial risks from the housing market

The UK authorities have implemented several policies designed to mitigate potential risks from the housing market. First, they have strengthened banks’ buffers against housing market exposures by applying more stringent mortgage risk weights and by increasing the provisioning of forborne retail mortgages. Second, they have tightened underwriting standards, for example, by verifying the income of new borrowers. Third, they have refocused the Funding for Lending Scheme toward business, by making household lending no longer eligible for borrowing allowances.

More recently, the government has recommended a cap on mortgages with high loan-to-income ratios, addressing the problem of excessive household indebtedness in the financial system, while allowing lenders to have the flexibility to allocate the risk of their mortgage portfolios.

The 2014 UK Article IV Staff Report analyzes recent experiences of such “macroprudential” measures in advanced economies, and suggests that that caps on debt-to-income (DTI) and on loan-to-value (LTV) ratios are potent tools to dampen mortgage credit growth and to mitigate financial stability risks. The effectiveness of these tools is enhanced when they are used simultaneously with additional macroprudential measures. Countries tend to implement macroprudential policies gradually, possibly as a result of the uncertainty of the transmission mechanism of those policies.loan

However, if these policy measures prove to be insufficient, then the Bank of England might want to consider an interest rate hike to tighten financial conditions. This would certainly have an effect, but the decision would require weighing the immediate costs in terms of growth and employment against the effects of an increase in financial risks associated with the housing market.

Addressing structural problems of housing supply

The recent trends in house prices ultimately reflect an imbalance between demand and supply. While the demand for housing—measured by the volume of transactions— has recovered to pre-crisis levels, housing supply—measured by housing completions per capita—is lagging. Micro- and macro-prudential policies will only be able to affect the demand for housing, but will not influence the supply for housing and consequently its affordability in the medium and long term.

Recent reforms in the planning system are contributing to a gradual increase in house building from recession lows, but more is needed to remove the unnecessary constraints and regulations on development. Further reforms to the tax system could encourage a more efficient use of land and provide economic incentives to local councils to grant more building permits, for instance by better linking local fiscal revenues with the development of local projects. It is also crucial to further develop the private rental market sector in the UK, which currently accounts for approximately 16.5 percent of households.

Ensuring long-run affordability and addressing financial stability risks requires understanding the nature of the problem—and what can reasonably be expected from different policies. The financial authorities are concerned about the potential for financial risks and have employed new measures to control them. But, notwithstanding recent changes to planning laws, more will likely be needed on the supply side. Ultimately this will require political and social consensus to allow more houses to be built where they are needed.
[840 words]
Source:Economonitor
http://www.economonitor.com/blog/2014/07/managing-housing-market-risks-in-the-united-kingdom/

wensd1111

这样对么？发帖

AXIXI

[Time2--2:52 ] Chinese houseprices decline and influenced the global economy. The most crucial reason isthat mortgage loans are too high to lead a excessive debt levels.

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[Time3--2:29 ] There is aserious problem for unbalance between supply and demand.

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[Time4--2:25 ] The propertymarket situation in Hongkong is also faced to falling prices and effects therelative industry.

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[Time5--1:17 ] The propertymarket in the next three to five years is not optimistic, even though a handfulof small developers profit in the sort term.

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[Time6--2:22 ] The excessivesupply causes the increasing rates of inventories such as in Shenyang andQingdao.  To guarantee the security cashflow, some developers are shifting projects to first-tier cities.

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[Obstacle--6:19] House pricesin UK are steadily rising because the demand surpasses the supply and consumerconfidence returns. Then, the UK government have implemented several policiesto prevent the potential risks in the property market.

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cherry6891

42-19
time2
China has built many houses in recent year.
To stop people invest or own more than one house ,Chinese government increase the down payment of second house to 70% of total house price
Time3
Ghost town continue to spook because of the mismatch of demand and supply.
Urbanization would generate sufficient demand of the buildings
Time4
House price began to decline since this March.
Developers have little choice but provide more supply since the regulation stop them from sitting on undeveloped land
Buys' attitude changed
Time5
White hot housing market is slow this year.
The outlook of the next 3-5 years is not favorable
Time6
Inventories in 18 cities take more than one year to clear. Shenyang and qingdao has the worst and worse situation

Obstacle
What drives the increase of the house price? Expansion income and mortgage credit
How could macroeconomics response? Balance the supply and demand

ZOEYZHANG114

Good articles, Good news and Good analysis.Thank you for posting.

wangyilin

占个位！~小的去去就来！~

sufangfang27

10.10'
Speed
time2.3
02.28.51
01.53.82
153w/m
The house price in China is falling,however,it's far away from collapse.

time4.5.6
01.51.07
01.14.00
02.27.56
155w/m
"inventory in China rises while the price declines,causing much pressure on developers.
Companies are finding way out by cutting prices,seeking customers and clearing inventories for cash."

Obstacles
05.22.84
155w/m
"House prices are rising so quickly in London while the growth of income and mortagage credit are slow.
Authorities tried to ease the problem in two ways,but only focus on buyers,the supply is still a big problem."

影魔摇大…

Time2:2′38″
Time3:2′11″
Time4:2′06″
Time5:1′24″
Time6:3′05″
Obstacle:7′50″