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发表于 2014-8-8 22:34:12
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Part II: Speed
America’s lost oomph
Jul 19th 2014 | From the print edition
The country’s potential growth rate is barely half what it was two decades ago. Here’s how to raise it
[Time 2]
BACK in the mid-1990s, America’s economic prospects suddenly brightened. Productivity soared. Immigrants and foreign capital flocked to take advantage of what was quickly dubbed the “New Economy”. The jobless rate fell to 4%, yet inflation remained low. All this led economists to conclude that America’s potential rate of growth—the speed at which the economy can expand while keeping unemployment steady and inflation stable—had risen sharply from its decades-long average of 3%, to 3.5% or even higher.
Sadly, the New Economy is no more. The recovery from the recession of 2008-09 has been the weakest of the post-war era, and evidence is mounting that America’s potential growth rate has plummeted. Its two big determinants, the supply of workers and the rise in their productivity, have both fallen short. Performance in the past year has been particularly feeble: America’s labour force has not grown at all and output per hour worked has fallen. The IMF recently cut its estimate of the country’s potential rate of growth to 2%. Other economists put it as low as 1.75% (see article).
So far, the slide in potential has had little practical impact. Because the recession was so deep and the recovery so weak, the economy is still operating below its capacity. But in the long term a halving of the economic speed limit would have grim consequences. Living standards would rise more slowly, tax revenues would be lower and the burden of paying today’s debts heavier.
Solving the short-term problem means boosting demand, so the Federal Reserve should keep interest rates low. But to pep up long-term growth, America also needs to address the supply side. In particular, it needs more workers and faster increases in productivity.
[284 words]
[Time 3]
The not-so-mysterious case of the disappearing worker
The number of working-age Americans rose by an average of 1.2% a year in the 1990s, and by a mere 0.4% in 2013. The proportion of them actually in the workforce has fallen from over 67% to less than 63%. The recession is partly to blame, because after years of joblessness some people have given up looking for work. That is one reason why boosting the recovery is important. The ageing of the baby-boomers is another reason. The number of people in their late 50s (when participation in the workforce starts to drop) and older is rising fast.
Both these vulnerabilities are exacerbated by a self-inflicted problem: policies that depress the supply of workers. Most damaging is America’s broken immigration system. Getting into the country has become much more difficult. The number of visas issued today for highly skilled people is a fraction of what it was in the 1990s, even as the number of unfilled vacancies for skilled workers soars. Deportations have surged and the southern border has become far harder to cross.
Obamacare, though good in other respects, tends to shrink the labour force because it helps people get health care without working. There is less to be said for the outdated social safety net, which manages both to be stingy and to discourage work. America spends a smaller proportion of its GDP than other rich countries on retraining the jobless and helping them find work. It has not raised the retirement age and it has allowed its disability-insurance system to become an ersatz welfare scheme. The number of workers on disability, hardly any of whom will work again, has doubled since 1997 to 9m. For once, Europe could teach America some labour-market lessons: thanks to welfare reforms, the proportion of Europeans in the workforce is now rising.
[307 words]
[Time 4]
The mystery of the slump in productivity
In the long run, the most powerful way to boost growth is for workers to become more productive, as they did in the 1990s. But raising productivity is hard, and the recent slump puzzling. Innovation drives productivity growth, and a dizzying array of new developments, from “big data” to the “internet of things”, suggests that innovation is speeding up. Yet the growth in the average worker’s output per hour was slowing before the 2007 crisis and has fallen further since.
That may change, because it takes a while for firms to react to disruptive technologies. Computers started to spread in the 1980s but their impact did not show up in the data for more than a decade. The latest surge in innovation will also take a few years to translate into higher output per hour. The slow recovery from the recession may have lengthened this delay, by deterring many firms from investing in information technology. But here, too, politicians have made matters worse.
There is much America’s government could do to boost investment. It could, for instance, increase public spending on infrastructure. It could reduce the sky-high corporate tax rate which encourages firms—such as AbbVie, which is proposing to shift its base to Britain by buying Shire (see article)—to move abroad rather than invest at home. And it could start cutting the endless sprawl of job-destroying regulations that companies say is a worse problem even than taxes. It is doing none of these things.
The impact of a supply-side revolution, with immigration reform, an overhaul of disability and training schemes, infrastructure investment, deregulation and corporate-tax reform all high on the agenda would be gradual. But even the prospect would strengthen the recovery, by encouraging investment and deterring the Fed from raising interest rates too soon.
Thoughtful politicians have produced schemes for radical change in almost all of these areas, but their plans—like so much else—have fallen victim to America’s polarised politics. The Republicans stand in the way of loosening immigration rules, while Democrats fear that supply-side reforms are a plot to hurt the average Joe. Both sides hoover up cash from special interests keen to keep anticompetitive regulations in place. Barack Obama, the least business-friendly president for decades, has devoted far too little attention to the problem. So the odds rise that America’s economy will continue to lumber along at an underwhelming pace, and Americans will have no one to blame but their leaders.
[415 words]
Source: The Economist
http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21607809-countrys-potential-growth-rate-barely-half-what-it-was-two-decades-ago-heres-how-raise
No more grand bargains
Aug 9th 2014 | From the print edition
The World Trade Organisation’s whole approach to negotiating free trade needs radical change
[Time 5]
THERE is a fine line between laudable perseverance and a stubborn refusal to admit that change is needed. Those running the World Trade Organisation (WTO) risk falling into the latter category. On July 31st an agreement to lubricate trade by streamlining customs rules worldwide collapsed. Narendra Modi, India’s new prime minister, refused to sign the deal, painstakingly thrashed out in Bali last year, because the WTO would not change its rules to let him expand food subsidies. The spat raises a new question-mark over Mr Modi: sound economics was the most respectable bit of his chequered CV. But it also shows that the WTO needs radical reform to survive.
India is hardly the only protectionist when it comes to agriculture. Rich countries are the worst culprits. Japan’s tariffs—778% on rice and 328% on sugar—aim to block trade completely, insulating its small and inefficient producers from competition. The European Union’s common agricultural policy soaks up 40% of its budget. But Mr Modi has run away from reform. India’s food subsidies are massive, costing around 1% of GDP. They lead to huge stockpiles of unwanted, rotting produce, and fan pervasive corruption (see article). Giving poor families cash or food stamps would be better at helping the neediest while minimising waste—as Brazil, for example, has demonstrated. That is permitted under WTO rules. Mr Modi should be working to change the subsidy regime instead of scuppering a deal that would have benefited India.
So blame Mr Modi. But it was the job of Roberto Azevêdo, the WTO’s director-general, to iron out such differences between members. Indian dissatisfaction with the WTO rules was allowed to build until it broke the Bali agreement—just as has happened before with other developing countries, even though the new emerging powers have most to gain from the stagnant “Doha round” of trade-liberalisation talks.
The WTO’s troubles run deeper still. Its core belief in the value of global trade liberalisation is shared by this newspaper. But the way the WTO pursues this goal, by seeking grand bargains covering many industries, is not working. In theory it should promote dealmaking: Europe, say, will let in more South American farm produce in return for being able to sell more cars to South America. In practice, rioting French farmers don’t care whether Renault’s sales rise in Brazil. Attempts to strike comprehensive pacts have caused deadlock. The Doha talks have dragged on for almost 13 years. The last big trade round was concluded in 1994, before the WTO was created.
[419 words]
[Time 6]
Dead as a Doha As the WTO has stumbled on, year after year, a “spaghetti bowl” of regional and bilateral trade agreements has filled the gap. This tangle of treaties, often with mutually incompatible rules, makes global pacts ever harder to reach. It also makes the bit of the WTO that works best—mediating between countries in trade disputes—less relevant.
So Mr Azevêdo should ditch the all-encompassing deals to pursue a number of modest ones covering specific industries: seek a deal on cotton, for instance, not one lumping together various bits of farming with customs facilitation (as in the Bali proposal). He should aim to get each done in a matter of months. In each case, if consensus is not reached, a “coalition of the willing” should be allowed to sign up and start reaping the benefits. The foot-draggers would be allowed to join later.
This would cut gamesmanship of the sort Mr Modi has just displayed. It would be a drastic departure from the way the WTO has done business. But two decades of sustained failure is too long. Don’t let the best be the enemy of the good. Better to have some small trade deals than none at all.
[202 words]
Source: The Economist
http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21611064-world-trade-organisations-whole-approach-negotiating-free-trade-needs-radical-change-no |
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