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板凳
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发表于 2014-7-14 00:12:27
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Part III: Obstacle
A Final Prediction: Germany Wins a Thriller
By John Cassidy| July 13, 2014
[Paraphrase 7]
Like the Sex Pistols in their prime, World Cup finals rarely fail to disappoint. After all the buildup and hype, the games often turn out to be low-scoring, bad-tempered affairs. In 2010, Holland, the nation that, during the nineteen-seventies, invented “total football,” a free-flowing, attacking style of soccer that enchanted the world, disgraced itself by trying to kick the Spanish “tiki-taka” men off the park in Johannesburg, and almost succeeded. Four years earlier, during the latter stages of a tense 1-1 tie between Italy and France, Zinedine Zidane, the French midfield maestro, was sent off for headbutting an Italian player, Marco Materazzi, who had allegedly called his sister a whore. (Italy went on to win on penalties.)
The 1994 final, which was played in Pasadena, was another dud. After playing out a dull nil-nil tie, Brazil defeated Italy—a frequent participant in tedious finals—on penalties. But the worst final in living memory was probably the 1990 contest between West Germany (as it still would be for a few months) and Argentina, which was played in Rome. The Germans bored everybody rigid for eighty-odd minutes. Then they scored a disputed penalty. Argentina, led by a prematurely aged Diego Maradona, finished the game with nine men. As the Germans in the crowd celebrated their team’s third (and most recent) World Cup triumph, a BBC commentator famously remarked that the Germans had lifted the Cup but won few friends. (It hardly needs saying that neither that comment nor these were in any way influenced by West Germany’s defeat, in the semifinals, of England.)
Today’s climax to the 2014 World Cup, which will be held at Rio de Janeiro’s famous Maracanã Stadium, is a rematch of the dreadful 1990 contest, but it will surely be a better game. In fact, there are reasons to hope that it will be the exception that proves the rule: a truly thrilling finale to a tournament that started out magnificently, fizzled a bit in the later stages, but which, over all, has been a big success. (Unless you are a fan of Spain or Brazil, that is.)
Having recently lamented the dearth of goals in this tournament since the group stages, a trend not wholly negated by what Germany did to Brazil on Tuesday, I wouldn’t be entirely surprised to see another dull, low-scoring game. But there are reasons to hope for something better and more exciting.
For one thing, there is a historic precedent: every twenty years or so, we get a high-scoring final. In 1966, England beat Germany 4-2 at the old Wembley Stadium. (You knew I’d sneak that in somewhere.) The 1986 final, in Mexico City, was yet another Germany-Argentina showdown. On that occasion, though, the South American team, inspired by the young Maradona, who had enjoyed a wonderful tournament, ran out as the winners by three goals to two.
I’m not predicting that today’s final will produce five or six goals. With this German team, though, you can never be sure. As it demonstrated against Portugal during the group stages, and against Brazil in a stunning semifinal, the Germans counterattack at great pace and punish mistakes mercilessly. Although they lack an individual superstar, that sometimes works to their advantage. Inspired by the hard-working and athletic midfield of Schweinsteiger, Khedira, and Kroos, they play for each other unselfishly, and operate as a coherent unit. Once they get on top, they can pulverize virtually any opposition.
But as Ghana and, to a lesser extent, the United States showed, the Germans aren’t invincible. Their defense, while capable and well-organized, lacks a bit of pace, and can be vulnerable to nimble strikers who are capable of springing the offside trap. In Lionel Messi and Sergio Aguero, Argentina has at least two players who fit the bill. At this World Cup, though, neither has been at his peak. Aguero is playing with a hamstring injury, and Messi, who has four times been voted the world’s best player, has gone quiet for the past couple of games.
As Messi labored through an indifferent season at Barcelona, one theory was that he was saving himself for the World Cup. During the group stages, when he looked lively and scored four times, that seemed like a plausible argument. In the quarter-finals, and particularly in the semifinal against the Netherlands, though, he wasn’t much of a factor. "We didn’t see Messi," Louis van Gaal, Holland’s manager, commented after the semifinal, which saw Argentina go through on penalties.
Thus far, Argentina has concentrated on shutting down the opposition. Arguably, its best player has been Javier Mascherano, a defensive midfielder who also plays for Barcelona. But if Argentina is to defeat Germany, it will have to get Messi, its offensive talisman, more involved. That shouldn’t be impossible. If the game is level and Germany presses forward, as it usually does, it may leave some open spaces open at the back, which Messi can exploit. If, on the other hand, Germany gets an early lead, the Argentines, as a team, will be forced to come out of their defensive shell and provide him with more support and passing options. That’s when he’s at his best. Playing for a Barcelona team that normally monopolizes possession, he has shown the ability to be here, there, and everywhere.
In the interests of open football and excitement, I’m hoping that the Germans get an early goal. Even if they don’t, I think that they will ultimately prevail. (So do the bookmakers. Germany is the 4-6 favorite to win the trophy.) Ever since the tournament began, it has appeared to be the strongest team. But an early breakthrough could set up a real thriller, which is what the tournament needs, and deserves.
The Brazilians, for all their troubles on and off the field, have put on a great show. The stadiums were ready; the people were hospitable; the transport links mostly worked; and the national team, when the tournament was in danger of fizzling out, provided a sensational plot twist by imploding in full view of the world. On Saturday, in the playoff game for third place, it lost heavily again—three-nil, to Holland. Today’s game is the final act. Let’s hope it surprises everybody, in a good way.
[1039 words]
Source: The New Yorker
http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/johncassidy/2014/07/a-final-prediction-germany-wins-a-thriller.html |
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