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发表于 2014-5-15 23:16:13
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Part II: Speed
Decisions Don’t Start with Data
BY Nick Morgan | May 14, 2014
[Time 2]
I recently worked with an executive keen to persuade his colleagues that their company should drop a long-time vendor in favor of a new one. He knew that members of the executive team opposed the idea (in part because of their well-established relationships with the vendor) but he didn’t want to confront them directly, so he put together a PowerPoint presentation full of stats and charts showing the cost savings that might be achieved by the change.
He hoped the data would speak for itself.
But it didn’t.
The team stopped listening about a third of the way through the presentation. Why? It was good data. The executive was right. But, even in business meetings, numbers don’t ever speak for themselves.
To influence human decision making, you have to get to the place where decisions are really made — in the unconscious mind, where emotions rule, and data is mostly absent. Yes, even the most savvy executives begin to make choices this way. They get an intent, or a desire, or a want in their unconscious minds, then decide to pursue it and act on that decision. Only after that do they become consciously aware of what they’ve decided and start to justify it with rational argument. In fact, recent research from Carnegie-Mellon University indicates that our unconscious minds actually make better decisions when left alone to deal with complex issues.
[230 words]
[Time 3]
Data is helpful as supporting material, of course. But, because it spurs thinking in the conscious mind, it must be used with care. Effective persuasion starts not with numbers, but with stories that have emotional power because that’s the best way to tap into unconscious decision making. We decide to invest in a new company or business line not because the financial model shows it will succeed but because we’re drawn to the story told by the people pitching it. We buy goods and services because we believe the stories marketers build around them: “A diamond is forever” (De Beers), “Real Beauty” (Dove), “Think different” (Apple), “Just do it” (Nike). We take jobs not only for the pay and benefits but also for the self-advancement story we’re told, and tell ourselves, about working at the new place.
Sometimes we describe this as having a good “gut feeling.” What that really means is that we’ve already unconsciously decided to go forward, based on desire, and our conscious mind is seeking some rationale for that otherwise invisible decision.
I advised the executive to scrap his PowerPoint and tell a story about the opportunities for future growth with the new vendor, reframing and trumping the loyalty story the opposition camp was going to tell. And so, in his next attempt, rather than just presenting data, he told his colleagues that they should all be striving toward a new vision for the company, no longer held back by a tether to the past. He began with an alluring description of the future state — improved margins, a cooler, higher-tech product line, and excited customers — then asked his audience to move forward with him to reach that goal. It was a quest story, and it worked.
Good stories — with a few key facts woven in — are what attach emotions to your argument, prompt people into unconscious decision making, and ultimately move them to action.
[318 words]
Source: HBR Blog
http://blogs.hbr.org/2014/05/decisions-dont-start-with-data/
Another year of Losses for Sony and no Sign of Reprieve
BY Bruce Einhorn | May 14, 2014
[Time 4]
Sony (SNE) today said it expects to lose ¥50 billion ($490 million) in the current fiscal year, which ends in March 2015. Even though the Japanese electronics and entertainment giant has been struggling for years, today’s announcement comes as a surprise, since a Bloomberg-compiled average of 19 analyst estimates had Sony making a profit of ¥57.1 billion.
The last time Sony surprised investors with a downbeat assessment of its prospects was on May 1, when it spoiled the holiday mood by announcing that its loss for the 2013-14 fiscal year would be ¥130 billion, worse than the ¥110 billion loss it had forecast a few months earlier and much worse than the ¥30 billion profit it had forecast a few months before that.
The market took that announcement in stride as optimists argued that at least Sony was finally getting serious about the need to restructure: It’s a good thing Sony is getting out of PCs, for instance, a business in which Sony was never a leader or even a close follower. Yes, dumping the PC business is costly in the short term, which is why Sony’s earnings for 2013-14 took a hit, but the company eventually will be stronger.
A lot of additional money-losing businesses remain for Sony to dump, though. The company hasn’t made a profit on TVs in years, and with stiff competition from South Korea and China, exiting the TV business is probably vital to any Sony turnaround. In its futile attempt to remain a player in TVs, Sony has lost ¥790 billion over the last 10 years, the company revealed today.
[266 words]
[Time 5]
The problem is, even if Chief Executive Officer Kazuo Hirai accepts that there’s no hope for Sony in the TV business, getting rid of it will be expensive in the short term. As today’s surprise demonstrates, retreating from a money-losing business isn’t easy. “The high cost to exit PCs shows that it will be even harder for Sony to exit TVs,” Yasuo Nakane, an analyst at Deutsche Bank in Tokyo, told Bloomberg News. Sony is counting on the World Cup in Brazil to drive demand for its TVs, but Nakane says its expectations are “too bullish.”
Sony is now assured of losses whether it holds on to TVs or gets rid of them. “If Hirai were in the U.S., shareholders would call for his resignation,” Yasuaki Kogure, chief investment officer at Tokyo’s SBI Asset Management, told Bloomberg. “Hirai will say he needs time, but the market can’t wait.”
There was some good news amid today’s gloom. In China, The Amazing Spider-Man 2, the second installment in Sony’s reboot of the Spider Man franchise, was No. 1 at the box office, the official Xinhua news agency reported on Tuesday. The movie, which captured 60 percent of the box office in the world’s second-largest movie market, took in 286 million yuan ($45.9 million) last week, for a total of 349 million yuan since it opened on May 4.
Unfortunately for Hirai, Sony can’t count on Spidey to rescue its TV business.
[239 words]
Source: Bloomberg Business
http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-05-14/another-year-of-losses-for-sony-and-no-sign-of-reprieve#r=hpt-fs
What target-date fund investors are doing wrong?
By Althea Chang | May 15, 2014
[Time 6]
Target-date funds may seem simple enough: Retirement savers can take a set-it-and-forget-it approach with them, determining how much of their salaries to contribute and letting a fund manager adjust asset allocations over time based on a target retirement date.
But a majority of savers with money in target-date funds aren't using them correctly, according to Financial Engines, a firm that sifted through data on more than 700,000 workers with about $55 billion saved in 401(k) retirement plans.
"The idea is, you put all your money in one fund and you get a diversified 401(k) account. What we've seen though is a lot of folks start off on the right foot, and ultimately sort of spread their money out over time and as a result of that, see lower returns," said Financial Engines CEO Jeffrey Maggioncalda.
Savers should have at least 95 percent of their money in a target date fund, if they elect to invest in one at all, but fewer than 17 percent of people with money invested in them are adhering to this rule, Financial Engines found.
Target-date funds are intended to be used exclusively since they inherently control for risk and provide good diversification, according to the firm.
Those savers who are partially invested in target date funds only put 35 percent of their savings into those funds, Financial Engines found.
[224 words]
Source: Yahoo Finance
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/big-data-download/what-target-date-fund-investors-are-doing-wrong-132610026.html |
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