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[阅读小分队] 【Native Speaker每日综合训练—36系列】【36-07】经管 RE Property Slump

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发表于 2014-5-8 23:27:29 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
内容:AceJ   编辑:AceJ

Stay tuned to our latest post! Follow us here ---> http://weibo.com/u/3476904471

我们始终坚信,每一次阅读,都应是一次美妙的旅程
而工作组的使命就是带领大家领略阅读中的极致美景

补充:发现大家对房地产这个话题都蛮感兴趣的,我最近读到过一本书《货币的逻辑》(庞忠甲,陈思进著),其中有一段专门从M2市场角度分析论述了中国房价为什么升的这么快,是我看到过比较靠谱和有数据支撑的论述,建议有兴趣的同学可以看一看

Part I: Speaker


How to schedule time for meaningful work

Source: HBR Ideacast
http://blogs.hbr.org/2013/08/how-to-schedule-time-for-meani/

For transcript, you can directly click hyperlink above, or you can download word document here


[Rephrase 1, 16:03]

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 楼主| 发表于 2014-5-8 23:27:30 | 显示全部楼层
Part III: Obstacle


Is China the next real estate bubble?
By Cesar Chelala | Mar 2, 2014

[Paraphrase 7]
Real estate in China has experienced a remarkable expansion in recent years. This development, however, has not gone parallel with the demand for real estate. If the situation reaches a crisis point, the consequences will be serious for the Chinese economy and for the world economy as well.

The real estate bubble in China affects mainly residential real estate. It reached its most rapid expansion between 2005 and 2009, when average housing prices tripled, because of government policies encouraging real estate purchases through increased bank lending at low interest rates. This is a policy that had begun in 2003 under Wen Jiabao.

In addition, since social welfare and pension systems are not as advanced in China as in more developed countries, people feel safer buying real estate. Men seeking a wife also think their chances are greater if they own a piece of real estate. In China, most people consider home ownership a necessity, not a luxury.

This upward trend in prices continued for several years and started to deflate in 2011, when home prices began to flatten and even fall in several Chinese cities, slowing economic growth in 2012. Although popular wants and needs created some genuine increase in demand, the high number of vacant residential properties started to show bubble growth.

This bubble continued to grow, a phenomenon similar to that of the US and some European countries like Ireland, Greece and Spain, and resulted in the construction of more than 64 million additional apartments. Because of overcapacity across many industries such as chemical, steel, textile and shoe industries, they started establishing their own real estate divisions, expecting higher returns from them than from their own industries.

Before leaving office, former Premier Wen Jiabao stepped up a campaign started in April 2010 to control the rapid development of the housing market, placing stricter limits on loans to purchase homes. Buyers, however, were not deterred and real estate prices continued to increase each month after March of that year.

Although there are signs that the Chinese economy is rebounding, and given the poor returns of other investment options, many people still consider real estate a choice alternative investment to preserve their assets. Estimates place real estate at more than 60 percent of household assets since 2008, compared with approximately 20 percent for cash deposits.

The housing bubble is not limited to China, however. Writing for Project Syndicate, Nouriel Roubini, Chairman of Roubini Global Economics, warns, “…signs of frothiness, if not outright bubbles, are reappearing in housing markets in Switzerland, Sweden, Norway, Finland, France, Germany, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and, back for an encore, the UK (well, London). In emerging markets, bubbles are appearing in Hong Kong, Singapore, China, and Israel, and in major urban centers in Turkey, India, Indonesia, and Brazil.”

The Chinese central government’s efforts to cool an overheated property market have been frustrated by local governments in smaller cities, where housing prices have not climbed as steeply as in the bigger ones. Governments in smaller cities are therefore less inclined to enforce Beijing’s directives on how to respond to the situation.

Although some experts consider the Chinese market a “wild card”, the housing bubble in China is different from that in the US. According to the Milken Institute, for example, Chinese residential mortgage debt was 15 percent of GDP as of 2009, compared to 81.4 percent in the US. Under these conditions, it is possible that, should the China housing bubble burst, it will cause less damage that the one in the US.

Also, increasing urbanization rates in China may sustain demand for quality housing, something that didn’t occur in countries going through a similar process. China’s urbanization rate at slightly over 53 percent is still behind those of most developed countries whose urbanization rate is over 70 percent.

The Chinese government confronts a dilemma: if it lends more money to developers it may prevent social upheaval but at the risk of making the bubble even bigger, to such an extent that it will be difficult even for China to control.
[674 words]

Source: Counter Punch
http://www.counterpunch.org/2014/02/28/is-china-the-next-real-estate-bubble/
 楼主| 发表于 2014-5-8 23:27:31 | 显示全部楼层
Part II: Speed


China property slump add danger to local finance
BY Bloomberg news | May 7, 2014

[Time 2]
China's weakening property market poses an increasing danger to local governments, threatening to strain their finances and intensify an economic slowdown.

Land sales in 20 major cities fell 5 percent in March from a year earlier, the biggest drop in at least a year, according to China Real Estate Information Corp. data compiled by Bloomberg. The value of land sales in third-tier cities declined 27 percent last month, according to SouFun Holdings Ltd., the nation's biggest real-estate website owner.

Failure to find other revenue sources increases the risk of defaults and financial turmoil that curb economic expansion already projected this year at the slowest pace since 1990. Some cities plan to reverse controls implemented to make home prices more affordable or give residency benefits to out-of-town buyers, a state-run newspaper reported this week.

"As the housing market is cooling off, we expect land-sale revenue will decline and this will add pressure on the funding capacity for local governments," said Zhu Haibin, chief China economist with JPMorgan Chase & Co. in Hong Kong. Land sales will drop more in areas where oversupply in property is more severe, said Zhu, who previously worked at the Bank for International Settlements.
[197 words]

[Time 3]
The weakness adds to the urgency of expanding China's municipal-bond market so regional governments can sell debt directly to the public instead of through off-budget corporations called local-government financing vehicles. A sample of provincial, municipal and county administrations shows they have guaranteed repayment of about 37 percent, or 3.5 trillion yuan ($560 billion) of debt with land sales, according to a national audit report released in December.

Default Monitoring
The People's Bank of China said yesterday it will strengthen monitoring of credit extended to LGFVs, real estate companies and industries with overcapacity to minimize risks to the financial system. The central bank will maintain a "prudent" monetary policy, according to a quarterly report.

A worsening market downturn would increase pressure on national leaders to ease monetary policy for the first time since 2012. Premier Li Keqiang and other officials have outlined plans for railway spending and tax breaks to support growth while pledging to avoid any short-term, large-scale stimulus that could exacerbate debt risks.

The government budgeted for an 11.8 percent drop in land-sales revenue in 2014, according to the Finance Ministry's annual work report in March. Nationwide, land sales in 2013 were equivalent to about 61 percent of local-government revenue, according to figures from the Ministry of Land and Resources and the Finance Ministry.
[215 words]

[Time 4]
‘Snowball' Risk
"More policy easing in the next few months will be critical, as the property correction could snowball," Nomura economists led by Zhang Zhiwei in Hong Kong wrote in a May 5 report. "Local governments are likely to be under even more pressure to help the property sector as their fiscal revenue generation is so highly dependent on land sales."

Developers may have less incentive to buy land as a 25 percent plunge in new-building construction helped drag economic growth in the first three months of this year to 7.4 percent, the weakest in six quarters. Without stimulus, property-investment expansion may slow enough to push down expansion to as low as 5.8 percent, Nomura said.

"Just as happened before the property bubbles burst in the U.S. and Japan, monetary policy tightening" is playing an important role in the property downturn's timing and pace, Zhang wrote.

‘Right Time'
HSBC Holdings Plc economists said in a May 5 report that "now is the right time" for the central bank to help private investment. Long-term interest rates "have stayed stubbornly high," wrote analysts led by Qu Hongbin in Hong Kong.

The March collapse of closely held developer Zhejiang Xingrun Real Estate Co. may foreshadow a shakeout among the nation's almost 90,000 real estate companies. Developers, who buy land, will probably face more challenges this year as access to funding narrows, according to a Bloomberg News survey in March.
[236 words]

[Time 5]
Some small and medium-sized Chinese developers are facing financing issues and there will be more such cases in the second half of the year, according to a front-page commentary today in the China Securities Journal, which is supervised by the official Xinhua News Agency.

Local governments will feel the impact if the property market keeps cooling, said Shen Jianguang, chief Asia economist at Mizuho Securities Asia Ltd. in Hong Kong. "This does not have to be a bad thing because they can explore other methods to boost revenue -- say, selling other assets," Shen said.

Local Assets
Businesses controlled by local administrations, which range from hotels to retailers to power generators, had assets of 43.8 trillion yuan as of the end of March, according to Ministry of Finance estimates.

"The key is the fiscal reform, to get rid of the reliance on land sales," Shen said.

Cities including Tianjin, Hangzhou and Changsha plan to stimulate the property market by loosening home-purchase limits or letting buyers get household registration, according to a report in the China Securities Journal. Nanning, the capital of southern Guangxi province, said last month it would waive a 2011 rule discouraging speculative investment by residents of neighboring cities, Xinhua reported.
[203 words]

[Time 6]
Two Lots
In Hangzhou, the capital of eastern Zhejiang province and base of China's e-commerce giant Alibaba Group Holding Ltd., only two lots of land were sold in April, a two-year low, according to SouFun. The average land premium, or the spread between the developer's bid and the government's asking price, decreased to zero in April from 0.2 percent in March and 30 percent in December, SouFun said.

Zhejiang province has the highest level of reliance on land sales for revenue and may be more exposed to the volatile property market, according to a March report by Moody's Investors Service. At the end of 2012, 66.3 percent of government debt at the provincial, municipal and county levels in Zhejiang was guaranteed by land-sale revenue, the province said in in its January debt-audit report.

"If the government wants to stabilize growth, real estate is essential," Mizuho's Shen said.

To contact Bloomberg News staff for this story: Xiaoqing Pi in Beijing at xpi1@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Chris Anstey at canstey@bloomberg.net Scott Lanman, Jeanette Rodrigues
[177 words]

Source: Yahoo Finance
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-property-slump-adds-danger-043104652.html;_ylt=AwrSyCN1lGtTo2cAhDOTmYlQ
发表于 2014-5-8 23:31:19 | 显示全部楼层
biubiubiu来占座~
------------
谢谢楼主!~

speaker:
the researchers study many successful managers around the world and find that more than thirty percent of their time spent is inefficient
the researchers ask the managers to describe the work they do each day and after the managers follow the method the researchers recommended, the managers save eight hours a week on average on their work
by reallocation the time and dispute some work that is no longer important
the managers were asked to write down why they choose the work, how many time they will contribute to the work and how much resource they will use
some criteria to decide whether the work matter
how value is the work to you
what work you will generate and bump?
do you get a personal value get doing the job
whether it could be delegated
which is most likely to be done
some companies are trying some policy to push their employees to  talk with each other and the companies sometimes could only make organization policy or decisions to make sure the benefit
the most barrier for people to get more efficient is not just write down what they are going to do, but really desire to do the job
really committed to the change and try to save the twenty percent of our time
what about adding more valuable work since we have saved some of our time
the example of a person try some other work and become a good coach, dramatically improve his work
the more company judge the workers’ job on how they do and what source they consume, the more the company lose the chance to use the workers’ own judgement
what the real aim of the company to hire knowledge workers
if the company allow the workers who know clearly what they will do and how they can do the job, the company just need to let the workers finish the task in their own way

time2:
land sales in 20 major cities fell 5 percent in March from a year earlier and the decline will continue if the government could not hold the real-estate market
land sales will drop more in areas where oversupply in property is more severe

time3:
the urgency of expanding China’s municipal-bond market
TPBC will strengthen monitoring of credit extended to LGFVs
some plans for railway spending and tax breaks to support growth
the land sales is estimated to decline in 2014

time4:
developers may have less incentive to buy land
monetary policy tightening is playing an important role in the property downturn’s timing and pace
this is the right time for the government to help private investment
a forecast of a shakeout among the nation’s almost 90000 real estate companies

time5:
local government may feel stressed if the property market keeps cooling however they can explore other methods to boost revenue
some cities plan to stimulate the property market by loosening home-purchase limits

time6:
only two lots sold in April
if the government wants to stabilize growth, real estate is essential

time7:
why the house price goes high
even through the stricter limits on loans to purchase homes, the real estate prices continued to increase
the housing bubble is appearing around the world not limited in China
if the China housing bubble burst, it will cause less damage that the one in the US because more Chinese use their saving to buy their houses other than loans
发表于 2014-5-8 23:36:38 | 显示全部楼层
----Speaker
A discussion regarding the significance and the ways of scheduling time for meaningful work.

----Speed
[Time2] 1'35''
China's weakening property market poses an increasing danger to local governments, threatening to strain their finances and intensify an economic slowdown.
[Time 3] 1'39''
The effects of a worsening market downturn on different parties.
[Time 4] 1'50''
It is critical to have more policy easing, and "now is the right time" for the central bank to help private investment.
[Time 5] 1'15
The key to this problem is the fiscal Reform, to get rid of the reliance on land sales.
[Time 6] 2'05''
Real estate is essential to the government's growth.


----Obstacle 4'06''
The author of the passage concerns that if China's real estate bubble, which mainly affects residential real estate, and intensifies because of inadvanced social welfare and pension systems in China, continues to grow and reaches a crisis point, the consequences will be serious for  both the Chinese economy and the world economy as well.

发表于 2014-5-8 23:48:49 | 显示全部楼层
晚睡的福利呀~~~~~

Speaker:
This conversation is about how to make time for the work that matters. what are the kinds of questions people should be asking about their tasks to know whether they’re truly important? we focused in on four sort of diagnostic questions. One is, how valuable is this, really? Secondly, to what extent could you actually get out of it? The third one is do you get any personal value out of doing this? The final one is the question about whether this could be delegated. It requires coordination and communication that organizations tend not to have a lens on or metrics to watch and monitor and improve.

Time2: 1'16"
Time3: 1'36"
Time4: 1'40"
Time5: 1'12"
Time6: 1'01"
China's weakening property market poses an increasing danger to local governments, threatening to strain their finances and intensify an economic slowdown.
The People's Bank of China will strengthen monitoring of credit extended to LGFVs, real estate companies and industries with overcapacity to minimize risks to the financial system. The central bank will maintain a "prudent" monetary policy.
More policy easing in the next few months will be critical, as the property correction could snowball, Local governments are likely to be under even more pressure to help the property sector as their fiscal revenue generation is so highly dependent on land sales.
Some small and medium-sized Chinese developers are facing financing issues and there will be more such cases in the second half of the year.
In Hangzhou, the capital of eastern Zhejiang province and base of China's e-commerce giant Alibaba Group Holding Ltd., only two lots of land were sold in April, a two-year low, according to SouFun.

Obstacle: 4'27"
Real estate in China has experienced a remarkable expansion in recent years. This development, however, has not gone parallel with the demand for real estate. If the situation reaches a crisis point, the consequences will be serious for the Chinese economy and for the world economy as well.
The Chinese government confronts a dilemma: if it lends more money to developers it may prevent social upheaval but at the risk of making the bubble even bigger, to such an extent that it will be difficult even for China to control.


发表于 2014-5-8 23:58:25 | 显示全部楼层
占~~~~~~~~~~~~~·
--------------------------------
【Speed】
time2 00:00:53

time3 00:01:08

time4 00:01:21

time5 00:01:03

time6 00:00:58

【Obstacle】
00:04:46



发表于 2014-5-9 00:09:32 | 显示全部楼层
占~~~~~~~~

Speaker: Delegating and outsourcing can be a good method to save time.Knowlege workers can do their work more meanfully.Know the value of what you're doing,what you will get out of it,your personal value out of doing this and whether they can be delegated can help you improve your productivity.It's hard to do this.Plan is organizational,coordination cost is high and new tools and tech will bring more workers.Adding nore high value works can also make work time meanful.People knowing their role,where they are going and what they have to accomplish can also improve productivity.

00:50
The slump of China's real estate market lead to the decline of land price.Without other efficient revenue source,local government will face serious problems in default and funding capacity.

01:08
The weakness urges the government to expand the municipal-bond market to let local governments have another way to get fund.The government won't have a short-term,large scale stimulus to monitore the default better.

01:22
Easing policy will lead to a snowball risk in real estate market just like what happened in Japan and US.It's the right time for the central bank to help private firms now.

00:58
The cool down of property market influnce the local government best.But it may not be a bad thing.They can find other method to improve the economy now.Local governments still have many assests.They need to have a fiscal reform now to get through this risk.

00:40
Zhejiang province relies heavily on land revenues.It is making some changes now.But if the government wants to stabilize growth, real estate is essential.

05:05
Main Idea:  Problems in China's real estate industry
China's real estate has expanded to a large scale in recent years.However,the expansion do not go parallel with the demand.In the past few years,policy encourages people to puechase real esate as an investment.And to chinese people,home is a necessity not a luxury.Until 2012,the real estate bubble comes to its top.Overcapacity accross other industry lead other companies also to establish real estates.
Although recently chinese economy is rebounding,people have other options on investments,real estates is still the good one.
Some people think that china's real estate bubble is different with other countries' and has low risk.Because china has low mortgage debt on real estate.And the urbanization rate is raising,which means the demand of quality housing will keep rising.
So now chinese government is facing a dilemma.
发表于 2014-5-9 00:19:28 | 显示全部楼层

Time2:1’45”
Time3: 1’42”
Time4: 1’15“
Time5: 1’40”
Time6: 1'32"
obstacle:5'26''
China's real estate has experience a large expansion .However,the expansion do not go parallel with the demand.In the past few years,policy encourages people to puechase real esate as an investment.And to chinese people,home is a necessity not a luxury.
Until 2010,government have decided to do something to control the development of the real estate.
Although recently chinese economy is rebounding,people have other options on investments,real estates is still the good one.
Some people think that china's real estate bubble is different with other countries' and has low risk.Because china has low mortgage debt on real estate.And the urbanization rate is raising,which means the demand of quality housing will keep rising.


发表于 2014-5-9 06:08:59 | 显示全部楼层
Speed:
1. 1'18''
2. 2'04''
3. 2'09''
4. 1'11''
5. 49''

Obstacle 4'02''
Policy support+cultural thought (household a necessity, not a luxury; advantage to marry a girl)-->house demand &price↑, house bubble

Wen Jiabao came up with policies to restrain, but price still ↑, especially in big cities

The house bubble in China is different from that in US. Less damage to economy. Reason: 16% GDP, urbanization needs.

A dilemma
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