【Native Speaker每日综合训练—33系列】【33-15】经管 Abenomics

TaoRs92

Official Weibo: http://weibo.com/u/3476904471

大家好，我是新来的周五经管君。
很高兴能在未来的一段时间里，与大家在周五见面。
第一次发帖，各方面都在摸索中，感谢猴哥和Kim对我的帮助，也请大家多多关照，有意见和建议请随时联系我，谢谢^ ^


今天的主题是Abenomics。

首先在这里介绍一下Abenomics的概念（from Wikipedia）：

Abenomics refers to the economic policies advocated by Shinzo Abe since the December 2012 general election, which elected Abe to his second term as Prime Minister of Japan. Abenomics is based upon "three arrows" of fiscal stimulus, monetary easing and structural reforms.

其次是Liberal Democratic Party（LDP）：日本自民党。这个词将在下面的文章中反复出现。


Speaker部分来自npr，主要是一些对Abenomics的评价，在读完Speed和Obstacle之后听也许更合适。

Speed和Obstacle是一整篇超长的文章。
（也找了不少其他的材料，但始终无法舍弃这篇好文，第一次发帖就没有完全按照要求，在这里先抱歉。下次一定改进！）

Speed部分包括Abenomics的由来，目的，和对three arrows的详述（其内容和对日本经济方方面面的影响）。

Obstacle部分从多个方面详细分析Abe和他的政治考量，以及对日本未来的展望。

全文既有文史方面的内容，也有对经济数据和形势的分析，从多方面看待Abe的内容个人认为非常精彩。

不过这篇文章年代有点久远，里面的很多“预测”已经过期。

但在读完全文后，我们也许可以思考，文中的“预测”是否兑现，日本的方方面面是否有了新的变化？


现在，Abenomics走向了一个新的阶段。

有人说，日本东京申奥成功是安倍的第四支箭，提高消费税则是第五支。

四月将近，当消费税从5%升至8%时，日本的经济又会发生怎样的变化？

希望能再有机会和大家一起关注Abenomics在2014年的新动态！
（保证那时会找与时俱进的文章~同时多嘴一句，大家可以把文中关于tax的部分，与4月即将实施的消费税增加政策结合起来~）

Part I: Speaker

'Abenomics' Serving Up The Same Old Medicine In Japan?

In Japan, stocks are up as a result of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's economic stimulus policies, known as "Abenomics" — but not much else has changed.

Source:npr

http://www.npr.org/blogs/parallels/2013/08/01/207861379/abenomics-serving-up-the-same-old-medicine-in-japan

[Rephrase 1, 4min 32sec]

TaoRs92

Part II: Speed

Japan and Abenomics

Once more with feeling

The Shinzo Abe shaking up Japan’s economy seems a different man from the one whose previous premiership was marked by nationalistic posturing. He isn’t.

May 18th 2013 | TOKYO

[Time 2]

      IN “SOAPLAND”—Sopurando, a Tokyo red-light district—the price of a basic half-hour “massage” has recently gone up for the first time since 1990. Demand for the top-end, “highly technical” massage service, costing ¥60,000 ($600) a go, has also been soaring, according to Akira Ikoma, editor of My Journey, which covers the sex industry. He says it is all thanks to the surging stockmarket.

      In Sopurando they are cheekily calling this reinvigoration “awanomics”, from awa, meaning bubble or lather. Elsewhere in Japan they call it Abenomics in honour of Shinzo Abe, elected prime minister in December 2012. Japan, Mr Abe declared as he took office, was back, and he lost not a moment in proving it. Having quickly assembled his cabinet, in January he announced a ¥10.3 trillion fiscal stimulus.

      This was the first of three decisive steps. Mr Abe went on to launch what amounted to a hostile takeover of a central bank unwilling to undertake bold experiments in monetary policy, clearing out the bank’s staid leadership and installing as governor Haruhiko Kuroda, a former finance-ministry official who had been serving as head of the Asian Development Bank. Mr Kuroda had long called for a more activist approach to falling prices. Lastly, Mr Abe unambiguously committed himself to the sort of thoroughgoing structural reform that has eluded Japan’s politicians for years. He signalled his seriousness by saying that he wanted Japan to join the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), an American-led effort to liberalise trade in the region. Membership would require big changes to some of Japan’s most protected industries.

[276 words]


[Time 3]

Three arrows of desire

      Co-ordinated shifts in policy on such a scale would be striking in any country. They are staggering in the context of Japan, where a famously consensual style of doing things long ago ossified into political paralysis. The gentle people of a once powerful country stared weak-eyed at a future of apparently inexorable decline, shaken by natural disasters, slumping stockmarkets, falling prices, a shrinking population, and growing irrelevance—even scorn—abroad. Mr Abe’s dramatic rata-tat-tat of policy shifts has excited and enthused them. His approval ratings, like the stockmarket, are booming.

      Mr Abe refers to his monetary, fiscal and growth strategies as his “three arrows”. The reference, understood by all, is to an old legend from Yamaguchi, the southern part of Honshu and the region from which Mr Abe hails. Yamaguchi’s leaders have played a big role at key moments in Japan’s history, notably in the overthrow of the Tokugawa shogunate in the mid-19th century, when imperial rule was restored and the country was launched on a breakneck rush to secure economic and military might. The legend has it that a lord asked his three sons to snap an arrow, which each of them duly did. He then produced three more arrows and told the boys to snap all three at once. None of them could. One arrow, the father said, can easily be broken. Three arrows together, like a bundle of birch rods, cannot. It was an exhortation to work together for the good of the clan.

      Thus Mr Abe’s dramatic reforms are dressed in traditional garb. And the conjunction provides a key to understanding his project. In his brief and rather clueless first sojourn in the prime minister’s office six years ago, Mr Abe presented himself as a traditionalist and nationalist, one prey to the often disturbing historical obsessions of those who have never really come to terms with the defeat of their country in 1945 and the settlement subsequently imposed on it. Today’s Mr Abe presents himself as looking forward, not back. But he is still animated by thoughts of a Japan that was. His goal is at least in part a revenant of what he holds dear and lost: a Japan comfortable in its traditional values and bolstered by military prowess and the international respect he sees as his nation’s due.

[407 words]


[Time 4]

Well begun is half not done

      The first of the three arrows to make a dramatic mark was the monetary one. In early April Mr Kuroda, under orders to adopt an inflation target of 2% as a way to rid the country of its 15-year bout of deflation, announced plans whereby the goal would be achieved within two years. His measures—doubling the monetary base through an unprecedented programme of quantitative easing—exceeded everyone’s expectations, and their daring was played up by Mr Abe’s advisers. They are convinced, and have convinced their boss, that getting Japan out of its deflationary funk is less about policy details than perception—in particular, about shaking people out of a deflationary mindset. The approach, one says, is a kind of “shock and awe”.

      It has, in the short term, worked awfully well, at least for investors. From peak to trough, Japan’s stockmarket fell by four-fifths after the bubble burst in 1990. Now the stockmarket is up by over 70% in just the past six months (see chart 1)—that is, since the time that an election victory for Mr Abe and his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) started to seem likely. Mr Abe’s administration has talked down the yen, which has fallen from a high of ¥77 to the dollar last autumn to ¥101.8 this week. That has helped exporters and cheered the stockmarket further. For the first time in years, Japanese savers are playing the market. Mrs Watanabe, the archetypal small-time punter, is back.

      Promoters of Abenomics say that changing perceptions will create a virtuous circle. Bigger company profits will engender wage rises, which will boost consumption, which will lead to renewed business investment, which will lead to profits. They will be overjoyed by preliminary figures, released on May 16th, showing an annualised GDP growth rate of 3.5% in the first quarter of 2013, though it is hard to see how policies only then being announced can take all that much of the credit. In truth, the transmission mechanisms that link monetary policy to economic outcomes remain fragile.

[359 words]


[Time 5]

       The animal spirits returning to the stockmarket have helped create a wealth effect, thanks to which people feel better off. The slick, on-message selling of the new policies by ministers and their spin doctors has built consumer confidence, too. Retailers are posting their biggest gains in sales in nearly a decade. There is a palpable buzz in the after-work bars and restaurants of Tokyo. But it is essential to Mr Abe’s plans that the monetary and fiscal stimulus should boost aggregate demand and raise prices more broadly. Nominal GDP determines the level of tax revenues—and, astonishingly, persistent deflation has left it where it was 1991 (see chart 2). This has depressed tax revenues, a chief reason why the gross national debt has widened to about 240% of GDP. Revived revenues are desperately needed.

      Yet if the Bank of Japan succeeds in ending deflation, a fresh problem could arise. The bank’s purchases of long-term government bonds and other assets through its programme of quantitative easing are designed to depress their yield, and thus to spur banks, companies and institutional investors into seeking higher returns elsewhere—either by investing in the real economy or by investing abroad (helpfully driving the yen down further). But success in raising inflation expectations could lead to investors, uncertain as to how far such success may go, demanding a higher risk premium for holding government bonds. The bond market has recently become a lot more volatile.

      Whatever the bond market does, a boost to aggregate demand is not enough to solve Japan’s budgetary problems. Robert Feldman of Morgan Stanley MUFG, a financial-services company, highlights the stark fiscal picture. In the budget for the year that ended in March, and across central and local governments, total government spending on pensions, health care, nursing care and family benefits was ¥124.5 trillion, or 26.1% of GDP. But government revenue amounted to only ¥59.2 trillion, or 12.5% of GDP. Borrowing largely made up the difference. Stabilising Japan’s national debt, Mr Feldman judges, requires moving from a deficit before interest payments of 8% to a surplus of 3.2%. A doubling of the consumption tax, to 10%, is planned for 2014-15. But with a shrinking workforce having to support a growing number of elderly, the necessary swing is simply too big for any plausible mix of tax hikes and spending cuts to deal with.

[402 words]


[Time 6]

All change

      So Japan desperately needs a sustained increase in the long-run rate of economic growth. Hence the third of Mr Abe’s arrows: sweeping reforms designed to invigorate the supply side of the economy. Mr Abe talks of ending the protection enjoyed by Japan’s farmers, doctors and pharmaceutical companies; breaking open the labour market’s rigidities; improving education; cutting through boundless regulation; opening utilities up to competition; encouraging innovation and spurring business investment.

      In pursuit of these ends Mr Abe has re-energised the bureaucracy. He has set up committees where cabinet members sit beside bureaucrats, academics and business folk to come up with plans for the reform of the regulatory system, industrial competitiveness, scientific and technological innovation, and so on. Mr Abe himself chairs the most crucial committees, notably the Council on Economic and Fiscal Policy. They will present proposals in June.

stepping up again

      Farming has emerged as a priority. Some sectors are highly inefficient, with sky-high tariffs on rice and dairy products, a superabundance of elderly part-time farmers, and land laws limiting the size of farm plots. Joining the TPP will force big changes on the industry. Yoshimasa Hayashi, the farm minister, wants to consolidate land into bigger plots to make it attractive for young entrepreneurs to get into farming and market gardening, which will help food processing and restaurants, too.

      In medical care, the government wants drugs to be more easily sold over the internet, and approved faster. (Mr Abe’s backers have made a parable out of this: had he had access sooner to a wonderdrug for his bowel disease, they say, he would not have suffered the breakdown which led him to resign in 2007.) Energy has its own particular urgency following the nuclear accident in March 2011 at Fukushima Dai-ichi plant, leading to the closure, if only for now, of nearly all Japan’s nuclear power stations. The government wants to encourage competition in supply and investment in renewable energy as well as in a national infrastructure for imports of natural gas.

      The vim with which Mr Abe has loosed this third arrow is perhaps the biggest of all the surprises he has sprung since returning to power. His staunchest supporters, including his chief cabinet secretary, Yoshihide Suga, told him that committing to the TPP beforehand would endanger the LDP’s chances in July’s elections for the Diet’s upper house. The farm lobby is, after all, an important plank of the party’s support. Yet the prime minister insisted on doing it when he went to Washington in February. Delay, he thought, would show a want of leadership.

[447 words]

To be continued in Obstacle.

TaoRs92

Part III: Obstacle

[Paraphrase 7]

Grandpop psychology

      He seems to have been right. Mr Suga now calls TPP “the biggest pillar of reform”. He is the chief defender of Mr Abe’s decision, and no wonder. Mr Abe’s poll ratings continue to climb; he enjoys support of over 70%, unparalleled for a recent leader. The LDP looks set for a landslide in the upper house to match the one it achieved in the lower house in December. After years of parliamentary gridlock, a Japanese prime minister is set to have a governing mandate to do nearly anything he wants.

      For those who followed Mr Abe’s brief and inglorious first term in office both the substance of the policy pronouncements and the slickness of their delivery are something of a puzzle. The first Mr Abe showed little commitment to bold economic change. He presided over a shambolic cabinet that made an art form out of gaffes. Mr Abe himself got embroiled in a pointless row with neighbours and America over a pet historical theme, claiming that wartime Japan did not enslave the women of conquered nations in military-run brothels. (The testimony of many women shows conclusively that it did.)

      One explanation for the difference, put forward by several who know him, is that Mr Abe is a man who learned better. They say his years in the political wilderness transformed him. He educated himself, especially about economics. He resolved to avoid needless historical distractions. Residual displays of nationalism are just tokens of gratitude to old friends who held faith with him after his resignation. Economics trumps all now.

      Others paint a slightly different psychological portrait. They say that two separate personalities exist within the same man. One, the traditionalist, is the nationalist grandson of Nobusuke Kishi, who oversaw the development of Japanese-occupied Manchuria in the 1930s, who was imprisoned as a suspected Class A war criminal, and who later served as a notable conservative post-war prime minister. This nationalist Mr Abe resents suggestions of Japanese war guilt and dislikes Japan’s “apology diplomacy” over its wartime atrocities. He is of a similar mind to a cabinet colleague who calls the years since the war a “history of Japan’s destruction” (never mind that the LDP was a chief beneficiary of the post-war decades, during which Japan spread peace and prosperity). These were the beliefs that shaped his first premiership.

      The other, very different, character dwelling in Mr Abe is the economic moderniser, who is also—witness the TPP—an internationalist. The two are united in wanting a strong Japan. But whereas the moderniser is a radical the nationalist is a reactionary. He is the Mr Abe who talks about overturning the “post-war regime” and recreating a “beautiful Japan”. He insists Japan must project a strong image, not just through strengthened armed forces, but by promoting patriotism and by harking back to an imperial idyll where the country had both might and right.

      The worry voiced by one senior LDP figure is that the internationalist’s beliefs are not as deep-seated as the traditionalist’s. The LDP man worries about the traditionalist Abe gaining the upper hand, and with good reason. Last month, in a meeting with Diet members, Mr Abe questioned whether Japan was really the aggressor during its wars of 1931-45. The senior LDP figure lays his hopes in Mr Suga keeping Mr Abe’s focus on the economy. “Not having a Mr Suga—this is what I am most concerned about,” he says. “An Abe cabinet without Suga—it doesn’t bear thinking about.” It is hardly a ringing endorsement from a man who was one of Mr Abe’s principal backers when he ran for his party’s leadership.

Japan stretches its sea legs

      Yet a third interpretation of Mr Abe—one that looks to the external world rather than inner psychodrama—is perhaps the most plausible. It is that his concerns about Japan’s economic weakness and his concerns about frailties in its national defence have been strengthened, and made mutually reinforcing, by the rise of China. China loomed on the agenda in 2006-07, but did not dominate it as it does today. China overtook Japan as the world’s second-biggest economy in 2010. Its growing assertiveness suggests that it is out to reclaim its centuries-old centrality in East Asia, a position which Japan usurped in the late 19th century and occupied, in various ways, for much of the 20th. The most obvious instance of Chinese assertiveness is around the waters of the Senkaku or Diaoyu islands, where China is openly challenging Japanese control. In this context Mr Abe sees economic and national security as all of a piece—and would do so even if he did not hang out with right-wing pals in a weird historical theme park of the mind.

      Yet choosing backward-facing patriotism as a model for modern strength has consequences for how Mr Abe is likely to govern after the upper-house elections. For all the current emphasis on structural reform—continued work on which is vital if the fiscal stimulus and monetary expansion are to lead to long-term growth—Mr Suga and other colleagues make it clear that constitutional change will be a priority for Mr Abe in the Diet’s autumn session.


The emperor’s new constitution

      Some amendments to the 1947 constitution, such as one acknowledging Japan’s clear right to a standing army, navy and air force, are now broadly popular. But it is becoming clear that Mr Abe and the traditionalists, pining for an imperial era from which most of the country has moved on, aim to go further than that. They want, among other things: the emperor to be restored as head of state; collective duties emphasised over individual rights; and veneration for the family unit. As a precursor to such changes, the LDP plans to make it easier to amend a constitution which so far has never been altered. The current process requires a two-thirds majority in each house, plus a national referendum.

      At best, all this could prove a distraction at a time when some structural-reform initiatives already appear to be running into the sands. At worst, it could endanger all reform by eroding the government’s popularity, at the same time increasing tensions with Japan’s neighbours. Far from having banished the ghosts of his past, as some of his advisers claim, the prime minister is in danger of summoning them up again.

[1118 words]


Source：The Economist
http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21578052-shinzo-abe-shaking-up-japans-economy-seems-different-man-one-whose-previous

xiaofan0205

哎呦，周末的沙发！

Speaker:
Since wages and prices kept going down, and so did consumer spending, Japan has pumped a lot of money into the economy in order to create inflation. The policy has driven up the stock market and exports are up too. But many people in Tokyo say Abe's policies have not yet affect them, and they'll still waiting to see which way the economy goes before they make any big purchase or investments.

Time2: 2'16"
Thanks to the Abenomics, the price of a basic "massage" has recently gone up for the first time since 1990.
Having quickly assembled his cabinet, Abe announced a ￥10.3 trillion fiscal stimulus.

Time3: 3'03"
Mr Abe refers to his monetary, fiscal and growth strategies as his "three arrows". The reference is to an old legend from the region he hails. This dramatic reforms are dressed in traditional garb.

Time4: 2'36"
The first of the three arrows to make a dramatic mark was the monetary one, the stockmarket is up by over 70% in just six months and yen also be talked down, but the transmission mechanisms that link monetary policy to economic outcomes remain fragile.

Time5: 3'39"
Persistent deflation has left it where it was 1991, which has depressed tax revenues. Yet if the bank of Japan succeeds in ending deflation, the bond market could become more volatile. A doubling of the consumption tax is planned for 2014-15.

Time6: 3'44"
Japan desperately needs a sustained increase in the long-run rate of economic growth and farming has emerged as a priority. The vim with which Mr Abe has loosed this third arrow is perhaps the biggest of all the surprises he has sprung since returning to power.

Obstacle: 7'38"
Mr Abe enjoys support of over 70%, unparalleled for a recent leader. He is totally different from the first Mr Abe who showed little commitment to bold economic change.
There are three explanations for the difference, the first one is that Mr Abe is a man who learned better, the second is that two separate personalities exist within the same man, the third one is that his concerns about Japan's economic weakness and his concerns about frailties in its national defence have been strengthened, and made mutually reinforcing, by the rise of China, this one is perhaps the most plausible.

assemble cabinet 组建内阁
liberalise trade 贸易自由化
approval rate 支持率
wealth effect 财富效应
spin doctor 幕僚
persistent deflation 持续的通货膨胀
be desperately needed 迫切需要
upper house 上议院
lower house 众议院
Class A war criminal 甲级战犯
overturning 推翻
deep-seated 根深蒂固
Diet members 国会议员
national referendum 全民公投

疏离无罪

板凳~~~~~~~~~~
今天的是真长。。不过economist的文章是好

Speaker: deflation economy in japan. raise people's expection on inflation rate. then make more people to consume and invest.Some people do not think that Abenomics works well.Only food price grows up,which suggests that domestic demand is still weak.Abenomics made few people wealthy and left people behind.

01:27
Abe's promise and action to promote Japan's economy.But abenomics seems to be a bubble policy.

02:00
Abe refers to his monetary, fiscal and growth strategie as his three arrows.Describe the "three arrows" sotry.Abe presents himself as a traditionalist and nationalist.

01:47
Abe's monetary policy to achieve 20% inflation worked very well at first year.Stimulate the stock market and the consume.But the further outcomes of Japan's economy still remains fragile.

02:06
The policy succeeds to raise comsumer confidence.But the national debt is a serious problem to Japan.And the inflation also makes investors to seek more risky and more profitable investment,which lead to the volatile bond market.

02:25
Abe's third arrow is to reform and stimulate the supply side of the economy.He will take action in farming,medical care,energy section and so on.But some of his action may hurt his next election of LDP.

07:22
Main Idea: The personality of Abe and the constitutional change.
TPP is the bigges reform of Abenomic and Abe's pool rate is still raising.
Some people think that Abe has a disgraaceful past.But the people who support him said that Abe has learned better now and he has two spearate personality in one body.
The first personality is a traditionalist and nationalist who resent Japan's war guilty
Another personality is a economic moderniser and internationalist who want to make Jpan more strong.
And Abe looks more the external world rather than inner psychodrama especially China is rising sharply and seems to replace Japan in Asia and the world.
Facing current situation,Abe and his government want to change the 1947 constitution which constrain the army force of Japan.And this action will intense the Japan's relationship with its neighbor and endanger the postion of Abe.

jenniferlyy125

Day 39  thanks to Tao~

----speaker

Some experts think abenomics has no difference from previous economic policies. In the 1990s, deflation was a widely issue and people had the assumption of price going down. The law maker of LDP suggested change assumption from deflation to inflation, and thus the abenomics of was born.

Quantitative results indicate increase in Japan’s exports and stock price. However, Japanese citizens do not think they benefit from abenomics. A salesman of traditional Japanese tea indicated that no big change for him after the policy, however they are some companies and customers who become more positive. An owner of a supermarket disclosed that the policy made less impact on working class, and no rise in wage and no change in customer expanding habits occured, and even the supermarket itself needs to cover the price increase since customers are sensitive to price rise.

A scholar commented that abenomics will not work, and it just creates bubble economy to make people forget the deflationary reality.

----speed

1.      1’46

The price increase in Japan can be attributed to abenomics, which announced fiscal stimulus after Abe’s takeover. The first step was structural reform and joined in TPP to reform some most protected industries.

2.      2’27

Abenomics is approved and people adore the policy. The three arrows in abenomics are his monetary, fiscal and growth strategies, which should be implemented together to generate more power. Even though six years ago Abe regarded himself as a traditionalist while now he is looking forward, Abenomics is still dressed in traditional grab.  

3.      1’42

The first monetary arrow successfully inflated prices and got people away from the long lasting deflation fear. Inflation benefited exports and stock market, and people predict virtuous cycle and GDP growth.

4.      1’59

Abenomics increased stock price, which create wealth effect and make people better off. However, the depressed tax revenue made national debts high. Also, problems of low yields of government bonds and other assets encourage invest in other high returns. The boosted demand is not enough to solve budgetary problems, and tax is panned to increase to 10%.

5.      2’19

To sustain long term economic growth, the third arrow is sweeping reforms to trigger supply. Re-energize bureaucracy, prioritize farming, easily sold medical drugs online are some examples of the structural reform.

(intro: inflation--abenomics----intro of abenomics----good results: GDP, export, stock---problems: debt-----solution)

-----obstacle

4’50

The support of Abenomics has been improving, and Abe try not to be distracted by history and focus more on economy. Abe is combined with two separate personalities----traditionalist, and economic modernizer. Modernizer is different from internationalism, and say Abe a person who look external rather than internal might be the most plausible. In addition, Japanese constitution was adjusted according to nee situation and policies.

这篇有点晦涩啊，经济政治历史都来了~以后有时间再拿出来读下~

MAGGIEHE1993

占~~~~~~~~~~谢谢楼主~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Speaker: The talk is about Japanese Abenomics. Some experts viewed Abenomics as the same policy as the policy in the early
         1990s. Abenomics hope to change expectations of consumers. 1 trillion dollars have been pumped into the economy and
         government spending is increasing. But some of the interviewee of the news said that they haven't seen any rise in
         their salary and the money is of no use but to create another bubble.
         An expert thinks Abenomics won't work and will create a bubble economy. Abenomic is supply-side. It will threaten to
         make very few people wealthy but leave ordinary Japanese behind. The expert thinks the policy isn't worth emulating
         for developed countries.

time2: 1min 40
        An introduction of Abenomics and some steps Mr Abe has taken to carry out his plan.

time3: 2min 27"
       The writer described the traditional story from which Abe's three arrows of desire comes from. Today Mr Abe presents
       himself as looking forward and wish to make Japan a stronger country.

time4: 2min 08"
       Abe's first arrow was the monetary one and the result of quantitative easing exceeded everyone's expectations.
       The short-term result of the monetary policy was excellent and promoters of Abenomics thought this would be a
       virtuous circle. However, the writer thinks that the transmission mechanisms that link monetary policy to economic
       outcomes remain fragile.

time5: 2min 23"
       Abe's plan of monetary and fiscal stimulus has ended deflation successfully but revived revenues are desperately needed.
       Although the Bank of Japan succeeds in ending defaltion, a fresh problem could arise that the bond market will be more
       volatile and force investors to invest in foreign markets. Whatever the bond market does, a boost to aggregate demand is
       not enough to solve Japan's budgetary problems.

time6: 2min 58"
       The third of Mr Abe's arrows is sweeping reforms designed to invigorate the supply side of the economy. The affected
       industries include farming, medical care, energy and so on. The chief cabinet secretary of Abe warned that the reform
       aimed at farming would affect LDP's chances in July's elections. But Abe still insisted on doing so.

Obstacle: 7min 26"
       Abe now enjoys support of over 70% and the LDP looks set for a landslide in the upper house.
       In his first term of prime minister, Abe didn't focus much on bolding economic change and himself got embroiled in a
       pointless rows with neighbors and America.
       Some people think that Abe's years in the political wilderness transformed him. Others think that two sepatate
       personalities exist within the same man. One is traditionalist, for Abe is the nationalist grandson of Nobusuke Kishi.
       The other is the economic moderniser. But the public is worried that if there isn't the support of Mr Suga, Mr Abe wouldn't
       focus so much on economic. A third interpretation of Mr Abe describes him as one that looks to the external world rather than
       inner psychodrama.

sherlock1992

Thx, TaoRs 兄.  M.
-------------------------------
Speaker:
The economy of Japan has gradually recovered in recent years. Some experts credits this positive phenomenon to the Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe; conversely, some economists in Japan argues that they can not find any differences between the current policy of Abe and the former policy made Japan in trouble.
Before, Japan has faced a decade of deflation. People in Japan don't want to consume or invest because they expect that the price will be cheaper tomorow.  A lawmaker suggests that Abe should try to change the expectation of people and stimulate them to consume and invest. The economy stimulating plan of Abe government improves the inflation rate, boosts the stock market (because of the low currency rate of Japanese Yen to US Dollar) and push the economy to grow. The class of white collar thinks the Abenomics has not picked up their companies situation but they relatively hold a positive outlook for the future economy.  The same little impact is on working class and further, some of them even thinks Abenomics can bring negative influence on their daily life. The economist points out that the price of food is the sole increasing commodity compared with the decreasing trend of other commodities. Thus, Japan has not getten ride of deflation completely. More worse, the dumping money can cause bubble in the stock market. A professor in Japan thinks Abenomics is not worth emulating for other developed contries and this policy will bring a deeper gap between the wealthy and the ordinary Japanese.

kimwang53

Tao的第一帖必须占首页！


1.58
2.53
2.28
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6.07
好文！

TaoRs92

自己发个作业。选文的时候看过了就不计时了。


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See Japan's economy got better throught the rising situation of its red-light district.
The introduction of Abenomics.
Abe's three steps:
1 fiscal stimulus
2 put those he wanted to replace those disagreed with him in the central bank.
3 help Japan to join TPP
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Japan's difficult economic situation.Abe's idea won him supports from Japanese.
The origin of Abe's three arrows.One is easy to break.Three are hardly to be beaten.
Abe's aim--help Japan win what it should have.
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The first and the second arrow--monetary one.fiscal stimulus.rise inflation.quantitative easing.
Aim--get Japan out of the deflation funk.
Result--investment improved(in short term).GDP rised.
The circle of Abenomics.
But,the transmission mechanisms still fragile.
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Some good perfromances under the two arrows.But the deflation wasn't cured.The consuption wasn't improved.The depreciation of yen even increased the debt of Japan.
Even if the two arrows succeeded in ending deflation,there will be another problem.Investors will seek higher premium in their investment.The bond market will suffer.
Also,the boost of demand is not the only problem that Japan should deal with.The different parts in its GDP aren't match each other.To support the deficit,the tax should be raised.But Japan,with so many eldly,cannot bear futher rasing in tax.
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Japan need a long term increase motivation.So the thrid arrow--reform.Introduce competition in supply part.Boost the economy.
Some specific contents of Abe's reform.The change in committees.
About farming.Join TPP.Consolidate land into bigger plots to attrct the young.
About medical care.Sell medicine faster through Internet.
About energy.Introduce competition.
The thrid arrow is surprising.Because it will bother some support parts.But Abe insists doing this.
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Abe's support continued rising.He could do almost whatever he want.
His two almost contradictional action--the bold economic change/didn't admit the mistakes Japan made in the war time.
Analysis,about Abe and his attitude and his action:
The first one,his major focus in economy.By making those claims,he just wanted to show gratitude to those who supported him before.
The second one,
1 traditionist,nationalist.
His grandfather.His perspects towards the postion Japan should be in.
2 internationalist.
Join TPP.Beautiful Japan.
Worry from some people--traditionist more than internationalist.
3 worry for a stronger China.
Constitutional change will be priority.

Futher movements of Abe.LDP plans.
Opinions--the popularity of the government may decrease.Japan may irrtate its neighbours.Not a positive attitude towards Abe's future plan.