【Native Speaker每日综合训练—32系列】【32-14】经管-WhatsApp

kimwang53

Official Weibo: http://weibo.com/u/3476904471

Part I: Speaker

[Rephrase 1]

We Need Economic Forecasters Even Though We Can’t Trust Them

[Dialog, 13min35 sec]



Source: HBR
http://blogs.hbr.org/2014/02/we-need-economic-forecasters-even-though-we-cant-trust-them/

kimwang53

Part II: Speed

Article 2:

Facebook buying WhatsApp — it's not a bad price, it's a bad strategy

[Time 2]
Facebook (FB) is paying $16 billion for mega messaging service WhatsApp, plus another $3 billion in employee retention deals — say what?

But while the price tag is drawing sneers, it’s not so far off the mark – WhatsApp has grown faster and has a larger active user base than Twitter (TWTR), now worth $30 billion. And Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg is paying for most of the deal with shares of his company’s hyper-inflated stock, a move right out of Warren Buffett’s playbook.

No, the real problem with the deal is the flawed underlying strategy. Buying WhatsApp doesn't solve Facebook's real problems, which involve building a bigger audience to attract more advertisers, learning its audience’s wants and desires to attract more advertisers, and keeping its audience engaged to — you guessed it — attract more advertisers.

WhatsApp’s whole appeal is based on being ad-free, data-free and pro-privacy. Its only revenue stream is a 99-cent subscription fee users in some countries pay after using the service for a year.

And coming out of the blocks on Wednesday, WhatsApp CEO Jan Koum doubled down on the ad ban: “You can still count on absolutely no ads interrupting your communication.”

Sure, in Asia, there are a few other major messaging networks, such as Line and WeChat, that have found abundant revenue in creative ways, adding gaming and commerce platforms on top of the chattering masses. But that’s also not WhatsApp’s appeal and it makes the acquisition much different than Facebook's Instagram buy or even Google's (GOOG) once-controversial YouTube purchase.

And there are just insane amounts of competition. Any wrong move by Facebook-owned WhatsApp could send users scrambling to alternatives such as Waterloo-based Kik, with its 100 million users, or Line, with its 300 million. Even Blackberry (BBRY) has said it has 80 million users on its BBM app.

Furthermore, Facebook, Twitter and other ad-based social plays make far more money in the U.S. and Western Europe than the rest of the globe. But WhatsApp is most popular in less-developed regions. Facebook Messenger is actually a more popular download in Apple’s U.S. iTunes store than WhatsApp. Facebook may need help attracting and retaining teens, but it needs that help most in the United States.

It would be fascinating to see some demographic information about WhatsApp. Unfortunately, the company doesn’t collect any, throwing into question what if any useful data Facebook will gain for its own uses. The whole basis of WhatsApp usage in many regions is people trying to save money on excessive SMS fees. That may not provide the kind of upscale audience Facebook needs, and may offer limited commerce opportunities.
【434】

[Time 3]

Aren't conglomerates out of style?

Then there is Zuckerberg’s whole strategy of glomming together a bunch of different, separate mobile apps. Granted, the mobile world is different than the desktop computing ecosystem that came before – people do seem to prefer separate, simple apps over multi-function messiness. But what's the point of building a stable of separate apps? There are no savings or synergies. There's a reason conglomerates went out of style.

Kara Swisher compares the deal to Disney collecting different cable channels, but all those channels work on the same business model and having them under one roof enhances Disney's bargaining power with distributors. WhatsApp and Facebook are completely different entities. And the very nature of the mobile home screen grants just the kind of a-la-carte power to consumers that Disney and cable companies abhor.

As to those who can’t believe a top CEO’s M&A strategy should ever be questioned, I present you with Google buying Motorola, Hewlett-Packard buying Autonomy, News Corp buying MySpace, Microsoft buying aQuantive, eBay buying Skype, you remember who buying Time Warner and on and on.

And, on a related note, this is how stock market valuations get messed up, combining different kinds of businesses with different profit potential under one roof. Next year Carl Icahn, for example, could demand Facebook spin off WhatsApp.

But if you’re into mobile conglomeration, don’t quibble with the price tag. It may be the whole stock market has gone nutty for social media stocks – I’ll leave that macro question to others – but relative to what’s out there, the $16 billion isn’t crazy.

Twitter, worth about double that, had only 241 million monthly active users in December, including less than half who used the service on a daily basis.

Paying $19 billion for 450 million users equates to $42 per user, much less than the publicly traded plays, Suntrust analyst Robert Peck calculates. “This is in comparison to LinkedIn (LNKD), Twitter, Facebook and Pandora (P), which trade at multiples of $153, $140, $123, and $111 respectively,” he writes.

So again, it’s not the price that’s wrong – it’s the strategy.
【348】
Source: http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/the-exchange/facebook-buying-whatsapp---it-s-not-a-bad-price--it-s-a-bad-strategy-134643873.html

Article 3:

Why Apple, not Facebook, should have bought WhatsApp

[Time 4]
Facebook’s (FB) Mark Zuckerberg is quickly making a reputation for himself as a CEO ready to put his money where his mouth is. Pundits thought he was crazy to spend big dollars on the trendy photo-sharing app Instagram. Now a massive $16 billion bid for messaging app WhatsApp has investors shaking their heads again, with the stock lower today after hitting an all-time high yesterday.

Still, we are left to wonder if Zuckerberg is on to something, and many believe $16 billion for a messaging app is a good buy, one focused on explosive growth.

Over four hundred and fifty million worldwide Whatsapp users are nothing to sneeze at. Analyst Rich Greenfield of BTIG noted on CNBC this morning, “it gives Facebook a tremendous share of time spent on mobile devices, not just in the U.S. but globally when you tack on Facebook plus Instagram plus WhatsApp.”

The growth story is huge, but Jon Najarian of optionMONSTER says its also a great defensive play, one that hurts Apple the most.

“Apple has the equivalent of a stealth bomber, and they’re sitting there using slingshots to do what they’re doing [in terms of acquisitions]. They should have been in here, knocking on the door,” of WhatsApp, Najarian says.

Indeed, with its iTunes marketplace and “600 million user base that pays them for stuff,” Najarian feels Apple “could be Netflix (NFLX), they could be Facebook, they could be all these things, but they’re not aggressive” when it comes to leveraging and growing a user base that actually pays for things like apps and content.

Najarian blames an “ancient” board of directors for not being aggressive, and letting Tim Cook sit there and “twiddle” his thumbs. Apple is sitting on over $140 billion in cash, and the argument could be made that $16 billion for WhatsApp is a little rich, but what about the cost of being too late to the growth game?

“It’s not too late” for Apple to make a move at this point, Najarian says. Indeed, rumors of Apple kicking the tires on Tesla (TSLA) had many investors, and Apple fanboys, giddy for such a merger. But Apple has to do something real, “they have to make moves in social,” Najarian notes, “otherwise they become Microsoft (MSFT).”

Ouch.
【380】
Source: http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/why-apple--not-facebook--should-have-bought-whatsapp-171708376.html

Article 4:

WhatsApp Gives Facebook a Bigger Base in Europe, But What About Asia?

[Time 5]
Facebook's $19 billion deal for WhatsApp gives the social network a big chunk of the mobile messages sent globally. Still, Mark Zuckerberg's quest to connect the entire planet won't be easy.

WhatsApp is based in Mountain View, California, but its real success is outside Silicon Valley. As Zuckerberg has noted, WhatsApp has become an inexpensive replacement for text messaging for many people, and is expected to contribute to Internet.org, the Facebook CEO's pie-in-the-sky initiative to connect the world.

"It doesn't get as much attention in the U.S. as it deserves because its community started off growing in Europe, India and Latin America, but WhatsApp is a very important and valuable worldwide communication network," Zuckerberg said in a conference call. "WhatsApp is the only widely used app we've ever seen that has more engagement and a higher percent of people using it daily than Facebook itself."

WhatsApp currently has 450 million people using the app each month, compared with 945 million people using Facebook apps. Zuckerberg said WhatsApp will probably reach 1 billion users in the next few years.

"Clearly, it's going to be a worldwide, cross-platform app that's popular probably in areas where Facebook isn't, " Brian Blau, a social media analyst at research firm Gartner, said in an interview. "They're buying a large, robust user base that has a varied demographic."

Reliable data on these services are hard to come by, but based on year-old research from Israel-based Onavo, WhatsApp is strongest in Europe — as you can see in a "Risk"-style map that TechCrunch put together in December 2012. WhatsApp has at least doubled in size overall since then, Zuckerberg said on today's call.

But with Facebook buying its way into Europe, as well as India, that still leaves the rest of Asia, which is dominated by local players.
【313】

[Time 6]
South Koreans love KakaoTalk. The app is installed on 93 percent of smartphones in the country, according to Nielsen. Kakao is aiming to hold an initial public offering in South Korea next year, Sonia Im, a spokeswoman for the company, said in an interview. China is dominated by WeChat, owned by the $140 billion behemoth Tencent. The app has more than 230 million users. Japan's favorite messaging service is called Line. There are 300 million registered users collectively paying millions of dollars to send digital stickers to friends via Line. Seriously.

Rakuten, the Japanese online retailer, agreed to spend $900 million on Viber, a popular messaging app in the Middle East. And Eastern Europeans are hopping on Telegram, backed by Pavel Durov, the founder of Russian social network VKontakte.

Facebook may not need to buy up all of these to take over the world. If Zuckerberg sets up just enough bases around the globe, that could pressure everyone else to sign up out of social necessity. He did it before.

"Eventually, the power of the largest global social networks overtake the regional prevalence of the local social networks," Nate Elliott, an analyst at Forrester Research, said in an interview. "We saw the same thing with online social networks. Early on, Facebook was primarily popular in North America and parts of Europe."
【221】

Source: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/whatsapp-gives-facebook-bigger-europe-032156898.html;_ylt=AwrTWf2OGgdTWDkAwIuTmYlQ

kimwang53

Part III: Obstacle

Article 5:

Why Facebook Had To Have WhatsApp

[Time 7]
Facebook will acquire WhatsApp for over $16 billion, according to the company. This is an objectively enormous amount of money, and far more than Facebook offered for Snapchat. But WhatsApp is — or was — arguably the largest known threat to Facebook. It was one of the only services that could plausibly claim to be cannibalizing Facebook on a large scale, and one of a small few that pose to it an existential threat.

It claimed, as of December, to have nearly half as many users as Facebook. This alone would have been enough to get Facebook’s attention, but Facebook, going into 2014, has openly declared itself a mobile company (and by extension, a messaging company). Its future depends on its apps, which include Facebook, Facebook Messenger, Facebook Home, and Instagram — all of which compete directly with WhatsApp.

Facebook reported in January that it had 945 million monthly mobile users, who use the app primary to check News Feed and message each other; WhatsApp currently claims over 450 million monthly active users, who chat with each other, set statuses, set up group chats, send photos and videos, and share voice notes.

It’s a primitive-looking app — maybe even ugly — and it contains no ads. It associates with your phone number and circumvents texting charges; it only takes a few friends to join before its crude, simple appeal is obvious. It feels more immediate than texting and has no messaging limits, which was the key to its early popularity. It’s also quite a bit richer than texting and traditional MMS — you can send almost any media on your phone very quickly — without feeling complicated.

There are other popular messaging apps, and perhaps none is more popular than Facebook’s (if you include the primary FB app). But over the last year, the rise of apps such as WhatsApp, WeChat, Kik, Line, and Viber have left the incumbent tech giants somewhat stunned. No one of these apps is larger than Facebook. But two of them — WhatsApp and WeChat (which is most popular in China) — are almost certainly larger than Twitter. And together, these stripped-down messaging apps have likely collected more users, and now send more messages, than the entirety of Mark Zuckerberg’s portfolio.

The tech giants have so far reacted in different ways. Facebook cloned Snapchat then tried to buy it, both times to no avail. It released a standalone messaging app, however, that has become popular. Instagram added direct messaging to its product and Twitter beefed up its own backchannel service. Google unified all its chat products under the “Hangouts” moniker, the results of which are unclear.

They were, in other words, aware of their new competitors, but it was clear those competitors had taken the driver’s seat, and that the tech giants had lost control of messaging. The most recent version of Facebook Messenger, for example, seems to have taken design cues from WeChat and Line, which most of its American users have never even heard of:

This coordinated rush toward messaging has created the illusion that all the tech giants are copying each other. In reality, they were all responding to the same outside threat: the new school of messaging apps, chief among them WhatsApp. Last year, Forrester research analyst Charles Golvin told BuzzFeed’s Charlie Warzel, “In places like Brazil, Mexico, Spain… 25% of the time people spend on smartphones, they’re spending in WhatsApp. The number is variable for each of those countries, but it is of that magnitude.” These were the numbers that Facebook couldn’t ignore, describing markets where it still has an opportunity to grow.

The knee-jerk response to this news has been that $16 billion, plus $3 billion more in restricted stock units, seems to be too much money. WhatsApp is unfamiliar to many Americans and its revenue plan — a yearly charge of about a dollar a user, after a free grace period — is modest, so this reaction makes some sense. It’s just texting, right?

The most important thing to understand about WhatsApp is just how terrifying it is to a company like Facebook. It can compete with Facebook on its most valuable turf — users’ smartphones and text conversations — without exhibiting aggressive business ambition. It’s drawing from the same limited pool of attention, and accommodating some of Facebook’s most addicting behaviors Facebook claims in its release that WhatsApp is approaching traffic levels comparable to the entirely of global traditional text messaging.

In the process of accommodating these critical behaviors messaging apps threaten to destroy the wealth Facebook and others have become so good at extracting from them. Messaging apps demand attention without creating much revenue; they get the job (of talking to your friends) done and pointedly shun complexity. From a user standpoint, they’re efficient. From a social networking company’s standpoint, they’re worrying. A company like Facebook might view an insurgent messaging app in the way newspapers once viewed Craigslist, as a ruthless and efficient destroyer of value. (From the perspective of a telecom company, for which high captive messaging fees are a major source of profit, they’re a potential nightmare.)

There seems to be a hint of panic, or at least haste, in this purchase. In mid-January, just a few weeks ago, WhatsApp’s founder claimed that it was “here to stay,” and that he wasn’t interested in selling. At the time he had not yet entertained the offer that apparently changed his mind, and which is now being called the largest ever deal of its kind. (His co-founder had posted on Twitter in 2009 about failing to land a job at Facebook: “Looking forward to life’s next adventure,” he wrote.)

The most important companies on the internet spent the last year scrambling to find or become the next great messaging service. Facebook, in particular, had openly declared its obsession with identifying, creating or acquiring the next big thing — the Next Facebook — going so far as to spend $100 million on an analytics service designed to track apps just like WhatsApp, and shutting it down to outside clients.

Today, for a steep price, Facebook just improved its odds.
【1008】

Source：http://www.buzzfeed.com/jwherrman/why-facebook-was-so-terrified-of-whatsapp

kimwang53

3.00
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小蘑菇开始打怪

有微博就是好~
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谢谢楼主！！我发现这个时候首页的战友们都早早写好了！亏我还占了个板凳。。

speaker:

talking about economy forecasting

2 model, one is babs, the other is fisher

babs mainly focus on the data and analyze them to draw some charts

fisher likes to analyze the cautions and what fact economy will have

it is not difficult to do the forecast, it is the selecting and whether to believe the forecast the most difficult part

always make accurate forecast may cause people to be overconfident(?)

time2:2:49

the current function and performance of whatsapp

why Facebook buy whatsapp

time3:2:25

why Z buy whatsapp

mobile company buy other company is intended to combine different apps into a whole control, however Z does not

the current price of per users of whatsapp is lower than other apps

the price is not wrong, the strategy is wrong

time4:2:32

apple should buy whatsapp

whatsapp will sale at a higher price if it choose apple

apple is more suitable for the buying because they all have large group of users

if apple keeps doing things conservational, it will become the second Microsoft

time5:1:32

whatsapp have many users in Europe and the US

time6:1:12

different parts of the world have their favorite apps to chat

if Z want to success, he need to put more effort

time7:7:24

Facebook buy the company which was once its competitor

Facebook is intended to shut down some new apps

Facebook should hold all their users' attention on it in case the users are distracted by other apps

why Facebook offers this big amount of money is that Facebook want to enrage its control

话说有学生党吧。。晚上图书馆关了自习室关了。。回到宿舍是不是就学不了了。。室友看视频不带耳机啊视频啊。。要哭了！难道真的要逼我去走廊嘛就算是北方也好冷的好吧。。呜呜呜。。。

疏离无罪

占~~今天也好早

Speaker:There is no reliable forcast.But the effort to make forecast has really done many great things such as building economic models and founding institution.The role of forecast is making people comfortable about the economy.The speaker raised two people and their theroy.One is B,whose analysis historical economic data and creats a chart.In the chart,economy ups always matches downs and booms always matched bust.He explains his ideas and how his chart works to many people.Although it is not a good one,but everyone need a plan to do investing whether the plan is useful.Another people is Fisher,whose model collapsea and lose all his money.But his idea was spreaded widely and affect many people.One move made in forecast is that fixed business cycles is transfered.Government can make a difference to the business cycle.One dangerous thing in forecast is overconfident and the forecaster who use old data and forecast should know what past people think about their forecast instead of just following. People shouldn't trust all of the forecast.

02:35
It's a bad strategy to buy Whatsapp.Since Facebook is a ad-based social player and Whatsapp is ad-free,this acquisition wouldn't make much money for facebook.And the data and user provided by Whatsapp seems to be useless to Facebook.

02:09
The base of conglomerates is that the companies should have the same business model.Clearly,Facebook and Whatsapp are totally different.So the strategy of Zuckerberg is wrong.But the price of acquisition is acceptable.

02:07
The acquistion made by Mark Zuckerberg is believed to be not wise.And this action hurt Apple most.Apple's conservative policy may make itself in danger.

01:04
The number of Whatsapp's user is growing fast and most of the users is in Europe where Facebook isn't popular.

00:58
But whatsapp is not popluar in Aisa.Korea,Japan and China all have their own mobile message service.

07:28
Main Idea: the reason why Facebook should acquire Whatsapp:the big threat to Facebook from Whatsapp
Whatsapp is the biggest threat to Facebook.And declare itself as mobile company,Facebook released many mobile apps,and most of them compete directly with Whatsapp.And Whatsapp has many advantages,compared to Facebook.
Facebook used to be the most popular messaging app.But now Whatsapp and Wechat are challenging it.Facebook is losing control of messaging app market.Tech giants always react and copy each other.Now they are facing the outside threat:Whatsapp.With the market of Whatsapp grow,it may threat the wealth of Facebook.
So although the 16 billion is a big deal and the revenue plan of Whatsapp is not attractive,the acquistion is worthy.
Facebook is trying to buy next great messaging service- the next Facebook.

awayawei

掉队多年的学渣回来报道，先占个座

Speaker
The author of the book "Fortune Teller: the first economic forecast" explained the backgroud of the first economic forecast emerged at late 19th century and the begining of 20th century.
Bason and Fisher were two pioneers of the first economic forecast. Bason belived trend analysis while Fisher prefered correlation to understand change and factors.
Later in 1930s, Fisher's former students developed a mathmatical way in economic forecast. It enalbed the government to better manange this fixed cycle of economic.
The author thought we should not just believe the forecast but look back to the past data.

Speed
Time2 00:03:31.6 434words
The strategy for Facebook to purchase WhatsApp is flawed as the original intention to attract advertisers may not work.
And the competition is fierce with many competitors like Kik, Line etc.
Furthermore, WhatsApp is most popolar in less-developed regions while Facebook in U.S. and Western Europe. That may not provide the upscale users Facebook needs.

Time3 00:03:07.49 348words
Comparing with Disney collecting similar cable channels to create synergy, Facebook buying competely different WhatsApp seems not to add value.
Although the price to buy WhatsApp is relevently resonable, the strategy of conglomerates is wrong.

Time4 00:02:36.21 380words
Facebook buying WhatsApp intends to grow and also a defensive plan of Apple.
Apple is not aggressive to become social no matter on the consideration of WhatsApp nor the Itune development on mobile.

Time5 00:01:55.76 313words
Facebook buys WhatsApp targeting to leverage its big user base in Europe, India and Latin America. WhatsApp has its advantage of more daily user and faster user growth.
However, there's still gap of Asia market where local player dominate.

Time6 00:01:40.17 221words
Local social apps dominate Asia market, such as Kakao in Korea, WeChat in China and Line in Japan.
Yet Facebook do not need to buy them all if it want to penertrate local market. Some analysts beleive that global social network will overtake the regional ones.

Time7 00:07:32.85 1008words
1. WhatsApp as a leader of mobile social app has challenged the giant position of Facebook.
2. WhatsApp's threat to Facebook lies in users' smartphones and text conversations.
3. Facebook tracks potential apps and shuts them  dowm to outside clients.  

sherlock1992

M.             Thx, Kim!                WhatsApp!!!
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鸢尾yuanwei

抢一个～～～话说第一次抢首页～～～

Thanks Kim~~

Speed
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Obstacle
6'41

xiaofan0205

Thanks

Time2: 3'45"
Facebook is paying $16 billion for mega messaging service WhatsApp, but the author think it is not a good strategy, becase it can not solve Facebook's problem.

Time3: 2'35"
The author also thinks that conglomerates are out of style now and he gives a lot of example to prove it. Meanwhile, he thinks that the money FB payed for WhatsApp is not expensive, but the strategy is wrong.

Time4: 3'20"
Others think what Facebook did is a great defensive play, one that hurts Apple the most. The CEO of WhatsApp think Apple should be more aggressive to do something real.

Time5: 2'22"
WhatsApp has a large munber of users in Europe, India and Latin American, and it will continue to increase in the next few years, but the market of Asia except India is dominated by local players.

Time6: 1'48"
The author introduce seveal different messaging App is different country in Asia. He think Facebook could pressure everyone else to sign up out of social necessity without buying all of these App.

Time7: 8'25"
Draw a big picture of the reason Facebook buy WhatsApp and some details about it. The author think Facebook just improved its odds to the next big thing.