Part II: Speed
Can a Statistical Model Accurately Predict Olympic Medal Counts?
Data miners have developed models that predict countries' medal counts by looking solely at stats like latitude and GDP
By Joseph Stromberg
【Time 2】
If someone asked you to predict the number of medals each country is going to win in this year's Olympics, you'd probably try to identify the favored athletes in each event, then total each country's expected wins to arrive at a result. Tim and Dan Graettinger, the brothers behind the data mining company Discovery Corps, Inc., have a rather different approach. They ignore the athletes entirely. Instead, their model for the Sochi games looks at each country's geographic area, GDP per capita, total value of exports and latitude to determine how many medals each country will win. In case you're wondering, it predicts the U.S. will come out on top, with 29 medals in total. The Graettingers aren't the first to employ this sort of data-driven, top-down approach to predicting medal counts. Daniel Johnson, a Colorado College economics professor, built similar models for the five Olympics between 2000 and 2008—achieving a 94 percent accuracy overall in predicting each country's number of medals—but did not create a model for Sochi. Dan and Tim are newer to the game. Dan—who typically works on more conventional data mining projects, for example predicting a company's potential customers—first got interested in using models to predict competitions four years ago, during the Vancouver Winter Olympics. "I use data about the past to predict the future all the time," he says. "Every night, they'd show the medal count on TV, and I started wondering if we could predict it." Even though the performances of individual athletes can vary unpredictably, he reasoned, there might be an overall relationship between a country's fundamental characteristics (its size, climate and amount of wealth, for instance) and the number of medals it would likely take home. This sort of approach wouldn't be able to say which competitor might win a given event, but with enough data, it might be able to accurately predict the aggregate medal counts for each country. 【332 words】
【Time 3】
Initially, he and his brother set to work developing a preliminary model for the 2012 London games. To begin, they collected a wide range of different types of data sets, on everything from a country's geography to its history, religion, wealth and political structure. Then, they used regression analyses and other data-crunching methods to see which variables had the closest relationship with historical data on Olympic medals. They found that, for the summer games, a model that incorporated a country's gross domestic product, population, latitude and overall economic freedom (as measured by the Heritage Foundation's index) correlated best with each country's medal counts for the previous two summer Olympics (2004 and 2008). But at that point, their preliminary model could only predict which countries would win two or more medals, not the number of medals per country. They decided to improve it for the Sochi games, but couldn't rely on their previous model, because the countries that are successful in the winter differ so greatly from summer. Their new Sochi model tackles the problem of predicting medal counts in two steps. Because about 90 percent of countries have never won a single Winter Olympics medal (no Middle Eastern, South American, African or Caribbean athlete has ever won), it first separates the ten percent that are likely to win at least one, then predicts how many each one will win. "Some trends are pretty much what you'd expect—as a country's population gets bigger, there's more of a likelihood that it'll win a medal," Tim says. "Eventually, though, you need some more powerful statistical machinery that can grind through a lot of variables and rank them in terms of which are the most predictive." Eventually, they came upon a few variables that accurately separate the ninety percent of non medal-winning countries from the ten percent that will likely win: these included migration rate, number of doctors per capita, latitude, gross domestic product and whether the country had won a medal in the previous summer games (no country had ever won a winter medal without winning one the previous summer, in part because the pool of summer winners is so much larger than the winter one). By running this model on the past two Winter Olympics, this model determined which nations took home a medal with 96.5 percent accuracy. [387 words]
【Time 4】
With 90 percent of the countries eliminated, the Graettingers used similar regression analyses to create a model that predicted, retroactively, how many medals each remaining country won. Their analysis found that a slightly different list of variables best fit the historical medal data. These variables along with predictions for the Sochi games are below: Some of the variables that turned out to be correlative aren't a huge shock—it makes sense that higher-latitude countries do better at the events played during the winter games—but some were more surprising. "We thought population, not land area, would be important," Dan says. They're unsure why geographic area ends up fitting the historical data more closely, but it might be because a few high population countries that don't win winter medals (like India and Brazil) throw off the data. By using land area instead, the model avoids these countries' outsized influence, but still retains a rough association with population, because on the whole, countries with larger areas do have larger populations. Of course, the model isn't perfect, even in matching historical data. "Our approach is the 30,000-foot approach. There are variables we can't account for," Tim says. Some countries have repeatedly outperformed the model's predictions (including South Korea, which wins a disproportionate amount of short-track speed skating events) while others consistently underperform (such as the U.K., which seems to do far better at summer events that would be expected, perhaps because—despite its latitude—it gets far more rain than snow). Additionally, a consistent exception they've found to the model's predictions is that the host country bags more medals than it would otherwise, based simply on the data. Both Italy (during the 2006 Turin games) and Canada (during the 2010 Vancouver games) out-performed the model, with Canada setting its all-time record in winning 14 golds. Still, based on their statistically-rigorous approach, the Graettingers are confident that on the whole, their model will predict the final medal counts with a relatively high degree of accuracy. How do their predictions compare to those of experts that use more conventional strategies? The experts don't differ dramatically, but they do have a few traditionally-successful countries (Norway, Canada, Russia) winning higher numbers of medals, along with a few others (China, the Netherlands, Australia) each winning a few fewer. To date, the Graettingers haven't put down any bets on their predictions, but they do plan on comparing their model's output to the betting odds just before the games kick off. If they see any discrepancies they'd like to exploit, they might end up putting their money where their mouth is. [431 words]
Source: Smithsonian
http://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/can-statistical-model-accurately-predict-olympic-medal-counts-180949627/
Google makes a point on gay rights at Sochi Games
BY TIMOTHY HERITAGE
SOCHI, Russia Fri Feb 7, 2014 2:39am EST
【Time 5】
(Reuters) - Google has placed a rainbow version of its logo on its search page, increasing pressure on President Vladimir Putin over Russia's "gay propaganda" law at the Sochi Winter Olympics. The page now shows a winter sports competitor above each of the six letters in the U.S. Internet giant's name, set against backgrounds in the six colors on the gay pride flag - red, orange, yellow, green, blue and purple. The page also includes a quote from the Olympic charter underlining the right to practise sport without discrimination. "The practice of sport is a human right. Every individual must have the possibility of practicing sport, without discrimination of any kind and in the Olympic spirit, which requires mutual understanding with a spirit of friendship, solidarity and fair play," it says. Google Inc. did not immediately comment. The international outcry over the law, signed by Putin last year, threatens to undermine his hopes of using the Games to portray Russia as a modern state that has come a long way since the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991. Putin says the legislation, banning gay propaganda among minors, is needed to protect young people. Critics says it fosters a climate of discrimination against lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender (LGBT) groups. Telecoms company AT&T, a sponsor of the U.S. Olympic team, criticized Russia this week over the law, increasing pressure on other companies to speak out. [233 words]
【Time 6】
The Human Rights Campaign, an LGBT rights organization, praised Google for what it called a move to show solidarity with LGBT Russians and visiting athletes.
"Google has once again proven itself to be a true corporate leader for equality," HRC President Chad Griffin said. "Alongside Olympic sponsors like AT&T, Google has made a clear and unequivocal statement that Russia's anti-LGBT discrimination is indefensible. Now it's time for each and every remaining Olympic sponsor to follow their lead. The clock is ticking, and the world is watching." PRESSURE ON SPONSORS Companies including McDonald's, Coca-Cola and Procter & Gamble pay around $100 million each for rights to sponsor the Olympics over a four-year period and want to tap into a feel-good atmosphere during the Games. These companies are also facing pressure to speak out over the "gay propaganda" law. "These brands have spent millions to align themselves with the Olympics, but have repeatedly refused to support the founding principles of the Games," Andre Banks, one of the founders of gay rights group All Out, said earlier this week. United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon condemned sexual discrimination and attacks on homosexuals in a speech to the International Olympic Committee in Sochi on Thursday which also drew attention to Russia's record on gay rights. Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Kozak said shortly afterwards in Sochi that there would be no discrimination at the Games, due to open later on Friday. "We're all grown-ups and every adult has the right to understand their sexuality," Kozak said. But, echoing a remark by Putin, he added: "Please do not touch kids." [263 words]
Source: Reuters
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/02/07/us-olympics-gay-idUSBREA160AX20140207
Decoding the Anti-Gay Messages in the Olympics Opening Ceremony
By June Thomas
[Time 7]
Sochi may be 850 miles from Moscow’s Red Square, but Kremlinology—the art of deducing major news developments from almost imperceptible signals, as perfected at the May Day parades of the Soviet era—was alive and well at the Opening Ceremony of the 22nd Winter Olympics. Many of us approached the spectacle wondering if the carefully choreographed event would include any commentary on Russia’s hideously homophobic “gay propaganda” legislation. In truth, explicit criticism of the Russian law was scarce. In his welcoming speech, IOC President Thomas Bach stressed the importance of “embracing diversity,” which isn’t exactly a radical statement. Nevertheless, his words were seized upon as a coded rebuke to Putin and co. (Others suggested he was directing his shade at the world leaders who stayed away from Sochi to protest the law.) Otherwise, the gay elements in the Opening Ceremony were probably visible only to those of us who are primed to see rainbows everywhere: It was in the bodies of the male ballet dancers (especially when they mimed playing the flute), in the music of gay composer Peter Tchaikovsky, in the rainbows on the German team’s uniforms, and in the very name of the Olympic flame. (Or maybe not. My colleague Simon Doonan found the entire spectacle profoundly, utterly, gloriously gay.) Those of us alert to coded statements also noted the presence of Yelena Isinbayeva in the final group of athletes to carry the Olympic torch. Isinbayeva is indeed a great pole vaulter (a sport that appears in the Summer Olympics, it should be noted), and her trophy cabinet includes two Olympic golds, but she has also gained notoriety for an anti-gay attitude. At the 2013 World Championships, when asked about the anti-gay law, she said of her fellow Russians: “We consider ourselves as traditional people, when men live with women. If we will allow to promote and do all this stuff on the streets, we are very afraid for our nation.” (She later said she was misunderstood and blamed her poor English.) Isinbayeva’s presence in the final six has been overshadowed by that of Putin’s alleged mistress, former rhythmic gymnast and current Duma member Alina Kabaeva, and another former champion and current Duma member, pairs skater Irina Rodnina, who is now better known as the woman who tweeted a racist picture of President Barack Obama and the first lady. On second thought, maybe you don’t need to be a paranoid Kremlinologist to decode the messages that the Russians were transmitting in this Opening Ceremony. [417 words]
Source: Slate
http://www.slate.com/blogs/outward/2014/02/07/olympics_opening_ceremony_the_anti_gay_messages.html
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