01:40.90
01:32.98
01:29.19
02:22.72
02:27.39
07:07.74 Two economicists are award the Nobel Prize,they are in oppsite views about the asset price.--Mr.Fama's study.he thinks the market are efficient.--Mr. Shiller's study .--contrast the differece--Mr Hansen's study.
Time 2 2:40 mins it seems reasonable that three professors share the Nobel price together this year, because they all focus on the issue of understanding why such prices can move. Mr Fama's revolutionary notion is great.
Time 3 1:50mins Mr Shiller's theory about share prices and intrinsic value. Investors usually get more excited when seeing financial assets prices increase, in regardless of assets's intrinsic value.
Time 4 1:54mins Greenspan points out it's difficult to stop bubbles with higher interest rate. Inversely, bubblers would become bigger by increasing interest rate. Investors should be warned after understanding Mr Shiller's theory.
Time 5 2:24mins Fed has large effects on the economy but may not cause the depression. What Fed did is fair but not enough.
Time 6 2:50mins The monetary policy needs to be improved to face more challenges in the future.
Obstacle 8:00mins The three winners of the Nobel prices have different views about assets price.
想问问timer5
wait,wait ,wait.no,it doesn't 否定的是什么观点呢
上文说推断出F无法断定出Great depression不合理
后面是P的一段话
But I don’t see how you can deny that making monetary policy effective has been far harder since we hit the ZLB than it was before, and that this retroactively casts great doubt on Friedman’s claims that the Fed could easily have prevented the Great Depression.
意思是我们必须承认货币政策有效的难度增加了，而且Fed不在能够轻易的阻止萧条了
这篇文章到底是什么意思啊，全文的逻辑是什么呢？望解答
time:2:03.40
The Nobel Price this year should award to these three economists who study the asset prices and markets.
Fama's reasearch(believe in efficient market,seems to contradict with another economist's idea-irrational model)
Biggest insight:investors take new information togethor to make decisions and invest.So it is unpredictable of prices in the short term.Provide bases for small investors to diverse portfolio in low costs.
Some limitations:use a slightly flawed model(?)
_____
time:1:32.79
The research of Shiller.
The relationship between prices and their intrinsic value.
Prices are more volatile.But is predictable in the long run.(not controdict to F's idea--short term,unable to predict)
The reason:financail products are different from normal products--prices increase--demand increase--people will not have the motivation to put prices back to the normal base.
The data and history events to support this idea.
__________
time:1:39.37
Fed thinks that it is impossible to spot bubbles when people are in the bubbles.And use interest rates to control the situation will harm the economy rather than do good to economy.But actually Fed has used this strategy to control the situation.
S's theory is underestimated by people.People should take S's theory seriously and use this theory to decide their investments.
________
time:2:36.27
Try to find the role Fed played in the Great Depression and other periods of economic events(monetary policy's impact and efficiency--whether Frideman disdignosed the Fed's role in Great Depression)
Old:naive frideman--money supply is the simple core of his theory and the Great Depression is caused by money policy
New:frideman did consider other factors,not asserted that only monetary problems are the reason of Great Depression
________
time:2:05.02
The author thinks that Fed should use monetary policy(agressvie)rather than fiscal stimulus to raise inflation expectiations.
________
time:6:32.24
The introduction of these three economists' theory.
F and S seems controdict to each other.
F:efficient market theory.the market reacts quickly to new infromation and reflect the changes.thus is unpredictable in short terms.no one can gain permenant profis.can reveal a long trend(may become predictable in long run)
S:unefficient market.prices are more volatile than dividents.can predict becasue they can not react quickly.can forseen.behavior and psycology may also play a role.
H:statistic models.use variables to analyse the assets' prices.utilize the information efficiently.
People still know very little about the prices of assets in markets.
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发表于 2013-10-26 00:09:46
，占座！