【每日阅读训练第四期——速度越障24系列】【24-19】经管 Greenspan

sissiyu

谢谢楼主，好像漏了一天，罪过罪过。。。
Warm up 1’46
-        Introduce Alan Greenspan and his career

Time 2   3’07
-        The author’s evaluation on Greenspan：
On the surface: America’s economic performance has been remarkable on his watch
   On closer inspection: Mr. Greenspan’s record looks less impressive

Time 3   2’12
-        Defend Greenspan’s achievement: his policies make America’s current-account deficit to swell and make America experienced the biggest stockmarket and housing bubbles in history

Time 4   1’48
-        Arguments are given by Greenspan and his colleagues for why central banks should ignore asset prices other than their impact on inflation

Time 5   2’21
-        Analysis of Greenspan’s three arguments:
First: The job of a central bank is not just to prevent inflation, but also to insure financial insurance
Second: Uncertainly is a reason for responding cautiously, but not for doing nothing

Time 6   2’14
-        Analysis of Greenspan’s three arguments:
Third: examples of England, Australia and New Zealand to prove that Greenspan was wrong

Time 7   7’10
-        Main idea: Fed’s monetary policies played a role in fostering bubbles
-        Author’s attitude: negative
-        monetary policies can contribute to the inflating of bubbles
-        Ben Bernanke believes that interest rates should not respond to movements in asset prices unless they affect the forecast inflation
-        The main objective of monetary policies was full employment, not inflation
-        Greenspan had done nothing to solve the economic problems

张茹ava

占个座，一定补上！

lisa_chan

Sunday [24-19]
   速度
Time2 2‘15 [415]

Time3 1‘56 330[]

Time4 1‘48 [307]

Time5 1’59 [337]

Time6 141‘ [379]

越障
Time7 7‘19 [1153] 好难懂。。。
- Greenspan’s asset price policy is flawed.
- Pragmatists
     - Fed’s monetary policy is loose.
     - Changes are sutble.
-Who will save us?
     - Ben Bernanke’s policy is different.
- Parting of the way.
       感觉这篇的专业知识比较多，信息太大了。

michellewwt

1'20: Introduction of AG-->the fedual reserve chairman from 1987-2006.
The democratic leaders of Congress criticize his tax cut and support for SS privatization cause the mortage crisis.

2'50
AG gains universal praise, but whether the praise is worth?
Positive:At the early of his tenure, he met some difficulities, but during his tenure, he reduced the inflation, saved the country from potential recession,increased GDP.
Negative:The other countries inflation also reduce at the same time.
The increase GDP is not becasue of the monetary policy but becasue of the structural factors.

2'17
The gap between actual and potential output shows there is only one-tenth of the increase economy can be attributed to the policy of AG.
Although during the AG's watch,there is a short-term gain in economy,it cost long term cost.
And there is bubble during his tenure.

2'01
How G act to deal with the bubble?
AG suggests to wait for the bubble to burst by itself for three reasons.

2'51
dispute G's argument above.
1.The asset inflation is as harmful as conventional inflation.
2.there are many signs for a bubble.
3.to be caustious is not to do nothing.

2'30
G calims he can do little as the interest rate is a blunt tool. But othe countires raise interest rate to adjust the inflation.

9'46

AceJ

Monetary myopia
Time2: 3'18" Greenspan's great records: low inflation, longest expansion; but in closer inspection, these records are not so impressive because of global disinflationary pressures and faster population growth and more flexible labor and product market
Time3: 3'01" the America's growth performance was lower than potential; Greenspan got a short term gain in a long term cost
Time4: 2'18" in terms of stock market or house market bubble, Greenspan thought it was safer to wait for a bubble to burst by itself and then ease monetary policy to soften a downturn
Time5: 3'02" first, central banks should also pay attention to asset prices; second, monetary policies are always doing uncertainty
Time6: 2'51" what other central banks had done was increasing interest rates

Time7: 8'03"
Members of FOMC had responded to surging house prices in similar ways, and the deepest flaw in Greenspan's policy towards asset prices is its asymmetry
However, Mr. Greenspan's public pronouncements on asset prices seem to have changed subtly
Ben Bernanke, his successor, believes that interest rates should not respond to movements in asset prices unless they affect forecast inflation
Greenspan's policies have encouraged drunk and disorderly asset markets and intoxicated consumers, but Mr. Bernanke is keen to introduce a formal inflation target, reducing the Fed's room to respond to asset prices

Lynsey玲

Warmup 1:50
Introduction of Greenspan.

TIME2 03:01
G won many awards,but whether he deserve them?--->on the surface,great contribution--->closer inspection:less impressive

TIME3 02:47
comparison of Us economy with other OECD countries--->low proportion of economic growth can be attributed to monetary policy--->views of G's supporters-->opposite view:it is too soon to applaud G's record

TIME4 02:40
G's response to stockmarket bubble--->G's three arguments

TIME5+6 06:12
Comments on G's three comments.
Usong examples tp argue against G's arguments.

chibomen

Speed:
2:34
Greenspan is viewed as a man with magic which help American economy grow fastly.At the earliy of his tenure, the economy situation is not very well.
2:40
Mr Greenspan during his tenue use monetary policy to reduce inflation and help workers back to be employed, however, on the other sides, the policy cause some problems.
2:08
whether the monetary policy is not just to help economy out from deep recession but to build a fundation for future. Mr.Greenspan viewed it as a good way to decrease current bubbles and ...
2:36
What should central bank do when facing bubbles?
2:38
The author thinks Greenspan's idea is wong on some parts and concludes that high assert price is alway accompanying with rapid grow money and credit.
晚上继续～～
Obstacle:
7:17
迷失在细节里～～～～～555555～～～～～
Main Point:Greenspan's policy has bad inffluence.
Author 's attitude"
Negative
Structure:
-Relationship between asset price and bank rate
-The author strongly critize Greenspan's policy and leading of economy

大叮田

文章有点拖沓啊
3.12
2.41
2.06
3.20
2.25
9.08

0412501

1”14
2”52
2”26
2”04
2”28
2”23
8”48
The author does not agree on Mr. Greenspan’s monetary policy toward rising asset’s prices, pointing out that Central banks increase interest rate to constrain rising assets prices.

Reasoning: Increasing interest rate should be a power tool to control assets prices. If the interest rate is too low, while the assets prices are too high, investors will take the biggest risk to invest money on assets, leading to an even bigger bubble.

Result: Consumer expenditure will rely on an unsustainable asset increase, leading to a fragile economy.

tsun9920

9/15
58'[180]Greenspan is going to retired from the position of chairman in FED. He has been awarded with a great many of honors.
This article is talking about whether he deserves those honors.
In the beginning of his tenure, US economy faced recession. Later, on the surface, US economy has improved under his management.
But his performance is not so impressive,and it is foreign central banks that smooths the economy cycle.


2'24'' [415]In fact , compared with other OECD countries, US has a greater gap between the potential output and the actual one.
Some people believe that Greenspan's monetary policy helped to improve the economy of US.
However, the price for those performances(low rate of unemployment etc.) is the long-term depression, such as current-account deficit, stock market and housing bubbles etc.
The monetary policy is too aggressive.


2'16''[330]Mr. Greenspan did not restrain the assets bubble; he let it burst and then cut the interest rate to offset the damage it caused. The responsibility of central bank should be to ensure that the foundation of economy is steady.  
There are three arguments for why central banks should ignore asset prices other than their impact on inflation.

2'14''[307]The article discusses the counter-arguments to the above three arguments provided by Greenspan  and his colleagues.
The job of central bank does not limit to controlling inflation; it should maintain a stable economy. In some circumstances, even the rate of inflation is low, the economy could be bad.
Greenspan's definition of inflation is too narrow.
The current-assets bubble could cause severe consequences.
It is not impossible to identify bubbles. There are many signs can be used to do so. Moreover, it is not a necessity for central banks to identify bubble before act.

2'02''[377]The third claim is that even the bubble is identified, central bank cannot do too much to control it, because interest rate is a blunt tool. But the point is we do not need to target a certain level of assets price.
Raising the interest rate by a little bit more than inflation would helps.

2'06''[379]Many foreign central banks have exactly raising the interest rate to restrain the price of current-assets. Even a little increase will solve the problem.
Central banks should not ignore the current-assets boom , even though the inflation is low. They need to employ tighten policy to restrain the boom before it is too late.

7'48'' [1153]
Greenspan's policy encourages the unrealistic expectation of investors on profits, leading to a higher price of stock share.
One flaw in G's policy is its asymmetry. The interest rate is always be cut but never be boost. It causes bigger risks, making those bubbles become even bigger.  

G's policy is pragmatist but not purist.  The policy is overly loosening. His public pronouncement on assets price has changed subtly. The approach to solve this problem
is a tightening monetary policy.
Housing bubble is more severe than stock bubble.It will lead to financial instability. Someone introduced a formal inflation target that might reduce FED's room to respond to Assets Price.