A14 求狠拍！

nocky

"A recent study rating 300 male and female advertising executives according to the average number of hours they sleep per night showed an association between the amount of sleep the executives need and the success of their firms. Of the advertising firms studied, those whose executives reported needing no more than six hours of sleep per night had higher profit margins and faster growth. On the basis of this study, we recommend that businesses hire only people who need less than six hours of sleep per night."
Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.

1、调查不科学
2、忽略他因
3、同时出现不等于有因果关系
4、草率推广、导致不利后果

In the article the author recommends that businesses hire people who need less than six hours of sleep per night. To support this recommendation, the author cites a recent study involved advertising which establishes a correlation between the sleeping amount of executives and the success of a firm. However reasonable the deduction looks at first glance, this recommendation relies on several unsubstantiated assumptions, which render it invalid as it stands.


A threshold problem with the argument is that the author assumes the study, on which the whole reasoning based, is scientific. As the detailed selection procedure is not given in the argument, it is quite reasonable for us to cast doubt on it and the subsequent conclusion. The executives participates the study may come from the same city, or otherwise the same firm’s subcompanies, which means the representativeness and the randomness of the sample is problematic. Without ruling out these and other possibilities, the study lends no support to the argument.


The author assumes unfairly that no other factors except sleeping amount can affect the success of a firm. However, common sense tells us the success of business depends on a lot of elements. Perhaps it is the growing world economy during a certain period that leads to the prosperity of those advertising firms. Also, the abolishment of a policy, which has hampered the expansion of advertising for years, may be the right key to their success. Therefore, the recommendation rests on such an unlikely assumption is unwarranted. Lacking sufficient evidence the author can not justify hiring specific kind of employees will boom the business.


What’s more, the fact that less sleeping amount of executives coincides with the success of firms does not necessarily prove that the former causes the latter. The author actually establishes an assumed correlation between them without citing any solid evidence. But it is highly possible that the latter---some common characteristics of successful firms lead to the former, rather than what the author indicates. The executives’ less sleeping amount in high-profit firms may greatly decided by strict rules and regulations, or piles of cases they have to deal with daily.


Even if the foregoing assumptions can all be substantiated, still, it is hasty to make a universal recommendation that firms, in order to thrive, should only hire people who need less than six hours of sleep per night. And this recommendation is suffering from logical flaws in two respects. First, the evidence and the reasoning in the article merely focus on advertising firms. In other words, the author overlooks the diversity among various businesses and assumes advertising firms only are enough to represent the overall situation. It is definitely untrue. Second, the author neglects the negative outgrowth this recommendation may bring when adopted. Truly, people who need less sleep work longer, however, longer time does not always come together with high efficiency. If employees are all in poor efficiency, the company may anticipate an even lower profit, considering extra work cost extra money. Besides lacking of sleep always drag people into low spirit. A company full of low employees can hardly see a bright future.


To sum up, the author’s recommendation is unpersuasive as it stands. To strengthen it, he or she needs to do a more scientific and comprehensive research, and to provide more detailed and reliable evidence, such as statistics of sleeping amount and profits in different businesses and areas.

普渡哥

结尾可以更多地概括一下。我觉得写得挺好的。

ppguo

我觉得这边的关键点是：不是因为睡6个小时所以才能成功，而是因为努力工作才能成功。很可能因为很努力所以才睡6个小时。

nocky

嗯嗯~ 多谢普渡哥指点！~

nocky

我觉得这边的关键点是：不是因为睡6个小时所以才能成功，而是因为努力工作才能成功。很可能因为很努力所以才睡6个小时。

-- by 会员 ppguo (2012/8/10 7:34:22)

嗯，这条我给忘了~ 多谢提醒！~

hujie227

还有就是  被调查的人 说的是不是真话。。也许是为了 显示自己努力工作  或者能给别人一个好印象 或者 给领导一个号印象才说不到6小时。。但是实际上  你懂得  偷着玩 哈哈

nocky

还有就是  被调查的人 说的是不是真话。。也许是为了 显示自己努力工作  或者能给别人一个好印象 或者 给领导一个号印象才说不到6小时。。但是实际上  你懂得  偷着玩 哈哈

-- by 会员 hujie227 (2012/8/10 21:21:57)

嗯，这点可以加到调查的科学性里，显得不那么模板啦~~ 多谢拍打！~