[揽瓜阁精读] 140.Escalation Bias

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P1 + P2: 介绍Staw的Study on Escalation Bias

• Staw 1976的study on escalation bias: manager reinvest projects that have gone poorly.
• Manager believe that other managers suffer from escalation bias.
• explain P1 提到的 study
• Manager tend to invest more in projects had not done well
  

P3: 介绍ACS的Study on Escalation Bias

• ACS三位重新研究这个study，并变更了context
• R&D investment -> Advertising investment or product design investment
• Dates -> contemporary
• Result: Did not support the original findings. Escalation bias did not generalize to these market decisions
  

P4: 对比分析两种studies，并用 ACS 反驳了 Staw

• 一方面：ACS 和 Staw的study结果不完全冲突，ACS进一步定义了escalation bias generalize 的limits
• 另一方面：ACS shows that research findings about escalation bias are not generalizable
• ACS的结论：Staw 的study设计不合理，对manager无用
• Supports on ACS结论：实验对象没有receive enough info on future profitability for rational decision