新手第一次argument，求更正，以后继续更新

rogercctv

he following appeared in a letter from a firm providing investment advice for a client.

"Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last heating season that region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth. Because of these trends, we predict an increased demand for heating oil and recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil."

Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.

rogercctv

Perhaps,we should invest in the Consolidated Industries,just judging from what the arguer says in the passage.In fact,however,the arguer’s arguments may have some hidden or obvious factors to think again wether we could invest it.
The residents,who live in the northeastern U.S,where winter are typically cold,use oil heating .But those new people moved there  may not use oil heating.They have their own habits such as electric heating,and would not change the way for heating.Even if ,new people also use oil heating,If there are 2000 or more native residents there and just 200 or less new people ,the need for oil consumption will not be effected.
Moreover,the arguer do not state wether the cold weather is the only factor to influence the need for oil.The price of the oil ,the income of the family,the consumption of other source for heating,all of the above will have a strong influence on the consumption of oil.The high price of oil and limited income of family will reduce the consumption of oil.
Additionally,though,all of people live there no matter the native people or new people use oil for heating ,it can not illustrate the local people will only use oil all the time,they may use electric heating or natural gas which is popular because of environmental protection.So,Even if the weather is getting colder,it is not necessary boost total consumption of oil.
The arguer recommended to invest in Consolidated industries ,because it’s the major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil.While ,the arguer do not state the market competition.For example,there is another dealer sell heating oil which of price is lower and quality higher,as a result ,the local people will buy it’s oil .
To sum up, the conclusion lacks of credibility. The arguer overlooked or chosen to ignore many aspects of his or her conclusion. To strengthen the conclusion, the author should give more evidences about the above-mentioned possibilities.

普渡哥

第一点和第三点有点重复。

rogercctv

普渡哥 发表于 2013-5-15 10:34
第一点和第三点有点重复。

总体结构和写法上符合instruction的要求吗？这是最关键的，内容可以多次修改，但是结构和写法不能错啊。谢谢普度哥