【Native Speaker每日综合训练—26系列】【26-18】经管

TaoRs92

感谢！今天的材料特别好~然后把上星期读的诺奖的信息又从脑袋里面提出来。不过今天的材料让我对三人有了一个更清楚的认识~不过流动性陷阱那篇有点难懂。。

time:2:03.40
The Nobel Price this year should award to these three economists who study the asset prices and markets.
Fama's reasearch(believe in efficient market,seems to contradict with another economist's idea-irrational model)
Biggest insight:investors take new information togethor to make decisions and invest.So it is unpredictable of prices in the short term.Provide bases for small investors to diverse portfolio in low costs.
Some limitations:use a slightly flawed model(?)
_____
time:1:32.79
The research of Shiller.
The relationship between prices and their intrinsic value.
Prices are more volatile.But is predictable in the long run.(not controdict to F's idea--short term,unable to predict)
The reason:financail products are different from normal products--prices increase--demand increase--people will not have the motivation to put prices back to the normal base.
The data and history events to support this idea.
__________
time:1:39.37
Fed thinks that it is impossible to spot bubbles when people are in the bubbles.And use interest rates to control the situation will harm the economy rather than do good to economy.But actually Fed has used this strategy to control the situation.
S's theory is underestimated by people.People should take S's theory seriously and use this theory to decide their investments.
________
time:2:36.27
Try to find the role Fed played in the Great Depression and other periods of economic events(monetary policy's impact and efficiency--whether Frideman disdignosed the Fed's role in Great Depression)
Old:naive frideman--money supply is the simple core of his theory and the Great Depression is caused by money policy
New:frideman did consider other factors,not asserted that only monetary problems are the reason of Great Depression
________
time:2:05.02
The author thinks that Fed should use monetary policy(agressvie)rather than fiscal stimulus to raise inflation expectiations.
________
time:6:32.24
The introduction of these three economists' theory.
F and S seems controdict to each other.
F:efficient market theory.the market reacts quickly to new infromation and reflect the changes.thus is unpredictable in short terms.no one can gain permenant profis.can reveal a long trend(may become predictable in long run)
S:unefficient market.prices are more volatile than dividents.can predict becasue they can not react quickly.can forseen.behavior and psycology may also play a role.
H:statistic models.use variables to analyse the assets' prices.utilize the information efficiently.
People still know very little about the prices of assets in markets.