[揽瓜阁逻辑小分队] day104

PBkk

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PBkk

Day 104
1.        鱼和水污染
一个州长提名 A 竞选 州长， 而之前有前任州长提名的人选在大选中 赢了。所以得出结论这次这个获得州长提名的人赢的可能性也很大。Flaw相关因果
前任州长提名的人中，并不代表这次就会中。用前次结论比拟这次，而关系并不统一。
Weaken:
原理：他因：赢的原理和州长提名没关系；
因果关系：州长提名大多数不会赢


2.        农民种柑橘
农民在果园里种柑橘，柑橘晚上的时候经常掉，导致产量减少，一 个政府就想要开发果园周围的 wetland 来种柑橘，但是农民纷纷反对，问原因。

C: 农民纷纷反对
Weaken:
原理：
否定性副作用：副作用导致现有的柑橘产量进一步降低
可操作性：wetland因为某种元素导致更不能种柑橘

3.        犯罪率
The violent crime rate (number of violent crimes per 1,000 residents) in Meadowbrook is 60 percent higher now than it was four years ago. The corresponding increase for Parkdale is only 10 percent. These figures support the conclusion that residents of Meadowbrook are more likely to become victims of violent crime than are residents of Parkdale.
The argument above is flawed because it fails to take into account
A.        Changes in the population density of both Meadowbrook and Parkdale over the past four years.
B.        How the rate of population growth in Meadowbrook over the past four years compares to the corresponding rate for Parkdale
C.        The ratio of violent to nonviolent crimes committed during the past four years in Meadowbrook and Parkdale
D.        The violent crime rates in Meadowbrook and Parkdale four years ago
E.        How Meadowbrooks’ expenditures for crime prevention over the past four years compare to Parkdale’s expenditures.




P: violent crime rate： M增长60%，P增长10%
C: M的居民更容易受到伤害


Weaken：
- 原理：增长量和绝对量取决于基数：如果基数低，则不一定新的绝对数大；有可能victims of M 一直都是同一拨人