第三篇...写来写去就是一个套路, 句式也完全一样,sigh 看了一下别人写的文章, 第一个攻击的就是没得病的原因并不一定是锻炼, 我这里是没有写这个的. 这点是不是很强的攻击点, 加上它会好一些? 谢谢rio..
AA112. The following appeared in a memo to the Saluda town council from the town’s business manager. “Research indicates that those who exercise regularly are hospitalized less than half as often as those who don’t exercise. By providing a well-equipped gym for Saluda’s municipal employees, we should be able to reduce the cost of our group health insurance coverage by approximately 50% and thereby achieve a balanced town budget.” Saluda镇的商业管理者给镇议会的备忘录: 研究显示有规律地锻炼的人生病的概率比不运动的人要小一半。通过给Saluda的市政雇员提供一个设备良好的体育馆,我们应该可以大约减少50%的健康保险支出并得到平衡的镇预算。
In this argument the author concludes that Saluda town should provide a well-equipped gym for its municipal employees to reduce its group health insurance cost. The author’s line of reasoning is: Because research indicates that those who exercise regularly are hospitalized less than half as often as those who don’t exercise, thus by providing such well-equipped gym can reduce the health insurance cost by approximately 50%, consequently Saluda can achieve a balanced town budget. This conclusion is not very convincing for a couple of reasons.
First, the author asserts that proving a well-equipped gym for Saluda’s municipal employees can reduce the cost of group health insurance. However the author did not provide any evidence to prove it. What if Saluda already has a well-equipped gym, but it was seldom used by municipal employees? If most of the employees do not want to spend their time to exercise at the gym rather than go home earlier, then even well-equipped gym can work little for employee’s health. Consequently, adding new gym can not work well either.
Second, even if it is granted that the municipal employees are likely to exercise at this newly provided gym, we can not logically conclude that providing gym can reduce approximately 50% of group health insurance. It is only general probability that those who exercise regularly are hospitalized less than half as often as those who don’t exercise, and it is totally different between probability of illness and health cost. Both common sense and our experiences with illness inform us that the costs of catching twice flu are far away from the cost of treating lung cancer once.
Third, even if providing a well-equipped gym can attract employees to exercise regularly, and can reduce costs of group health insurance by 50%, we can not logically conclude that the government can achieve balanced town budget either. According to 2005 World Health Report of WHO, world average percentage of general government expenditure on health in total government expenditure is about 10%, and we can know that insurance costs are only one part of government expenditure, not most of important part. Because we do not know anything about Saluda’s government budget status, we hardly expect that reducing 50% of insurance costs can help to balance town budget. Thus this over rosy prospect is highly doubtful. Without overall detailed cost-profit analysis, we can not logically conclude the relationship between cost reduce of health insurance and town budget, thus we can not know whether providing well-equipped gym can help to achieve balanced town budget or not.
In conclusion, this argument is not well reasoned. To make it logically acceptable, the author would demonstrate that the newly provided gym surely helps to reduce the group insurance costs, and reduced insurance costs surely help to achieve budget balance through thorough cost-profit analysis. Only with more convincing evidence could this argument become more than just an emotional appeal.
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