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11.“In the first four years that Montoya has served as mayor of the city of San Perdito, the population has decreased and the unemployment rate has increased. Two businesses have closed for each new business that has opened. Under Varro, who served as mayor for four years before Montoya, the unemployment rate decreased and the population increased. Clearly, the residents of San Perdito would be best served if they voted Montoya out of office and reelected Varro.”
11. 地方性报纸的编者按：
在Montoya当San Perdito市长的头4年里，人口下降而失业率上升。每当一个新企业开业，就有两个旧的关门。而在Montoya之前Uarro当市长的4年里，失业率下降人口增长。很明显，San Perdito的居民重新选举Varro而非Montoya会得到更好的服务。
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In this argument the author concludes that Varro will better serve the residents of SanPerdito if they voted Montoya out of office and elected Varro again. To support this conclusion, the author argues that the phenomenon of unemployment rate, the population and the business has some causal relationship with the Mayor. The argument is problematic for two reasons.
First of all, the argument is based on a gratuitous assumption. The author groundlessly assumes that the Mayor Varro is the reason of the decreased unemployment rate and the increased population. It is highly possible that there is no relationship between the Mayor and the conditions of the unemployment rate and the population. For example, it is very likely that the economy of the country is extremely well in the four years of the Mayor Varro, so Mayor Varro actully is not contribute to the good employment rate and the population. It is very arbitrary conclusion to say that Mayor is the reason of the decreased unemployment rate and the increased population. In the second place, the conclusion of the argument suffers an oversimplification fallacy. The arguer commends that the Mayor is the only reason of the business condition, which may be affected by other factors like bad management control, wrong decisions of marketing, or even the quality of the products,etc. If so, just voting and reelecting Varro to be the Mayor can not serve the citizen very well. In conclusion, the argument is not completely sound. The evidence of the increased unemployment rate of and the decreased population does not little to proove the conlusion that Varro should be reelected Mayor again. Ultimately the argument might have been strenthened by offer other evidence to show that Mayor does help to the economy of the city and show the real causes of the changed of unemployment rate and the population.
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这还是第一篇，超时，还是一边看材料一边写的。。。羞愧阿
大家帮忙改改， 鞠躬！
[此贴子已经被作者于2006-10-3 1:09:49编辑过] | 
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发表于 2006-10-2 23:07:00
