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非常感谢
13. The following appeared as part of a campaign to sell advertising time on a local radio station to local businesses.
“The Cumquat Cafe began advertising on our local radio station this year and was delighted to see its business increase by 10 percent over last year’s totals. Their success shows you how you can use radio advertising to make your business more profitable.”
The arguer predicts that radio advertising will help businesses in general become more profitable. This prediction relies on the observation that the Cumquat Café who began advertising on a local radio station this year saw its business increase by 10 percent over last year's totals. And at the same time, the arguer contributes Cumquat Cafe's entire success to radio advertising. This argument is problematic for several obvious reasons.
First, the arguer failed to eliminate other beneficial factors besides radio advertising that might have contributed to the success. It is possible that the Cumquat Café overhauled its internal operations, such as adding diversity to the menu, fastening the food processing time to shorten customers’ wait time or simply switching to a completely new cuisine to better satisfy the taste of local residents. Even without any internal improvement, Cumquat Café could have chosen another route to increase its sales. For example, management of Cumquat Café began an intensive commercial campaign that aims to promote the brand recognition in multiple media carriers, such as radio, TV and magazine. Moreover, if Cumquat Café is located in a tourist town, a better tourist season this year could be the very reason Cumquat has a better year. Because the arguer did not rule out these possibilities, the assumption is not acceptable.
Second, I would like to point out that the support that demonstrates Cumquat Café is a valid representative of businesses in general is insufficient in the argument. For a typical town, local businesses consist of service providers that spread across multiple sectors; restaurant business is only one of them. Purchasing air time from a radio station, other business sectors except restaurant are not guaranteed to see their profits soar. It could well be the case that the primary listeners of this radio station are made up by food critics. Advertising tools and mechanics, a hardware store is unlikely to see any effects. Without establishing connection between Cumquat Café and the rest of business sectors, the arguer took for granted that all local businesses will benefit from radio advertising.
To sum up, the argument is not well reasoned. To solidify the argument, the arguer should insolate radio advertising is the sole benefactor of Cumquat Cafe's business improvement this year. In addition, the arguer would have to further study the relationship between restaurant sector and business practices in general in order to show radio advertising can benefit all local businesses. | 
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发表于 2005-11-7 03:12:00
