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9. The following appeared in the opinion column of a financial magazine.
“On average, middle-aged consumers devote 39 percent of their retail expenditure to department store products and services, while for younger consumers the average is only 25 percent. Since the number of middle-aged people will increase dramatically within the next decade, department stores can expect retail sales to increase significantly during that period. Furthermore, to take advantage of the trend, these stores should begin to replace some of those products intended to attract the younger consumer with products intended to attract the middle-aged consumer.”
Attempting to demonstrate the expectation that sales of department stores will increase significantly within the next decade, the author pointed out that a higher percentage of middle-aged consumer's expenditure is spent on department store's product and services then do those of young consumer's. Based on this expectation, the author suggests that department stores should begin to replace those products intended to attract young consumers with products more attracting middle-aged ones. We may find out that at the first glance his reasoning sounds somewhat plausible, but only at the first glance. The author commits several significant logical flaws in his argument.
Let's begin with the most critical one. The author falsely bases his conclusion on the gratuitous assumption that the age of consumers is the direct cause and factor that affects their expenditure. Just because middle-aged consumers devoted 39 percent of their retail expenditure to department store products and services does not neccessarily mean that all the consumers decide the amount of money spent in department stores based on their own age. Similiarly, young consumers with a less percentage of expenditure in those stores is by no means a clear evidence that young consumers spend less simply because they are not middle-aged. Obviously, the author has ignored many more factors that affects the structure of consumer's expenditure, such as their gender, hobbies, nationality and so force.
Additionally, the athor also commited a fault of oversimplification by assuming that the consuming habbitats of middle-aged consumers will remain unchanged in the following 10 years. New technologies and business model is evolving in such a fast speed, and they greatly change our way of life. For example, ten years ago, no one could imagine that it would be possible for a housewife today to shop at home, everything from chocolates to TV sets, only with some simple mouse clicks. So does the department stores, we could not even be sure that these stores will continue to exist within the next 10 years, not to mention how popular they will be at that time.
Lastly, the evidence provided by the argument is doubtful itself, and too vague to support the author's claim. Percentage of their expenditure is not a clear measure of the amount of revenue and profits created by the consumers. Obivously, the author ignores the possiblity that young consumers may have a much higher income, and thus, higher expenditure, compared with middle-aged. Therefore, a lower percentage could mean an even higher sales. Based on this, it is unreasonable for the author to suggest replacing some of the products intended to attract younger consumers with ones attracting middled aged consumers.
In conclusion, the argument fails to provide relevant and clear evidence, and lacks a strong reasoning to support the author's expectation that in the next ten years department stores 's sales and profit will rise enormously with increased sales from middle-aged consumers , and thus could not support the suggestion based on the former.. | 
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发表于 2005-9-27 17:37:00
