AA009!请大家拍砖指点。

这次终于写够字数了，多谢小虾和judy对我的指点。大家请再看看这篇吧，写了40分钟，打字好像还有点慢。感觉废话有点多了。

The following appeared in the opinion column of a financial magazine.

`On average, middle-aged consumers devote 39 percent of their retail expenditure to department store products and services, while for younger consumers the average is only 25 percent. Since the number of middle-aged people will increase dramatically within the next decade, department stores can expect retail sales to increase significantly during that period. Furthermore, to take advantage of the trend, these stores should begin to replace some of those products intended to attract the younger consumer with products intended to attract the middle-aged consumer.~

Discuss how well reasoned you find this argument. In your discussion be sure to analyze the line of reasoning and the use of evidence in the argument. For example, you may need to consider what questionable assumptions underlie the thinking and what alternative explanations or counterexamples might weaken the conclusion. You can also discuss what sort of evidence would strengthen or refute the argument, what changes in the argument would make it more logically sound, and what, if anything, would help you better evaluate its conclusion.

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In this argument, the author concludes that department stores can expect a increase in sales in the next decade and should replace the products that attract the younger customers with those attract the middle-aged consumers.To support the conclusion, the author cites the evidence that the middle-aged consumers devote a more percentile of their retail expenditure to department store products and the service than the younger consumers do and that the number of the middle-aged people will increase within the next decade. At first glance, the idea seems to be plausible, but a careful examination can reveal several flaws from the argument.
At the first place, the authoro commits a fallacy of " all things are equal". The author reaches the conclusion based on the assumption that all the conditions will remain unchanged during the next decade. However, no evidence was shown to support such assumption. It is possibly that some factors which have great impact on the consumptions will change greatly in the next decade. For example, the current younger consumer, who spend a lower percentile in buying department store products and services, will become middle-aged people ten years later and they are not attracted by the merchandise favored by middle-aged people now. Thus, unless the author can consider all the factors, the evidence is insufficient.
At the second place, the author bases on a gratuitous assumption. The author assumes that the mount that spend by middle-aged consumers and by youths is equal. But in fact, it is not necessarily the case. For example, the younger consumers are more likely to buy some electronic products which are more expensive than the groceries bought by the middle-aged people. Consequently, even though the percentile of the young people is smaller than that of the middle-aged people, the mount of the expenditure of young people is not necessarily lower than that of the middle-aged consumers.
Third, the author reach the conclusion based on an either/or choice.The department stores' action is based on the goal of stimulating the sales. The author fails to consider other products that are more popular than the middle-aged preferrence, such as toy and food, which can attract more children. Thus, the methodology can be flawed unless other choices are considerd and ruled out.
In conclusion, the author's conclusion is not convincing because it is based on insufficient samples, gratuitous assumptions and a methodoloy of either/or choice. To make the conclusion more acceptable, the author should cites more sufficient statistics and more certain evidence to make the assumptions valid.

In this argument, the author concludes that department stores can expect a increase in sales in the next decade and should replace the products that attract the younger customers with those attract the middle-aged consumers. To support the conclusion, the author cites the evidence that the middle-aged consumers devote a more percentile of their retail expenditure to department store products and the service than the younger consumers do and that the number of the middle-aged people will increase within the next decade. At first glance, the idea seems to be plausible, but a careful examination can reveal several flaws from the argument.

At the first place, the authoro (author) commits a fallacy of " all things are equal". The author reaches the conclusion based on the assumption that all the conditions will remain unchanged during the next decade. However, no evidence was shown to support such assumption. It is possibly that some factors which have great impact on the consumptions will change greatly in the next decade. For example, the current younger consumer (consumers), who spend a lower percentile in buying department store products and services, will become middle-aged people ten years later and they are not attracted by the merchandise favored by middle-aged people now. Thus, unless the author can consider all the factors, the evidence is insufficient.

At the second place, the author bases on a gratuitous assumption. The author assumes that the mount (mount吗，应该是用amount 来表示把) that spend (that is spent) by middle-aged consumers and by youths is equal. But in fact, it is not necessarily the case. For example, the younger consumers are more likely to buy some electronic products which are more expensive than the groceries bought by the middle-aged people. Consequently, even though the percentile of the young people is smaller than that of the middle-aged people, the mount (amount) of the expenditure of young people is not necessarily lower than that of the middle-aged consumers.

Third, the author reach the conclusion based on an either/or choice. The department stores' action is based on the goal of stimulating the sales. The author fails to consider other products that are more popular than the middle-aged preferrence (preference), such as toy and food, which can attract more children. Thus, the methodology can be flawed unless other choices are considerd (considered) and ruled out.

In conclusion, the author's conclusion is not convincing because it is based on insufficient samples, gratuitous assumptions and a methodoloy (methodology) of either/or choice. To make the conclusion more acceptable, the author should cites more sufficient statistics and more certain evidence to make the assumptions valid.

觉得楼主已经写的很好了，我没什么好说的了，就是有一些打错的地方，以后注意一下。嘿嘿，加油啊，看来是得高分的nn阿！