[求助]AA038,没把握，请大家帮忙，31号杀G

38.  419

The following appeared in the editorial section of a campus newspaper.

“Because occupancy rates for campus housing fell during the last academic year, so did housing revenues. To solve the problem, campus housing officials should reduce the number of available housing units, thereby increasing the occupancy rates. Also, to keep students from choosing to live off-campus, housing officials should lower the rents, thereby increasing demand.”

Discuss how well reasoned... etc.

In this argument, the author holds the conclusion that campus housing officials should lower the rents of the campus housing, thereby increasing demand and that the officials should reduce the number of available housing units to increase the occupancy rates. At the first glance, this conclusion seems somewhat convincing, however, a further reflection will reveal the three critical fallacies it suffers from.     62

In the first place, the author posits a causal connection between the fall of the occupancy rates for campus housing and the fall of the housing revenues. Moreover, the author assumes that the increase of the occupancy rates will increase of the revenue. However, other factors besides the occupancy rates may affects the revenue. For example, the lower rental price of the house may decrease the revenue, which may not be compensated even with higher occupancy rates. Therefore, if the author provides no evidence to rule out such probabilities, the conclusion in this argument is unreliable.   96

In the second place, the author assumes that the increase of the occupancy rates may increase the demand. However, he or she provides no evidence to prove such an assumption. However, a more detailed analysis would reveal that other factors may far outweigh the occupancy rates to affects the demand. For example, it is possible that the environment of the campus houses is not good or the furniture in them may not be good, thus the demand of the houses is low. Lacking a more detailed analysis of such causes, it is presumptuous for the author to assert the conclusion.  100

Last but not the least, the author assumes that if the officials lower the rental prices, the revenues can be increase. However, the author fails to establish causal relationship between prices and revenues. There is no evidence whatever to indicate that revenues are solely dependent on prices. However, it is probable that when the prices are lowered, the number of the house that can be rented may not increase as expected. Thus, the revenues can not increase, and they may decrease in reality.   83

As it stands, the conclusion is unwarranted and misleading because the three critical fallacies. To make it more logically satisfactory, the author should provide more information about the questions that when the occupancy rate is the only factor that affects the housing revenue, whether the increase of the rates can increase the demand and whether to lower rental prices can bring the higher revenues. Only after getting such information, can we ultimately accept the conclusion of the argument.   78

去年的宿舍入住率下降，住宿收入也下降。所以学校应该减少宿舍的供应量，增加入住率；同时降低住宿费以吸引学生不要住在校外，以增加需求。

攻击点：

1、学校提高入住率的根本目的应该是提高收入，提高入住人数（入住率的分子），而不是通过降低宿舍供应量（入住率的分母），来做单纯的数字上的提高。这样反而可能会使收入降低。

2、降低住宿费是否能增加学生对宿舍的需求是有疑问的。学生有可能是因为宿舍服务、环境等因素而更偏好校外住房，价格的弹性并不大，这样降低价格，很可能并不会引起入住人数的大幅增加。

3、即使承认能引起入住人数的大幅增加（需求的增加），收入也不一定增加。降低的价格会削弱收入的增长势头。

等等，暂时想到这么多

mm的第一点攻击（入住率下降和收入减少之间没有因果联系），也是可以的，但是我感觉不是主要的错误

第二点攻击增加入住率是否能增加需求，我觉得有点问题：

题目说“To solve the problem, campus housing officials should reduce the number of available housing units, thereby increasing the occupancy rates. Also, to keep students from choosing to live off-campus, housing officials should lower the rents, thereby increasing demand.”

减少供应量，thereby增加入住率，句号。然后为了让学生们不住校外，该降低价格，thereby增加需求。

很显然作者并没有说增加入住率能增加需求。攻击这点不大妥当。

第三点正确

这篇文章字数很不错，文字功底也不错（有一点，probable好像没有possible正式，好像语法中是这样的，不大确定。），模版句也很漂亮，就是中间逻辑攻击的点有点问题...

mm可以再考虑一下，看看别人的提纲...judy还有没有现成的提纲呢？？

31号加油吧！！！~~