AA031

In this argument, the author suggests transferring investments from Cola Loca to Early Bird Coffee. This suggestion is built on the assumption that demand for coffee will increase and demand for cola will decrease over the next two decades. To support this assumption, the author cites study result and demographic trend as evidence. Plausible at first sight, this conclusion actually relies on partially interpreted evidence and unsubstantiated assumptions, which render it unconvincing as it stands. A careful examination as below will reveal how untenable the arguer's conclusion is.

First of all, although trends cited in the study have remained stable for the past 40 years, there is no guarantee that the same trends  will continue over the next 20 years. The research result can only reflect habits of last generation under study. If the drinking habits of this generation change as time changes, the study result can hardly be used to predict the future. Perhaps as the whole population ages, people in their 60's now feel they are still young and they tend to continue drinking cola to show their energy and vigor. In that case, the credibility of the arguer's assumption is called into question.

Moreover, the mere fact that the number of older adults will significantly increase over the next 20 years hardly suffices to demonstrate that the demand for cola will decrease while demand for coffee will increase. The author fails to consider and rule out other factors that might account for the changes in demand for the above two drinks. For example, although demand for cola by the older group of customers might decrease, consumption of cola might hike in the youth sector. As a result, increase in the demand from young people may offset the decreasing trend, boosting sales of cola as a whole.

Finally, even if the trends given in the argument will be true over the next 20 years, it does not necessarily follow that investing in Early Bird Coffee will be more profitable than investing in Cola Loca. The author unfairly applies the general trend in the whole industry to specific companies. It is entirely possible that Cola Loca employs the right advertising strategy and enlarges its shares in the cola market. Also it might cut down its costs to a large degree. Either of these scenarios, if true, would render Cola Loca still a profitable business. Conversely, although sales for the whole coffee industry may increase, Early Bird Coffee might be losing its customers if it is not able to compete with other companies. Therefore, it is unwise to transfer investments without investigating the specific conditions of the two businesses.

To sum up, it is imprudent for the arguer to draw his conclusion simply on the basis of the evidence presented. To make a truly wise investment, the author would have to take into consideration other factors that might affect the consuming trend in the future. Also the author should further investigate the individual businesses before he applies the general trend in the industry to specific companies.

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