AAA08集思广益中参加讨论提高自己惠及他人

A8. The following appeared in a memorandum from the marketing department of Reel magazine.
“In order to determine the cause of the recent decline in sales of our magazine, we sent a survey to customers who have canceled their subscription during the last nine months. Results indicate that 80 percent of the 450 respondents feel that Reel contains too many ads. In order to retain current customers and win back customers who have canceled their subscriptions, we should reduce the number of ads. This solution will not only improve customer satisfaction but also increase our revenue by boosting magazine sales.”

1The survey is base-biased therefore doubtful.
2Other factors that might contribute to the decline of sales should be considered and ruled out.
3The increase of revenue caused by the boost of sales can be offsetted by the decrease of ads earnings.

1.. Results indicate that 80 percent of the 450 respondents feel that Reel contains too many ads.---survey is doubtful

2.In order to retain current customers and win back customers who have canceled their subscriptions, we should reduce the number of ads.This solution will not only improve customer satisfaction but also increase our revenue by boosting magazine sales.”---如果1有问题，2，也不可能成立，gratuitous assumption

怎么我才想出两个？谁补充一下

3.死活也要再想一个，就是这Reel的策略有问题.....！不知道这个写上去的话好不好？

根据楼主的提纲和TonyNN的模板还有很多前人的借鉴，将今天自己写的这篇发上来，第一次发作文上来心虚的说请不要客气，尽管扔砖！

AAA8

The conclusion endorsed in this argument is that the Reel magazine will enhance customer satisfaction as well as increase revenue by ad cutting. Several reason offered in support of this argument. First, the author cites a survey on customers who cancelled their subscriptions. Second, the author assumes that advertisment is the reason of the decline in sales and reduce those advertisment will improve revenue. On meticulous reflection, the author's line of reasoning is heavily biased for some intolerable fallacies.

In the first place, the methodology of the survey is problematic for two reasons. For one thing, we are not informed whether the survey responses were anonymous or confidential. If they were not, regardless of whether responses were truthful, the respondents might supply responses favored by their superiors who might conduct the survey. For another thing, perhaps workers who were more interested than others in the survey might be more likely to respond to the questionaire--possibly because they found the questionaire more attractive. Lacking the information about the number of customers surveyed, it is impossible to assess the validity of the survey. Both events would lead this survey unreliable, let alone about drawing the conclusion.

In the second place, the author unfairly focus only on excessive advertisment. While advertisment is a seemly important element in determining the decline in sales. The author overlooks other crucial criteria in determining decline in sales. It is possible that the country is experiencing an unfavorable economic condition and people do not like to buy any pastime mateiral like the Reel magzine. Or it is possible that there exists a new trend that people would like to read news and get other information by the new technological media rather than by conventional printing media. Without considering and ruling out the possibilities that might contribute to the decline of sales, the author reaches an absurd conclusion.

Last but not least, even if the survey is truthful and ad cutting brings higher sales, the author cannot conclude that revenue can increase subsequently. On the contrary, lower income from the ad cutting may offset the benefits from the higher sales and cause the revenue to further decrease. Unless more concrete evidence provided to demonstrate a positive relationship between these two events, the conclusion is not worthy of consideration.

To sum up, this argument is not convincing as it stands. Accordingly, it is injudicious for the author to claim that ad cutting is helpful in increasing sales and revenue of the Reel magzine. Moreover, I will still suspect this recommendation until the author finally rules out all the potentialities mentioned above.

拼写错误：advertisment-advertisement; questionaire-quenstinnaire; magzine-magazine; mateiral-material

帮我看看本人的首篇拙作，尽管提批评，多多交流，共同进步。

Based on a survey among 450 customers who indicates their unwillingness to buy the Reel Magazine again, the arguer recommends that since 80 percent of those respondents are tired of the ad in the magazine, the Reel should reduce the number of ads so as to regain the readers. Specially, the arguer emphasizes that this solution will not only enhance the satisfaction from customers but also boost the sales and increase the revenue. The reasoning in this argument is problematic in two respects.

First, the statistics cited in the memorandum is not convincing because the total number of customers of this magazine is not specified by the marketing department  who conducted the survey. It is almost impossible that it has only around 450 readers. Maybe those who complained about the ads are just the old conservative people since they by birth resist the colorful and newly articles generally presented by the ads. Therefore, the result of the survey does not sufficiently represents the general opinions of other readers who called off the subscription but did not respond to the survey for some reason. Accordingly, the conclusion above is much weaker due to the oversimplification of the survey.

Another problem with this argument is that the arguer makes a hasty generalization about the reasons influencing the profits of the magazine. He assumes that the number of the readers is the sole decisive factor. This assumption is gratuitous because it is probable that the total sales from the augment of the readers can not make up the reduction of sales due to the decline of ads. in the magazine. In addition, there are many other factors that are crucial to a successful magazine. For example, whether its contents is popular among the majority of the readers and whether it is published in time and regularly. Moreover, maybe the newly higher price of the magazine is not accepted by the customers.

以下是引用hirko在2005-7-2 10:18:00的发言：

根据楼主的提纲和TonyNN的模板还有很多前人的借鉴，将今天自己写的这篇发上来，第一次发作文上来心虚的说请不要客气，尽管扔砖！

AAA8

The conclusion endorsed in this argument is that the Reel magazine will enhance customer satisfaction as well as increase revenue by ad cutting. Several reason offered    好象缺一个are      in support of this argument. First, the author cites a survey on customers who cancelled their subscriptions. Second, the author assumes that advertisment is the reason of the decline in sales and reduce those advertisment will improve revenue. On meticulous reflection, the author's line of reasoning is heavily biased for some intolerable fallacies.

这个是固定用法吗？怎么感觉和后面的句子逻辑上有点不大配呢？再斟酌下？

In the first place, the methodology of the survey is problematic for two reasons. For one thing, we are not informed whether the survey responses were anonymous or confidential.

anonymous 和confidential 好象不是whether ... or...的关系吧？

If they were not, regardless of whether responses were truthful, the respondents might supply responses favored by their superiors who might conduct the survey.

这句话是什么意思呢？

For another thing, perhaps workers who were more interested than others in the survey might be more likely to respond to the questionaire--possibly because they found the questionaire more attractive. Lacking the information about the number of customers surveyed, it is impossible to assess the validity of the survey. Both events would lead this survey unreliable, let alone about drawing the conclusion.

In the second place, the author unfairly focus only on excessive advertisment. While advertisment is a seemly important element in determining the decline in

seemingly吧？

sales. The author overlooks other crucial criteria in determining decline in sales. It is possible that the country is experiencing an unfavorable economic condition and people do not like to buy any pastime mateiral like the Reel magzine. Or it is possible that there exists a new trend that people would like to read news and get other information by the new technological media rather than by conventional printing media. Without considering and ruling out the possibilities that might contribute to the decline of sales, the author reaches an absurd conclusion.

这段的时态恐怕要斟酌一下。

Last but not least, even if the survey is truthful and ad cutting brings higher sales, the author cannot conclude that revenue can increase subsequently. On the contrary, lower income from the ad cutting may offset the benefits from the higher sales and cause the revenue to further decrease. Unless more concrete evidence provided to demonstrate a positive relationship between these two events, the conclusion is not worthy of consideration.

To sum up, this argument is not convincing as it stands. Accordingly, it is injudicious for the author to claim that ad cutting is helpful in increasing sales and revenue of the Reel magzine. Moreover, I will still suspect this recommendation until the author finally rules out all the potentialities mentioned above.

拼写错误：advertisment-advertisement; questionaire-quenstinnaire; magzine-magazine; mateiral-material

问题都不大。练习一下多留心一下就好了。总体还是不错的呵呵。时态的问题你可以搜索一下小女公子的帖子。

呵呵，比较困，看的比较快。但是可以很负责任的说写的还是粉不错的。注意时态的一致，第一段个人认为有些地方应该用过去式。

严重感谢那么晚楼主还抽空看我们的劣作！

根据TonyNN的模板中对SURVEY诚实性那段的，感觉句子够长挺唬人的就用上了，truthful我想我用错了，本来想表达前面那句的意思，时间一紧张就瞎凑了个……想表达的还是“如果调查结果是公开的话，被调查者会受比他上级的人的影响。完了自己也犯了逻辑错误的说……

感觉有点不对但又说不上来，“是不是”用whether不对吗？我想想想想。。。

最后还是要谢谢楼主！祝好梦！

PS:还有一个问题想请教，写ARGUMENT的时候列每段最好是按照题目中叙述的顺序还是说按错误的严重性来排段呢？以前上XDF时老师说后者比较符合老外的心理，好像这题的survey is doubtful出现再最前，可新东方的老师说是弱攻击应该放在最后，但我觉得要在考试的时候按着顺序来分析的话就流畅些，但不知道这样会不会有影响

这两天在狂写作文，贴一篇，请指出不足之处，先谢谢了！！

A8. The following appeared in a memorandum from the marketing department of Reel magazine.
“In order to determine the cause of the recent decline in sales of our magazine, we sent a survey to customers who have canceled their subscription during the last nine months. Results indicate that 80 percent of the 450 respondents feel that Reel contains too many ads. In order to retain current customers and win back customers who have canceled their subscriptions, we should reduce the number of ads. This solution will not only improve customer satisfaction but also increase our revenue by boosting magazine sales.”

The conclusion in the argument is that to improve customer satisfaction and to increase the revenue, the magazine should reduce the number of ads. To support the conclusion, the author pointed out that 80 percent of 450 respondents to a survey, which is target at customers who have canceled their subscription during the last nine months, complained that they canceled the subscription because there were too many ads in the magazine. The recommended strategy will not have the desired results if the following questionable assumptions are not made.

First, the line of the reasoning is that the author assumed that the view of the respondents were representative of all the customers who have canceled the subscription. However, this assumption is hasty. If, for example, there were total 500 customers who canceled the subscription, then the 80 percent of the 450 respondents were strong indication that the decline of subscription was caused by too many ads. But if total 5000 customers canceled the subscription and only 450 attributed their cancellation to ads, the view of these respondents’ accounted only a very small ratio and not representative of all the customers and therefore was biased.

Second, the strategy that the magazine should cut ads in order to retain current customers is flawed. The author overlooked the possibility that many of the current customers subscribe the magazine because they had interested in the ads. They might regard these ads in the magazine as business opportunities to find new partner, to learn the industry information, or just to relax themselves by reading the nice printing. Cutting ads will press these readers to cancel their subscription.

And finally, the author’s claim that cutting ads in the magazine will increase the revenue by boosting the sales is not convincing. Common sense tells us that the revenue of a magazine comes primarily from two sources: advertising space sale and customers’ subscription fee. It might be true that some former subscribers would be attracted back by cutting ads in magazine and therefore sales revenue from customers’ subscription would be increased. But if some ads were eliminated from the magazine, then the revenue from sale of advertising space would inevitably decrease. If the loss of decreased revenue from ads were more than the increase of subscription, then cutting ads will not increase the revenue.

In conclusion, the evidence cited by author is not sufficient to conclude that reducing the ads would improve the customer satisfaction, and the revenue as well. To make the argument logically acceptable, more information should be provided to prove that the view of the respondents was representative of all the customers. Furthermore, the author should make the questionable assumption that the revenue from sale of advertising space would not decline by reducing the number of ads in the magazine.

看了作者的评语， 仔细琢磨了一下，第一段中对文中观点的转述是应该用过去时，多谢！大家共勉共进！