[求助]大全-I-8

Investing in real estate would be a profitable venture at this time. A survey in House magazine revealed that 85% of the magazine’s readers are planning to buy a second home over the next few years. A study of the real estate industry, however, revealed that the current supply of homes could only provide for 65% of that demand each year.

8.     Which of the following, if true, reveals a weakness in the evidence cited above?

(A) Real estate is a highly labor-intensive business.

(B) Home builders are not evenly distributed across the country.

(C) The number of people who want second homes has been increasing each year for the past ten years.

(D) Readers of House magazine are more likely than most people to want second homes.(E) House magazine includes articles about owning a second home as well as articles about building a second home.

答案是D；但我觉得D是支持。不解为何B不对呢？

我的思路是：

结论：投资房产是有利可图的。

原因：1.House杂志的读者有85%想买第二套房子；2.研究认为每年的供应量只能满足65%的需求。

请nn帮小的分析一下，我错在哪？多谢！

其实看到样本统计，首先想到的就是样本的可信性，就像七宗罪里说的。

d是一个非常好的反对，也非常典型。

是不是这么理解：

如D所说，因此，上述结论成立的前提就是：该杂志的读者比别人更想要买第二套房子。也就是一个assumption。

从问题看，有点像weaken，但实际上是一个assumption，不知道我分析的对不对？请指教！

I think that (D) is not an assumption. (D) is used to weaken the assumption of this argument. The assumption of this argument is that readers of House magazine can be used as a sample to represent the need of all people. However, there is no evidence to show that those readers can fully represent other people. In fact, it is highly possible that only 50% or less people as a whole want to buy a second house and thus current supply will be enough to meet the demand, making it unprofitable to invest in real estate. So, the weakness of this argument is that people who read House magazine and hence accept the survey will be more likely to show that they want to buy a second house because that is why they read House magazine!

65% of that demand each year中的that 指代什么？我理解的是 85% of the magazine’s readers所要求的second home。 如果现在的supply只能满足其中的65%, 不论magazine’s readers是否具有代表性，都能证明房子的紧缺.

说白了，这道题我就没想明白，请大家指教，谢谢！

65% of that demand each year中的that 指代什么？我理解的是 85% of the magazine’s readers所要求的second home。 如果现在的supply只能满足其中的65%, 不论magazine’s readers是否具有代表性，都能证明房子的紧缺.

说白了，这道题我就没想明白，请大家指教，谢谢！

文中所说“65% of that demand each year”是指每年整体需求量的65%；

而杂志的调查“85% of the magazine’s readers”只是读者的85%，我想应该这样理解

我想刚才的表述还不是很清楚，下面详细说明一下：

作者的论据是：85%的读者想买；

使用的是一个小样本：小样本的基数是读者，想买的比例是85%。

作者的论点是：供给只能满足整体的65%需求；

使用的则是一个大样本：大样本的基数是整体，如果整体想买的是85%，则现有供给（只有65%）不能满足85%。

OK，现在可以很清楚，作者的assumption是：小样本和大样本的是一样的需求比例。

weaken就是D：指出大样本和小样本的不同