prep2-8关于原油那题

8.    (24449-!-item-!-188;#058&001338)

Which of the following most logically completes the argument?

Utrania was formerly a major petroleum exporter, but in recent decades economic stagnation and restrictive regulations inhibited investment in new oil fields.  In consequence, Utranian oil exports dropped steadily as old fields became depleted.  Utrania's currently improving economic situation, together with less-restrictive regulations, will undoubtedly result in the rapid development of new fields.  However, it would be premature to conclude that the rapid development of new fields will result in higher oil exports, because __________.

(A) the price of oil is expected to remain relatively stable over the next several years

(B) the improvement in the economic situation in Utrania is expected to result in a dramatic increase in the proportion of Utranians who own automobiles

(C) most of the investment in new oil fields in Utrania is expected to come from foreign sources

(D) new technology is available to recover oil from old oil fields formerly regarded as depleted

(E) many of the new oil fields in Utrania are likely to be as productive as those that were developed during the period when Utrania was a major oil exporter

这题答案是B，B是说国内用油的人多了，所以有可能不能result in higher exports,但是我觉得E也对呀，有很多新油田（是现在唯一的供油来源，因为原来的都枯竭了）和原来的油条相比产量都一样，也有可能不能result in higher exports啊？请牛牛解惑

真服了你了, 我也是这么错的.

it would be premature to conclude that the rapid development of new fields will result in higher oil exports

我觉得结论中已经说了a不一定导致b, 那么我们找的答案就应该是能在二者中起桥梁作用的. b项显然符合.

从这个角度看, e项就不沾边了, 产量多少是一回事, 出口多少是另一回事!!我以前产量多, 可以只出口一小部分啊, 现在产量就算少了, 我也可以出口的比过去多

把整篇翻译一下吧。

Utrania was formerly a major petroleum exporter, but in recent decades economic stagnation and restrictive regulations inhibited investment in new oil fields.  In consequence, Utranian oil exports dropped steadily as old fields became depleted.  Utrania's currently improving economic situation, together with less-restrictive regulations, will undoubtedly result in the rapid development of new fields.  However, it would be premature to conclude that the rapid development of new fields will result in higher oil exports, because __________.

U传统上是个主要的石油出口国， 但是过去十多年停滞不前的经济(economic stagnation)和限制性的政策制约了对新油田的投资。结果，伴随着老油田的逐渐枯竭，U的原油出口下降严重。 U最近的经济起步，除了越来越少的政策限制外，最主要地源于新油田的开发。但是，简单地认为快速发展的新油田必然会导致更高的石油出口是不成熟的， 因为    

逻辑脉络：新油田的开发（X） ------>  U最近的经济起步 (Y)

                however，新油田的开发 (X) ---/--->  U更高的石油出口 (Z)

问： 为什么？

B说：the improvement in the economic situation in Utrania is expected to result in a dramatic increase in the proportion of Utranians who own automobiles

U最近的经济起步会导致许多人去拥有自己的汽车

题目的逻辑脉络是X---->Y, X--/-->Z, 而B说的就是Y----->削弱Z的情况发生了，B很好地解释了这个however

E说: many of the new oil fields in Utrania are likely to be as productive as those that were developed during the period when Utrania was a major oil exporter

很多新的油田很有可能像过去U还是主要出口国时的老油田一样多产

E实际上是一种他因，它即使按照你的思路， 可以导致出口不增多，但是不能解释这个however，也就是不能把前面的部分串联到一起；何况，你的这个思路也不是100%的准确，就像我之前说的

U传统上是个主要的石油出口国， 但是过去十多年停滞不前的经济(economic stagnation)和限制性的政策制约了对新油田的投资。结果，伴随着老油田的逐渐枯竭，U的原油出口下降严重。 U最近的经济起步，除了越来越少的政策限制外，最主要地源于新油田的开发。但是，简单地认为快速发展的新油田必然会导致更高的石油出口是不成熟的， 因为    

逻辑脉络：新油田的开发（X） ------>  U最近的经济起步 (Y)

                however，新油田的开发 (X) ---/--->  U更高的石油出口 (Z)

问： 为什么？

B说：the improvement in the economic situation in Utrania is expected to result in a dramatic increase in the proportion of Utranians who own automobiles

U最近的经济起步会导致许多人去拥有自己的汽车

题目的逻辑脉络是X---->Y, X--/-->Z, 而B说的就是Y----->削弱Z的情况发生了，B很好地解释了这个however

E说: many of the new oil fields in Utrania are likely to be as productive as those that were developed during the period when Utrania was a major oil exporter

很多新的油田很有可能像过去U还是主要出口国时的老油田一样多产

E实际上是一种他因，它即使按照你的思路， 可以导致出口不增多，但是不能解释这个however，也就是不能把前面的部分串联到一起；何况，你的这个思路也不是100%的准确，就像我之前说的

好晕啊，写了这么多，谢谢你，我漫漫琢磨下~~

我觉得这题如果在考场上，就象你说的那样，最快的判断就是要想到GMAC认为出口前的最靠近的一个环节是国内消耗，不管产量多高，只要我消耗很高的话，出口就要下降了

西西，是有点吓人啊~看到后面有重复的我就开心多了^^因为不用看那么多了

B选项是说，new fields要先满足drmatic increase in U，就是内需，而不是出口，所以削弱原文。

E选项说，很多new fields的产量可能保持不变，这个many和likely就不够有说服力，而且就算产量都保证了，这和result in higher oil exports也没什么关系，外需不知道，利润空间有无变化也不知道……