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[阅读小分队] 【每日阅读训练第四期——速度越障10系列】【10-5】经管

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发表于 2012-11-8 19:24:45 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
【速度】


【计时一】


Why the economy may be better than you think
By Steven Pearlstein

This may come as something of a surprise to regular readers of this column, but I’m feeling rather optimistic these days about the U.S. economy.

It’s not that the statistical evidence (lower unemployment rate, a spike in housing starts) is so compelling. Ours remains a weak recovery that looks good largely because it has persisted in the face of political dysfunction, rising oil prices, a looming fiscal contraction and global headwinds. In the short term, the possibility of a quarter or two of near-zero growth cannot be ruled out.

What I tend to focus on, however, are the longer-term structural adjustments and rebalancing in our post-bubble economy that need to occur before a robust and sustainable recovery can begin. And from that perspective, the signs are positive.

For starters, as bad as things may seem here at home, they look even worse just about everywhere else. After years of watching the momentum and the investment capital flowing out of the country, it’s now encouraging to see it begin to flow back our way. Not only is that helping to hold down interest rates and lift stock prices, but there are signs of renewed interest on the part of foreign firms in expanding production and operations in the United States. That translates into more jobs and higher incomes.

A decade ago, places such as China and India seemed to have all the mojo — so much so, in fact, that they wound up with bubble economies of their own. Now, in face of excess capacity and sharply higher operating costs, that excitement has waned, along with the flow of capital and technology. Even the Chinese have decided to get serious about rebalancing, allowing their famously manipulated currency to rise to something closer to its real market value while redirecting some of its trade surplus with the United States from Treasury bonds to direct investments in American companies.

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【计时二】


There is a growing realization among investors and global executives that China and India still lack the political and institutional infrastructure necessary for an advanced economy. Another round of reforms will be required before those countries will see a return to the growth rates of the past decade.

Europe is a different story. The bubble years allowed much of Europe to avoid making the kind of structural changes necessary to put its social welfare system on a sustainable fiscal path and reform its labor and product markets. The euro crisis — which is both a banking crisis and a sovereign debt crisis — has forced Europeans to begin addressing those issues. But the noisy process will take years to complete, if for no other reason than it requires Europeans to accept, at least in the short run, a lower standard of living. That Europe will dip back into recession is all but certain.

My optimism about the U.S. economy, however, is not based simply on the woes of others, but also on the restructuring momentum I see here at home.

After an extended period of denial and pushback, the financial sector is finally accepting the reality that it had become too big, too risky and too generous with its compensation. Under pressure from shareholders and regulators, big banks are shrinking their leverage and balance sheets, off-loading their hedge fund-like activities, shedding employees and reducing the percentage of net revenue set aside for compensation.

“There’s way too much capacity, and compensation is way too high,” James Gorman, chief executive of Morgan Stanley, recently told the Financial Times.

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【计时三】

Last week’s sacking of Citigroup chief executive Vikram Pandit in favor of a more traditional commercial banker was less a commentary on Pandit’s efforts to steer the bailed-out bank back into solvency than it was a strategic statement by outside directors about where the bank needs to go in the future. It’s only a matter of time before Bank of America’s Brian Moynihan meets the same fate.

And while it’s taken years, Wall Street is finally being forced to accept a larger share of the cost of its reckless behavior in the form of billion-dollar court settlements with regulators, shareholders and customers. I’m not so naive as to think these settlements will transform Wall Street’s culture, but the pain in terms of money lost and careers ruined has been sufficient to have tamed it for a while.

Wall Street also hasn’t seen the last of its regulatory challenges. Recently, several of the normally sober and conservative presidents of regional Federal Reserve Banks have spoken publicly about the need to “break up” the big banks while the Fed’s lead official on bank regulation, Governor Dan Tarullo, has suggested a cap on the amount of money big banks can borrow outside of their normal deposits。

Surely, no sector of the U.S. economy is in greater need of structural reform than health care, with its world-beating price tag and mediocre outcomes. That reform is now shifting into high gear. Even before Obamacare has kicked in, many doctors, hospitals and insurers are moving to reorganize the way care is delivered and paid for. In these new “accountable care” organizations, doctors will be on salary and medical records will be electronic, facilitating coordination of care and adherence to best practices.

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【剩余部分】

Health policy experts have been kicking these ideas around for decades, but when you talk to them these days, you get a real sense of excitement that they finally are taking hold. Big, established firms are investing big money to develop staffs and systems, while venture capitalists and private-equity firms are placing significant bets in the hope of getting in on the ground floor. In the short term, this process is likely to generate growth in jobs and income. Longer term, the potential to save money and boost productivity are enormous.

Less far along, but no less inevitable, are the long-awaiting structural reforms to the American system of education. If you’ve been following the news — the teachers strike in Chicago, the brouhaha at the University of Virginia and the steady stream of stories about the debt load of college graduates — you get the clear sense that the debate is no longer over whether the education establishment will be forced to bring down costs and improve educational outcomes. The only debate now is about how and how much.

It’s no longer out of bounds to talk about faculty productivity and accountability, or tying pay or promotion to measurable outcomes. Charter schools are now an accepted part of the mix, and resistance to the use of technology is crumbling. To the delight of some and horror of others, private capital is lining up to invest.

The granddaddy of structural problems, of course, is the federal budget deficit, but even there I’m hopeful that a solution may come sooner than later. Republicans and Democrats had hoped that this year’s would be a “clarifying election”— that the voters would finally decide to back one approach or the other. But with two weeks to go, it looks like the only thing that the voters are willing to clarify is that they don’t back either approach and would prefer that each side compromise.

There is already a bipartisan majority in the Senate prepared to accept that judgment, with a working group quietly crafting such a compromise. And if, as expected, Republicans lose a few seats in the House and fail to take control of the Senate, House Speaker John Boehner, with strong backing from the business community, may be willing to put his political career on the line by delivering 100 Republican votes for a grand budget bargain — one that raises about a trillion dollars in additional revenue over the next decade without raising tax rates.

The Australian foreign minister, Bob Carr, was recently quoted as saying the United States was “one budget deal away from restoring its global preeminence.” It looks pretty much that way to me as well.

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【计时四】


U.S. economy set for better times whether Obama or Romney wins
By Rich Miller and Steve Matthews

Mitt Romney says Barack Obama’s policies will consign the U.S. to an extended period of sluggish economic growth, at best. The president says his Republican challenger’s plans will sow the seeds of another mammoth recession. Both are wrong.

No matter who wins the election tomorrow, the economy is on course to enjoy faster growth in the next four years as the headwinds that have held it back turn into tailwinds. Consumers are spending more and saving less after reducing household debt to the lowest since 2003. Home prices are rebounding after falling more than 30 percent from their 2006 highs. And banks are increasing lending after boosting equity capital by more than $300 billion since 2009.

" The die is cast for a much stronger recovery,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist in West Chester, Pennsylvania, for Moody’s Analytics Inc. He sees growth this year and next at about 2 percent before doubling to around 4 percent in both 2014 and 2015 as consumption, construction and hiring all pick up.

The big proviso, according to Zandi and Yale University professor Ray Fair, is how the president-elect tackles the task of shrinking the $1.1 trillion federal-budget deficit. The Congressional Budget Office has warned that the U.S. will suffer a recession if more than $600 billion in scheduled government- spending reductions and tax increases -- the so-called fiscal cliff -- take effect next year.

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【计时五】


Positive Signs

" There are a lot of things that are positive going forward for the economy,” Fair said. “Hopefully, we can get a handle on the deficit” without dragging down growth too much.

While concern about the threatened fiscal squeeze may hit gross domestic product this quarter and next, the expansion should pick up strength by the middle of 2013, said Eric Green, a Philadelphia-based fund manager at Penn Capital Management Co. GDP “will surprise to the upside,” said Green, whose firm manages $7.2 billion. “We could grow at a 3 to 4 percent rate over the next couple of years.”

Hiring in the U.S. increased more than forecast in October as employers looked past slowing global growth and political gridlock at home. In the last jobs report before tomorrow’s election, the Labor Department said a net 171,000 workers were added to payrolls, beating the 125,000 median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

‘Defensive’ Stocks

Shares of manufacturers, materials producers and energy and technology companies should rise as the expansion gains speed, Green said. More " defensive” stocks that aren’t as affected by rising demand, such as real-estate investment trusts, health- care providers and consumer staples, won’t perform as well. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is up about 12 percent this year.

The U.S. also should benefit next year from a rebound in the rest of the world, according to Green, especially as China, the second-largest economy, “seems to be bottoming out.”

Chinese manufacturing expanded in October for the first time in three months, according to a purchasing managers’ index compiled by the government. A similar gauge from HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics posted the biggest gain since 2010.

While manufacturing in the euro area continues to contract, the region “can’t be in a recession forever,” said Allen Sinai, chief executive officer of Decision Economics Inc. in New York. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg see the 17-nation group expanding 0.2 percent next year and 1.2 percent in 2014.

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" Albatross" Deficits

U.S. growth will pick up only gradually during the next few years, to a little more than 3 percent in 2015, held back by an “albatross” of deficits and debt, Sinai said.

Mohamed El-Erian, chief executive officer of Pacific Investment Management Co., is more downbeat, emphasizing the structural challenges the U.S. faces rather than the cyclical forces Zandi highlights.

" The prospect is for 2 percent growth,” said El-Erian, whose Newport Beach, California-based company manages more than $1.9 trillion in assets. “The downside risks are larger than the upside risks.”

He argues that policy makers must tackle such “deep-seated problems” as elevated youth and long-term unemployment and a broken housing-finance system to enable the U.S. to grow faster. And while the president-elect will face an economy in much better shape than four years ago, he and the Federal Reserve will have less leeway to support expansion by employing fiscal and monetary policies, as they have already been loosened considerably, El-Erian said.

Optimistic Households

Households seem increasingly inclined to side with the optimists, preferring to see the economic glass as half-full rather than half-empty. Consumer confidence climbed in October to a more than four-year high as Americans took comfort from an improving job market, according to figures from the New York- based Conference Board.

Adam and Allyson Straight are among those looking ahead to more prosperous times. Adam, a 35-year-old official at the Georgia Dome stadium, and his 27-year-old wife bought a $227,000 three-bedroom house in Roswell, Georgia, on Oct. 26 after renting

for the past 10 months. They moved in the following weekend and spent $2,500 on new living-room and dining-room furniture.

" I am optimistic,” said Allyson, a civil attorney. The economy “seems to be moving in a better direction.”

Romney disagrees. He told supporters in Ames, Iowa, on Oct. 26 that Obama has the nation headed in the wrong direction, with “trickle-down government policies that have failed us.

Better Future

" It’s time for new, bold changes that measure up to the moment and that can bring America’s families the certainty that the future will be better than the past,” he said.

The day before, Obama said Romney is the one proposing policies that have failed, such as lower tax rates for all Americans, including the wealthiest.

" We just tried that philosophy in the decade before I took office,” the president said in Cleveland, Ohio. “And we know what happened.”

Pent-up demand, more than presidential policies, will drive the expansion forward in the next few years, said Peter Hooper, chief economist at Deutsche Bank Securities in New York and a former Fed official. Households that put off purchases during the recession and its aftermath are starting to buy amid rising optimism about their prospects.

Retail sales jumped 1.1 percent in September as Americans snapped up goods from cars to iPhones, according to Commerce Department data. The gain followed a 1.2 percent increase in August, the best back-to-back showing since late 2010.

" Strong" Quarter


While U.S. sales of cars and light-duty trucks will suffer temporarily from the disruption caused by Hurricane Sandy, the industry “will have a strong fourth quarter and continue growing next year,” Kurt McNeil, vice president of U.S. sales for General Motors Co. in Detroit, said in a Nov. 1 conference call with analysts.

Easier credit terms are contributing to the rise in consumer spending. Banks reported that they continued to ease standards on auto loans and credit cards last quarter, according to a Fed survey of senior lending officers.

Financial institutions “are very well capitalized,” Zandi said. “They are slowly but surely lowering their lending standards.”

Commercial banks and savings institutions recorded a 21 percent rise in net income for April-June, the 12th straight quarter that earnings have risen on a year-over-year basis, according to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. in Washington. The 19 biggest banks have boosted equity capital by more than $300 billion since 2009, Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said in a speech earlier this year.

Increasing Demand

Demand for auto loans and residential mortgages increased last quarter, the Fed survey found. Households are feeling more comfortable about credit after reducing their cumulative debt as a share of disposable income to 113 percent in the second quarter, the lowest in nine years, Fed figures show.

The housing market is one of the beneficiaries. New-home sales climbed 5.7 percent in September to the highest level in two years, based on Commerce Department data. Demand was 27 percent higher than a year ago.

" Clearly, demand conditions have changed for the better,” Richard Dugas, chief executive officer of PulteGroup Inc., the largest U.S. homebuilder by revenue, told analysts on Oct. 25.

The last time residential construction contributed to growth over the course of an entire year was 2005, when it accounted for 0.4 percentage point of the 3.1 percent increase in GDP. From 2006 to 2009, the homebuilding slump subtracted an average of 0.8 percentage point from the economy. Through the first three quarters of 2012, it’s contributed 0.3 point.

Distressed Properties

" Housing typically adds 1 to 2 percentage points” in a recovery, said Dean Maki, New York-based chief U.S. economist at Barclays Plc, who worked at the Fed from 1995 to 2000. As the overhang of distressed properties is cleared away, “you may get a bigger kick from housing” in 2015 and 2016, he said.

Home values already are rising. Residential real-estate prices increased in the year ended August by the most in two years, according to the S&/Case-Shiller index of property values in 20 cities.

The improvement in the housing market is alleviating one of the headwinds holding back the economy, Dennis Lockhart, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, told reporters Nov. 1.

If concerns about the U.S. fiscal cliff and European debt crisis also abate, “there would be the impetus for more economic activity, more investment and more hiring,” he said.

While tomorrow’s presidential contest “may have some influence on the decision of businesses,” more generally “I don’t think the election results per se are going to have a noticeable effect on how this economy is evolving.”

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【越障】

Inflation Bets or Deflation Hedges? The Changing Risks of Nominal Bonds.
John Y. Campbell, Adi Sunderam, and Luis M. Viceira

Are nominal government bonds risky investments, which investors must be rewarded to hold? Or are they safe investments, whose price movements are either inconsequential or even beneficial to investors as hedges against other risks? US Treasury bonds performed well as hedges during the financial crisis of 2008.9, but the opposite was true in the early 1980.s. The purpose of this paper is to explore such changes over time in the risks of nominal government bonds.

Many alternative measures of asset-class risk are available in the empirical finance literature. In this paper we concentrate on the comovement between nominal bond returns and aggregate stock returns, because this comovement can be measured using high-frequency data, because the aggregate stock market conveniently summarizes the state of the real economy, and because comovement with the stock market is the measure of risk in a particularly well known and simple model, the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM). Figure 1, an update of a similar figure in Viceira (2012), shows the history of the realized beta (regression coefficient) of 10-year nominal zero- coupon Treasury bonds on the CRSP value-weighted stock index, calculated using a rolling three-month window of daily data.

Figure 1 displays a great deal of high-frequency variation, much of which is attributable to noise in the realized beta. But it also shows substantial low-frequency movements, with values close to zero in the mid-1960.s and mid-1970.s, much higher values averaging around 0.4 in the 1980.s, a spike in the mid-1990.s, and negative average values in the 2000.s. During the two downturns of 2001.3 and 2008.9, the average realized beta of Treasury bonds was about -0.2. Thus from peak to trough, the realized beta of Treasury bonds has declined by about 0.6 and has changed its sign.

Nominal bond returns respond both to expected inflation and to real interest rates. A natural question is whether the pattern shown in Figure 1 reflects a changing beta of inflation with the stock market, or a changing beta of real interest rates with the stock market. Figure 2 summarizes the comovement of inflation shocks with stock returns, using a rolling three-year window of quarterly data and a first-order quarterly vector autoregression for inflation, stock returns, and the three-month Treasury bill yield to calculate inflation shocks. Because high inflation is associated with high bond yields and low bond returns, the figure shows the beta of realized deflation shocks (the negative of inflation shocks) which should move in the same manner as the bond return beta reported in Figure 1. Indeed, Figure 2 shows a similar history for the deflation beta as for the nominal bond beta.

Real interest rates also play a role in changing nominal bond risks. In the period since 1997, when long-term Treasury in.ation-protected securities (TIPS) were .rst issued, Campbell, Shiller, and Viceira (2009) report that TIPS have had a predomi- nantly negative beta with stocks. Like the nominal bond beta, the TIPS beta was particularly negative in the downturns of 2001.3 and 2008.9. Thus not only the stock-market covariances of nominal bond returns, but also the covariances of two proximate drivers of those returns, in.ation and real interest rates, change over time and occasionally switch sign.

Despite the salience of these phenomena, the enormous literature on the Treasury bond market has paid little attention to them. This paper begins to .ll this gap in the literature. We make three contributions. First, we write down a simple term structure model that captures time-variation in the covariances of inflation and real interest rates, and therefore of nominal and inflation-indexed Treasury bond returns, with the real economy and the stock market. Importantly, the model allows these covariances, and the associated risk premia, to change sign. It also incorporates more traditional influences on Treasury bond yields, specifically, real interest rates and both transitory and temporary components of expected inflation. The basic version of the model uses a particularly simple homoskedastic specification of the stochastic discount factor (SDF) that holds constant the aggregate price of risk, or aggregate risk aversion. This allows us to ask how much variation in bond risk premia can be generated purely by time-variation in the quantity of bond risk.

Second, we estimate the parameters of the model using postwar quarterly US time series for nominal and in.ation-indexed bond yields, stock returns, realized and forecast inflation, and realized second moments of bond and stock returns calculated from daily data within each quarter. The use of realized second moments, unusual in the term structure literature, forces our model to .t the historically observed changes in risks. Third, we use the estimated model to describe how the changing stock- market covariance of bonds should have altered bond risk premia and the shape of the Treasury yield curve. The goal is not to give a complete description of time- varying risk premia, but to focus on the potential contribution from changing bond risk. Together, these three parts of our analysis begin to incorporate bond-stock covariance into financial economists’ understanding of bond pricing.

The organization of the paper is as follows. Section 2 reviews the related literature. Section 3 presents our model of the real and nominal term structures of interest rates. Section 4 describes our estimation method and presents parameter estimates and historical fitted values for the unobservable state variables of the model. Section 5 discusses the implications of the model for the shape of the yield curve and the movements of risk premia on nominal bonds. Section 6 concludes. An Appendix to this paper available online (Campbell, Sunderam, and Viceira 2010) presents details of the model solution and additional empirical results.

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发表于 2012-11-8 20:15:25 | 显示全部楼层
辛苦Spencer了!沙发哇~

今天的小分队好给力,质量都很高!不过今天的越障我看着挺吃力,结构框架挺清晰的,细节不太抓得住。

2'02"
Economy in the U.S. is getting recovered, money starts flowing back to domestic market.
1'23"
Comparing with ecnomic situation with China, India and Europe, the author finds out America banks realize the opportunities of theirs to get increased.
1'40"
How the reform effect ecnomic in the U.S.
Rest 2'51"
Economic has close relationship with policy, especially the election lately in the US. Republicans have lost some seats in Senate to acquire the control over  the policy reforming.
1'27"
No matter who will win the debate, Romney or Obama, American ecnomic will grow . Because the debt rate of buying house is decreasing, people will save less and pay more than before.
2'10"
Some positive signs show American ecnomic will grow soon surprisely. And manufacturies in China and Europe also benefit the U.S. market.
Rest 6'50"
From serval facets, American ecnomic will go up.

Obstacle 5'35"
Main Idea: explore changes in the risks of nominal government bonds.
Author's attitude: Neutral
Article structure:
1) Background introduction about the paper.
2) Introduction of the methodologies and data:
-- two figures.
-- interest rate...
3) headings of 3 estimation.
-- write down a model...time vs. variation...
-- parameters of the model...
-- fucos on potentiaol contribution from changing bond risk...
4) Paper structure: Section 2-6...
发表于 2012-11-8 20:21:13 | 显示全部楼层
谢谢Spencer,辛苦了! 占座先。。。。………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
补上作业,越障文章结构清晰,但是内容不懂啊。


速度:2:05, 1:41, 1:55+2:57, 1:28, 2:11+5:40
越障:5:52
发表于 2012-11-8 22:07:54 | 显示全部楼层
哇...  ~~ 只剩地板了么~~?!555...  spencer 辛苦!
发表于 2012-11-8 22:40:59 | 显示全部楼层
2'29
1'37
1'55
1'38
2'11
Love to read these optimistic economic prospects articles. if everything goes well, that means we are gona get job later...

很喜欢SpencerX的每周论文。真的很难。第一遍看了个结构,又看了一遍才看懂。考试希望不要这么难。。。

7'15 126
1\the paper talks about whether the nominal government bonds are beneficial or risky.
2\The paper discuss this topic concentrating the conmovement between aggregate stock returns and nominal bond returns.
3\Two figures should have been put here to show the variation through times. but unfortunately they are missed here.
4\nominal bond returns respond both to expected inflation and to real interest rates
5\real interest rates also play a role in changing nominal bond risk
6\three contributions the paper will make to literate the findings mentioned above.
- a simplized module to capture …
- estimate parameters by…
-use the module to describe how the risk is affected.
7\organization of the paper
发表于 2012-11-8 22:46:44 | 显示全部楼层
....我还在一环。。满意ing55555我还是看不太懂经济学类的文章。。
中文大概意思我懂,但是凑在一起文章要说什么啊!!!!!!!!!!

 [tr]  [td=72]速度1[/td]  [td=73]327[/td]  [td=73]2:06[/td] [/tr] [tr]  [td]速度2[/td]  [td]264[/td]  [td]1:30[/td] [/tr] [tr]  [td]速度3[/td]  [td]286+444[/td]  [td]3:58[/td] [/tr] [tr]  [td]速度4[/td]  [td]247[/td]  [td]1:03[/td] [/tr] [tr]  [td]速度5[/td]  [td]328+1016[/td]  [td]4:02[/td] [/tr] [tr]  [td]越障1[/td]  [td]952[/td]  [td]5:49[/td] [/tr]
发表于 2012-11-8 23:04:16 | 显示全部楼层
谢谢spencer.貌似文章很长啊。先占座~~~
2'02, 1'41, 1'40, 2'54, 1'47, 2'02; 6'06
发表于 2012-11-8 23:27:35 | 显示全部楼层
很喜欢SpencerX的每周论文。真的很难。第一遍看了个结构,又看了一遍才看懂。考试希望不要这么难。。。

-- by 会员 peill (2012/11/8 22:40:59)



握爪啊,鱼妹妹,我还以为只有我回读呢。泪啊泪的,这看得我叫一个崩溃。抱抱~
发表于 2012-11-8 23:28:23 | 显示全部楼层
2:20
the economy in US should be optimistic because there is a sign that after a bad situation, then it will comes a good situation.
1:57
chian.india and european each have their own problems, and the restructure of the US indicate a optimistic trend of US's economy.
2:23
A strike on WALL Street, and a reform in Health care.
2:02

no matter who win the election, the economy in USA will boom in recent years.
3:01

sorry i don‘t know what it said about。


OBSTACEL:
explore what determine the risk of the bond.

other literature didn't notice these factors but this paper will full this gap.in three ways.

what this paper contains.


figure 1 shows a fluctuation of the Treasury Bonds.

bond return respond to the expected inflation and real interest rates.

 rate also indicate the risk of the bond.
15:59..读这篇文章的时候感觉是在一个单词一个单词的崩,根本看不出意群。。。但是看杨鹏长难句还没什么问题。。
这是怎么回事啊。。
发表于 2012-11-9 00:23:41 | 显示全部楼层
真心希望各位牛牛们分享下阅读经验:对于菜鸟新手来说,速度部分快速读完后不知所云时,越障部分耐住读下来信息支离破碎时,都该怎么办啊?
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